GMP96 PEP Proposal Outline

Acknowledgments

I have read many books and most often race through or ignored the acknowledgments sections. With the completion of this paper I can now more fully recognize why an author feels the need to include this section. For myself anyway, this paper would be so incomplete without an acknowledgment of those who helped me as to be nearly meaningless, not to mention ungrateful of advice and counsel, without which, this paper would be only random thoughts and drivel.

My first acknowledgments are to the two people who made up the review committee of this project: Jill Bamburg and Jed Selter. Together they provided the perfect yin and yang for this project. They challenged and supported my assumptions and conclusions as needed. They kept my enthusiasm in check when it got out of hand and boosted it when I got down. Without their continued presence and interest this paper may never have completed.

I would like to thank Ed Maher, organizational consultant to The Boeing Company, and Dr. Robert Spitzer, professor of Philosophy at Seattle University, for their help and thoughts in preparing the introduction to this project. Dr. Spitzer provided a wonderful depth of reasoning and context to the scientific literature I reviewed, while Mr. Maher helped point me at contemporary sources which suggest that there is no such thing as coincidence.

My appreciation goes out to Chris Prentiss, who as an author under the pseudonym wu wei maintains the home page from which I took, with his permission, the description of the I Ching oracle in Chapter 1 and the yarrow stalk method in Appendix A. Chris is a true believer and doesn’t need this project to know with certainty of the power of the I Ching oracle. He pointed me at a number of his books for additional reference and maintained an electronic dialogue with me throughout this project, which also helped keep me keep going when the doubts crept in.

To Emile Petrie, Director of the University of Washington Instructional Center, Stuart Anderson, a math instructor at the center and Dr. Don Comstock, Director of the Graduate Programs in Management at Antioch University Seattle, I owe the completion of the statistical and mathematical analysis provided in Chapter 7. Emile was kind enough to allow me time with one of his top math instructors. Stuart worked with me even though my lack of math knowledge must have been amusing at times. Don helped point out the weakness of the chi squared statistical approach and which led to a probability analysis from mathematical calculations provided by Stuart.

I would like to thank the cohort of GMP 98 in total. They are known here only as anonymous names, but they are the depth and breadth of this project, patiently providing the experiences for the I Ching oracle to interpret.

An odd bit of acknowledgment is due to the resource of the World Wide Web (WWW). As I came across questions needing research or areas where I could get help I found the WWW to be an incredible resource. I’ve already mentioned that the availability of published material by wu wei, I also found the Wilhelm text of the I Ching recorded on Rick Le Mon’s home page and a random number generator maintained by Professor Roger Brown of the University of Wisconsin-Madison which was used as a tool for one of my arguments of the validity of the I Ching oracle in Chapter 7. As I come to know more of the WWW, and as I use it more, I find myself thinking it will truly change the way we know our world, by opening up the possibility of these types of research projects to many more people with tools, contacts and information a button click away!

I would like to thank Gabe Hanzeli, a manager and friend at Boeing, and Dr. Myron Apilado, VP for Minority Affairs at the University of Washington. It was their recommendations which provided me entry to this program and without which I would not have come to write this paper.

My participation in this program would not have been possible without the support of my two direct superiors, Dick Wilk and Mike Riddell. The Boeing Company provides the encouragement and programs for continuing educational opportunities. Without the support of my bosses, however, opportunity could not be actualized.

To my two sons, Isaac, 12, and Aaron, 9, I owe my time. It is a great curiosity to them why their father is once again a student. At their age school isn’t the first place they would choose and why one would go back is a mystery they’ll have to come to understand in a later time. They gave me the time, however, to complete this paper, and demonstrated a patience with their dad as he did so that was far beyond their years.

And finally, I must remember a lifetime friend, Joe Hamann. He introduced me to tai ji some twenty years ago, and from there to tao and I Ching. He gave me the first step of the thousand mile journey that is now this paper and will continue forever.

Chapter 1 The Project and the I Ching
The Project

In the coming century the influence of Eastern society will increase dramatically with the emergence of China and other Pacific Rim economies. This project explores the value and usefulness of the I Ching as an intuitive tool to predict and explain meaning in everyday events. The project further asks if a systematic use of the I Ching oracle in a study setting will enhance the ability of Western society to understand and engage more effectively in working with Eastern society especially as it relates to the Western business model.

The I Ching has been the foundation of thought and belief in Eastern culture for over 2600 years. The tool of I Ching discovery is the oracle - either coins, yarrow stalk or other inanimate objects - which when manipulated are said to relate to everyday events with predictive and explanatory powers as interpreted through one of 64 patterns of broken and unbroken lines which form the 64 hexagrams of the I Ching. It is difficult to understand how the random occurrence of lines generated by the I Ching oracle could be believed to have predictive and explanatory powers, yet over 3 billion people hold some degree of belief with this notion. As business begins to interact on a regular basis with a society grounded in this belief system it is important to begin to explore this model for relevance and application in Western society and business

Our project will use the setting of GMP 98 as a study group to explore the intuitive power that may be available to predict and explain meaning through the use of the I Ching oracle.

What is proposed is to use the yarrow stalk oracle prior to and immediately after each GMP module from September 1997 through November 1997. By examining the readings associated with this method we will hope to see if the oracle can open up intuitive predictive channels prior to the GMP module events and what insights may be gained through the oracle after the GMP module events.

At the suggestion of Ed Maher an organizational consultant in Systems Theory this examination will be informed by other theories on metaphysical thought. He has suggested an examination of Carl Jung, DeePak Chopra and Neale Walsch as they relate to explaining apparent coincidence as not coincidence at all.

At the suggestion of Dr. Robert Spitzer, Professor of Philosophy at Seattle University, the relevance of this project will be framed around two possible areas of exploration.

First is the possibility of beginning to understand the connection between Eastern and Western thinking in light of the increased interaction the two will have as we enter the 21st century.

Second will be to see where and if the influence of Eastern thinking can provide benefit to Western thought processes, and where and if Western thinking can provide benefit to Eastern thought processes.

Both these areas of inquiry will be explored as they relate to the GMP 98 cohort in the specific instance of this project and an attempt will be made to extrapolate conclusions for general use and benefit to a Western business model.

To attempt to get at these questions the project as described above will be conducted after providing in this introductory material a rational of the I Ching method and comparing it to approximate models suggested in traditional Western literature in physics and psychology.

The I Ching method will be explored as an intuitive method in the two areas it purports to provide enlightenment: Prediction and meaning of events.

The Western models which will be described as close approximations of thought which approach the same conclusions as the I Ching are: quantum physics, the collective unconscious of cognitive psychology and synchronicity.

In describing the I Ching and each of the approximate models we will seek to translate connections between each of the Western models and the I Ching. In this way we will suggest a validation of the method of the I Ching oracle within a context of Western thought and rationality.

The difficulty in this approach is that the whole notion of Eastern thought is one of indeterminate, nearly irrational acceptance of events as connected one to another without cause or effect. This flies directly into the face of accepted notions of determinate, cause and effect relationships predicted by traditional Western scientific methods.

Perhaps, in the final analysis, what we will discover is that both are correct. The I Ching after all supposes that everything is connected, true and a part of the whole. In this light the existence of Western determinism is also a part of that whole. That Western determinism appears to contradict the indeterminism of the I Ching method must be considered as an event to be understood in the whole system that contains the two opposing thoughts.

In other words what may be true is that Eastern thought is Western thought and Western thought is Eastern thought. The distinctions being only the vocabulary used to describe the same phenomenon.

The I Ching Oracle (Quoted from The I Ching Page http://www1.power-press.com/wuwei/ with permission of wu wei)

"If you knew which of your actions would bring you good fortune and which misfortune, which actions would lead to your success and which to failure, would that knowledge not be better than gold and diamonds? Would it not allow you to achieve any goal? Have anything you desired? If you could transcend the barriers of time to look into the future, into the past, if you could see the road that led to happiness, the road to despair, would you not consider yourself fortunate indeed?"

"When you become adept in the use of the I Ching, you will be able to do those things and more. Open your mind to the words on the following pages; allow yourself the freedom to believe that all of the above is possible."

"We are part of the universe-as much a part as are the galaxies that whirl through space and, here on our little planet, as much a part as are the trees, the mountains, and the sky. We are no less a part of the universe than anything else is or was or ever can be. We are an integral part, made of the same stuff as the rest of the universe: universal matter."

"Everything that happens, happens within time. We like to think that time stretches illimitably forward into the future and illimitably back into the past while we exist on a hairline of time that separates the future from the past, the hairline we call, "now." Quite the reverse is true; all there is and was and ever can be is an endless now, within which change occurs. Within that endless now, we are eternal, as is everything else, all of us and everything simply going through endless change."

"Because we are a part of the universe and because time is a living, breathing entity that contains consciousness - may indeed be the consciousness of the universe, permeating everything, including ourselves - we can know everything that the universe knows; all we need is a key to unlock the fount of sublime wisdom and complete information. That there is a key is unquestionable; every time a new idea seems to arise spontaneously, we have used the key. Egotistically, we like to think that we created the idea, but actually what we did was no less noteworthy: we channeled the idea from the source; we used the key."

"That the key exists within each of us is the premise of all divination. Divination surmises that there is a part of us that is at one with everything, including time, and therefore knows what everything knows. The English root word of divination is divine. The Latin root word is divinus, meaning a deity, and also, to foretell."

"For us to be able to draw from the fount of universal wisdom, we must have a means to do so. Some people draw from the fount with prayer; some by talking with psychics or astrologers; others by manipulating objects such as coins, tarot cards, ruins, yarrow stalks, or any of a number of related objects; still others by meditating or interpreting dreams."

"All of the systems work perfectly, up to the limits of the systems and the capability of the questioner. If, for instance, you ask a question and flip a coin to get an answer, you are limited to a yes or no answer. If you ask a question and select from a deck a card with several sentences of guidance printed on it, you can obtain counsel beyond yes or no. The more sophisticated the system, the more sophisticated the answer."

"If you and I decided to formulate a system to obtain answers to questions, we would put into that system as many answers as there are questions. One answer can be sufficient for many questions. For instance, all questions regarding the taking of action can be answered generally with counsel to take action, take no action, or delay taking action. Once the answers have been formulated, all that remains is to devise a method for determining which answer applies to which question."

"We would necessarily have to build into the system a means of preventing ourselves from intellectually tampering with the results, a means of allowing only the spiritual portion of ourselves to participate - that portion that is at one with everything else."

"In shaking coins in cupped hands and throwing them, in selecting a card from a deck whose faces cannot be seen, in choosing a stone from a pile of inscribed stones whose faces cannot be seen, or in following similar practices, the questioner exceeds his intellectual ability to determine the outcome because he cannot know how the coins will land, or which card was chosen until its face is seen, or which stone was chosen from the pile until the inscription on its face can be read. All such methods of choosing rely completely on the intuitive ability of the questioner, on his ability to draw upon his inner spiritual source that knows everything."

"When all of our answers have been furnished and our method of selecting answers has been determined, we can proceed confidently to ask questions because there is that within each of us that knows all the answers we have written and that will guide us in choosing the correct answer to any question we ask. Fortunately, we do not have to create a system of answers. The I Ching masterfully fills that need."

"Fu Hsi (pronounced foo shee), the great Chinese sage to whom the I Ching system is attributed, constructed his answers in the form of sixty-four figures, the six linear lines stacked one above the other, either undivided, or divided, called kua.

----- ----- ------------ Undivided line and divided line.

The top three lines and the bottom three lines of each of the kua are called trigrams.

----- -----

------------

------------ A kua is comprised of two trigrams."

"The two trigrams above that form the kua are called primary trigrams.

----- -----

------------

------------ The complete kua is comprised of the six lines together.

Following the law of eternal change, the lines are always in motion, always moving upward. As a new line enters from the bottom, it pushes the five lines above it upward, thereby displacing the line at the top. The movement is always in time to the rhythm of the universal heartbeat, always mirroring the universe itself. Taken together, the kua and their lines represent every conceivable condition in heaven and on earth with all their states of change."

"Each of the sixty-four kua can change into one another through the movement of one or more of the six lines that form the kua. There are 4,096 possible combinations (64 x 64), which represent every possible condition in heaven and on earth."

"The hexagrams and trigrams are both called "kua" (pronounced "gwa," with the "a" sounded as in father), which means symbol. To avoid confusion, but to retain the flavor of the ancient text as much as possible, the six line figures will be referred to as "kua" and the three line figures as "trigrams.""

"Each of the sixty-four kua, with their combined total of 384 lines, represents a situation or condition. Each situation or condition contains the six stages of its own evolution:

about to come into being
beginning
expanding
approaching maximum potential
peaking
passing its peak and turning toward its opposite condition."

"The kua not only represent every conceivable situation and condition possible, but also include all their states of change. Fu Hsi's method for selecting the appropriate kua is unique: the manipulation of fifty yarrow stalks, one being laid aside as an observer stalk, the rest being divided and re-divided eighteen times."

"Does the system work? Yes. Does it work perfectly? Yes. Every time? Yes. Will it work perfectly for you? Yes, if you seek the truth with reverence and sincerity. Why? You are a divine being who is an integral part of an eternal universe, which is an inexhaustible wellspring of the divine, actually is the divine, from which you may freely draw. Can you draw from it correct answers to hurt another? No. Can you draw from it correct answers to gain an unfair advantage? No. Can you draw from it correct answers if you will misuse the information? No. All guidance given in the I Ching is virtuous, beneficial, and given with the intent of guiding you along the highest possible path for your greatest possible good. You will not be assisted by your higher self to commit acts harmful to yourself or another."

"Will frivolous questions be answered? Yes, frivolously. Will questions that imply doubt in the source of the answers be answered? Yes, but only in a way that will confirm the doubt in your mind; you cannot run a test on your divinity."

"How can you be certain the answers are correct? After you have received an answer to a vitally important question and feel everything within you resonating with the truth, wisdom, and guidance contained in the answer a resonance so pure and sweet that it brings joy to your heart, and sometimes tears to your eyes you will, at that moment, be certain that the question was perfectly answered, divinely answered. At those moments you can experience your oneness with All That Is. Having had the experience, you will never again wonder who it is or what it is answering your questions or whether the answers are correct."

"In the I Ching you can read that teaching is a holy task, to be withheld from no one. You can derive from that statement that the answers provided in the I Ching are given in the form of guidance, of teaching, which will not be withheld from you. Not only will you be provided with answers to questions, but you will also be given counsel concerning the way to proceed to obtain a particular result. Additionally, under certain conditions, you will be told what condition will replace the current condition. For the divine within you, which is you, time is not a barrier nor is distance."

"Fu Hsi discovered the laws of the universe and set them forth so that we could be guided, so that we could be free, so that we would no longer be subject to the tyranny of events, and so that each of us could be in charge of his own fate. He created the sixty-four kua so that we could know the operation of the universe and so that within the universe each of us could find his place. He spoke in terms of "good fortune" and "misfortune":"

"Good fortune brings you good friends, security, food, clothing, good health, shelter, opportunity, wealth, a good mate, and windfall good luck. Misfortune takes any or all of those same things away from you."

"Fu Hsi spoke of the paths of life, calling the path that leads to good fortune "the way of the superior person" and the path that leads to misfortune "the way of the inferior person." He spoke in terms of "good" and "evil." In modern times we rarely hear these terms used, but for this present work they have been preserved because they impart a sense of who Fu Hsi was, and they retain the flavor of the ancient texts."

"We live in a perfect universe in which only perfect events can unfold; the universe will not tolerate anything else; if it could or would, it would be in danger of allowing its own destruction."

"One of the great truths that can be gained from a study of the I Ching is that the universe is slightly inclined in our favor; there is more of the good force than the bad that is why and how the universe persists and that is why you can always triumph over any evil force if you are good enough. The way to do that is not to combat evil directly thereby becoming an instrument of evil yourself, but to make energetic progress in the good: following Fu Hsi's path of the superior person."

Implication of the I Ching Oracle

In the previous section the author Wu Wei describes the oracle from its purest form, without doubt as to its ability to predict future events and provide meaningful interpretation of the events of everyday life.

In the very first paragraph he describes the fascination that has led to my pursuit of the I Ching as I have wondered about it for a long time. It is almost as if I have been preparing to do this for nearly the past twenty years.

I began to experiment with the I Ching when I was introduced to it by a friend of mine as we were studying Tai ji together. I’ve always been fascinated at the notion of fortune telling devices, be they astrological, numerological or other. This one was so easy to learn, and even in the beginning provided seemly relevant advice, that I began to occasionally dabble in it.

After several years of dabbling I began to record the oracles I received, attempting to see if patterns emerged or if in going back to re-read them I could find more relevance. Very little came of this effort, though I did begin to become comfortable with the I Ching and many of its structures.

In May of 1994 I began to keep a journal. As a part of that effort, very often after I had recorded thoughts I would caste an oracle. I began to find striking similarities with what I perceived to be going on in the world around me and what the oracle reading described. This is not to say that I always found what I was looking for either. I often received an oracle that appears to be 180^O off of what I thought was going on. It took reflection to see a meaning and it was often a meaning I would not have seen otherwise. So as a reflective (intuitive?) tool I found tremendous value in this method.

And yet, I still didn’t want to give the tool value. It felt too weird, strange, unreal. I didn’t want to give credibility to this voodoo magic. I certainly didn’t share with people the extent to which I had employed the tool. I had grave reservations as to how I would be perceived if people knew of this long-term experiment.

Yet I persisted in the experiment. Continuing to search for the connections back and into the future that may be present in this method.

The implications of the I Ching oracle are profound. If true the oracle has the power to allow one to transcend time and space. To see the future. To understand the motivation and intent of all actions in the here and now. Properly used and understood it could be one of the greatest strategic advantages one could hold in the business world.

But how does one prove or disprove the notion of intuitive prediction and meaning? The author Wu Wei implies one must take on faith the power of the oracle. Faith is not something that comes easily to the analytical business and scientific methods employed in Western society.

In the following sections we will attempt to show that the intuitive notion of prediction and meaning are present in many accepted Western scientific methods as we explore the realms of quantum physics and psychology. We will see they in fact require us to accept intuition as being as factually relevant as objective and empirical observation.

By doing this we hope to lay the groundwork for acceptance of the intuitive method of the I Ching oracle in light of traditional science that requires the same intuition to be understood. We will then engage in our project as described in Chapter 3 with an understanding of why this intuitive method may be seen as a legitimate line of inquiry and any conclusions drawn accepted as applicable in Western society.

The Collective Unconscious

Chapter 2 The I Ching Oracle and Western Thought
Western Models Approximating the Conclusions of the I Ching

We now turn to a survey of Western thought in quantum physics and psychology. In these two areas we will discover that many of the same realities suggested by the I Ching oracle have been described and understood by Western science. The references used from Ed Maher and Carl Jung in fact give credit and acceptance of the I Ching as a legitimate tool.

Quantum Physics

The first area of Western thought we will explore is the area of quantum physics. This is an appropriate starting point because at their core both the science of physics and the I Ching attempt to explain the same thing: the nature of how things are.

Physics is the "hardest" of the modern sciences, combining mathematics and rational thought to project and test hypothesis of how things work. At the essence of inquiry is the question of what rules govern the universe.

The father of modern physics Sir Isaac Newton described these rules in terms of a cause and effect relationship, much like the workings of a machine. He imagines a smooth flow of events with one action following that of another. From this basis of thought the modern Western world developed.

With a model of universe as machine it was easy to imagine that by breaking things down to cause and effect at smaller and smaller levels of matter that one would ultimately understand and discover the ultimate cause which had created the universe and thus have found the answer to the rules governing the working of the universe. It was assumed, naturally that this would be a rational, linear cause and effect model which played out down to the smallest units of matter

But something happened. As physicists were able to observe ever smaller units of matter they discovered strange irrational occurrences which could not be explained by cause and effect or universe as machine. Because of the nature of the physicist’s inquiry as these anomalies occurred they needed a new theory to explain and test against.

Enter now the world of quantum physics. The study of physical matter at its smallest most elemental unit. At this level of the universe one could almost imagine that nothing exists at all except space as we see the atom - the basic building block of nature - with its proton/neutron core separated from orbiting electrons which exist as tendencies in time and who’s orbits are so distant as to leave the atom composed mostly of space with nothing of substance at all. In the movie Mindwalk it is described as if the proton/neutron core were a grain of sand with its nearest electron orbiting several hundred yards in the distance, the space in between being filled with nothing.

At this level of the universe we enter the world of paradox under three main headings.

The first paradox is that things move without following the laws of mechanical motion proposed by Newton. As quantum physicists viewed the atom they saw things move in disjointed or discontinuous manners. They "jumped" from one place to another, without regard for going between any space in between.

The second paradox involves scientists’ rational, reasonable belief that things can be observed objectively as one thing or another. This view is founded on the notion that whatever one observes as being out there really is out there. The idea that one cannot trust an objective measure would be abhorrent to any rational person, especially a scientist.

Yet at the quantum level it just isn’t so. What one observes is actually a creation of what the observer wants to see. The outcome of the observance not only depends on what you set out to see, it also depends on your frame of mind. Walk into the observation feeling angry and unconfident and the observation will leave you angry and unconfident. Walk into the observation feeling happy and confident and the observation will turn out happy and confident.

The latter part of this quantum world is difficult to fathom. The former is easily verified by the well know double slit experiment in physics. In this experiment a stream of single photons of light are directed toward a photon screen detector. When the experiment is set up with one slit the light photons appear as particles. When the experiment is set up with two slits the same photons appear as waves. Which are they? What is the nature of light? Wave or particle. In fact it is both, together and yet it cannot be measured or observed together. It depends on which state, we the observer, wish to see.

The third paradox has to do with this state of disorder itself. While it would seem that discontinuous indeterminate motion and things that are what the observer wants them to be would lead to an irrational universe of disorder and chaos. In fact, what actually appears is a well ordered universe. It just isn’t the order we expect. Instead it is an order that must also take into account the human mind and consider the effect the observer has on an outcome.

At this point don’t we begin to approach the world of the I Ching oracle? That is the conclusion arrived at by Mr. Maher as he examined this subject.

We can think of the I Ching oracle as an extension of our mind. As existing with the universe and helping to create the reality we desire. With a question in mind for prediction or meaning the act of manipulation and inquiry as described by the author Wu Wei becomes little more than a quantum experiment played out at the physical level of touchable matter.

When Wu Wei states:

Does the system work? Yes. Does it work perfectly? Yes. Every time? Yes. Will it work perfectly for you? Yes, if you seek the truth with reverence and sincerity. Why? You are a divine being who is an integral part of an eternal universe, which is an inexhaustible wellspring of the divine, actually is the divine, from which you may freely draw

Is he not simply saying the same thing as the quantum physicist? That we are a part of the experiment of life. That outcomes are determined by our frame of mind and the beliefs we bring to the table?

Synchronicity

Turning now to the area of psychology we will examine two notions put forward by Carl Jung of synchronicity and the collective unconscious, beginning first with synchronicity. The two ideas are actually outgrowths one of the other with Jung’s work on the collective unconscious first appearing in 1934 and the work on synchronicity following in 1952.

Jung’s description of synchronicity as an acausal connecting principle comes from the definition he gives to the concept. Jung defines synchronicity as the meaningful connection of two events which happen in a time relationship to each other and which have no appearance of a cause and effect relationship:

Synchronicity therefore means the simultaneous occurrence of a certain psychic state with one or more external events which appear as meaningful parallels to the momentary subjective state - and in certain cases, vice versa.

One can also think of this as omens or signs. Where we conclude some event - good or bad - will occur as the result of the appearance of some object; e.g., the premonition of death associated with the appearance of a flock of birds at your door.

A detailed example of these types of events which began Jung’s early inquiry and subsequent acceptance of synchronicity as valid is described in passages describing his work in the mid-20’s while he was investigating the phenomena of the collective unconscious:

The problem of synchronicity has puzzled me…What I found were "coincidences" which were connected so meaningfully that their "chance" occurrence would represent a degree of improbability that would have to be expressed by an astronomical figure. By way of example, I shall mention an incident from my own observation. A young woman I was treating had, at a critical moment, a dream in which she was given a golden scarab. While she was telling me this dream I sat with my back to a closed window. Suddenly I heard a noise behind me, like a gentle tapping. I turned around and saw a flying insect knocking against the window pane from outside. I opened the window and caught the creature in the air as it flew in. It was the nearest analogy to a golden scarab that one finds in our latitudes, a scarabaeid beetle, the common rose-chafer which contrary to its usual habits had evidently felt an urge to get into a dark room at this particular moment. I must admit that nothing like it ever happened to me before or since, and that the dream of the patient has remained unique in my experience.

I should like to mention another case that is typical of a certain category of events (Ed. note: i.e. omens). The wife of one of my patients, a man in his fifties, once told me in conversation that, at the deaths of her mother and her grandmother, a number of birds gathered outside the windows of the death-chamber. I had heard similar stories from other people. When her husband’s treatment was nearing its end, his neurosis having been cleared up, he developed some apparently innocuous symptoms which seemed to me, however, to be those of heart-disease. I sent him along to a specialist, who after examining him told me in writing that he could find no cause for anxiety. On the way back from the consultation (with the medical report in his pocket) my patient collapsed in the street. As he was brought home dying, his wife was already in a great state of anxiety because, soon after her husband had gone to the doctor, a whole flock of birds alighted on her house. She naturally remembered the similar incidents that had happened at the death of her own relatives, and feared the worst.

With his descriptions of these phenomena Jung goes on to continue his inquiry on the phenomena of acausal relationships. He conducts an experiment in astrology which demonstrates a scientific statistical basis for the acausal connection of birth with the coincident position of astronomical bodies. And in his conclusions actually comes to the I Ching oracle as forerunner of synchronicity.

So again we find ourselves describing a phenomena similar in nature to the I Ching oracle. If we think of the stars and other astronomical bodies as the yarrow stalk, and the I Ching as the astrologer/interpreter, is this not the same thing? If we consider that what the I Ching is suggesting is that the manipulation of the yarrow stalks is connected with and can explain what is happening in the rest of the universe by virtue of the oneness of the universe with everything in the universe, is this not the same as the scarab connection, in the event that was a driving force in bringing Jung to his conclusions on synchronicity?

Jung falls short of suggesting his investigation of synchronicity as a final proof of his views. He simply states:

…a conclusion from empirical premises which I would like to submit to the consideration of my readers.

It seems clear however that he may have personally believed he had discovered something beyond science and that it seemed to have been found far earlier in the body of work the I Ching.

We now turn to the last of our formal areas of inquiry as we search for approximate models of Western science that approach the intuitive method of the I Ching oracle. We will examine the concept of the collective unconscious as proposed by Carl Jung as he describes a concept of deep thought patterns that seem to be resident with all human beings.

In Jung’s paper on the collective unconscious he defines the term as follows:

The collective unconscious is a part of the psyche which can be negatively distinguished from a personal unconscious by the fact it does not, like the latter, owe its existence to personal experience and consequently is not a personal acquisition…the contents of the collective unconscious have never been in consciousness and therefore have never been individually acquired, but owe their existence exclusively to heredity…the content of the collective unconscious is made up essentially of archetypes.

The term archetype introduced here refers to the existence of definite forms in the unconscious which seem to be present always and forever. The phenomena of archetypes is present in ancient motifs or mythologies and often can be discovered by examining common elements reported in dreams.

Going on with his thesis Jung states:

In addition to our immediate consciousness…there exists a second psychic system of a collective, universal and impersonal nature which is identical in all individuals.

In laying out his definition and thesis Jung then goes on to ask whether there are in fact such unconscious, universal forms which can be discovered and seen across all individuals. Through a formal process of discovery and proof he answers the question in the affirmative.

One archetype, by way of example, is that of the motif of dual descent; i.e., descent from human and divine parents. He harkens to Greek mythology and Heracles who received immortality through being unwittingly adopted by Hera. He describes the ritual of the Pharaohs of Egypt who were thought of as both human and divine by nature. The nature of baptism as "second-birth" in Christian religions is also compared to this concept.

Jung goes on to say that the idea of a second birth is found at all times and in all places. That it has been a foundation of early medicine, a central idea in many religions mystical experience, a key idea in medieval occultism and finally, occurs in countless children who hold to a belief that their parents are not their real parents, but merely foster-parents who have adopted them.

This area of scientific inquiry - the collective unconscious - may be the most tenuous link to the method of the I Ching of the three we have discussed as it doesn’t explicitly contain the notion of prediction. Also, while we can derive an idea of meaning as related to the interpretation of common motifs that cross cultural and time boundaries, it is not an interpretation that lends itself to understanding the meaning to an individual of current events in their life as with the I Ching.

Perhaps the most relevant idea this area of inquiry opens up is the concept that somehow all individuals are linked with a common and universal truth about how things work. And that these universals present themselves at all times, to all people in common themes or archetypes that can be studied and understood as the basis for understanding people and the human condition.

This too is an I Ching concept; i.e., the universal search for truth and the meaning of the human condition. And while not an explicit intent in setting forth the project we will later describe it would seem if we discover some intuitive form of prediction and meaning ability in the I Ching, we would also discover some understanding of the human condition.

Further, the concept of every individual being connected with a common unconscious experience could be added evidence of the validity of the I Ching method. After all, one of the basic tenets of the I Ching oracle manipulation is that the manipulation is guided by the same forces that are acting on the universe at the time of the manipulation. And therefore conclusions can be drawn from the I Ching oracle as to what is happening for the individual if a key is provided to unlock the meaning and connections of the oracle to the individual.

If the motifs captured and preserved in the I Ching somehow tap the common unconscious experience of the human condition then perhaps from that foundation could come the intuitive power to understand what is happening on the individual level based on the I Ching manipulation. The concept of the collective unconscious thereby puts forth the supposition that we are all the same and are therefore actually having the same experience simply shaded by a conscious experience that the I Ching allows us to unveil down to the common experience we share at the level of the collective unconscious.

Some Other Related Models

As with any research project once begun the outcome is unpredictable. Having put in our head to discover how quantum physics and psychology could approximate the I Ching method, other models will appear as if by magic. Interestingly, this too could be another concept to explore as an approximation of the I Ching oracle; i.e., the "magic" that occurs when we put an idea in our head and then "magically" answers appear to provide additional clarification.

In the Boeing seminar on people effectiveness this is described as magis thinking. The example being Archemedes who discovered how to weigh the king’s crown while relaxing in a bath with the question (and the weight of his death if he failed) on his mind. In psychology the same concept is selective perception and describes how the mind will find, see and connect to information that would otherwise be invisible except for the question or idea being present in the individual’s consciousness.

Of course, the I Ching would simply call this the connection of all to all. Any idea is connected to all ideas, so how could one fail to see answers? The questions themselves are the answers…waiting discovery.

In any case, several other models appeared during the research phase of this project which I will now touch on in passing.

In the work of Dr. Edward de Bono on creativity two very powerful tools are described that are almost I Ching in nature: Random entry and Provocation

Random entry is a creativity technique for coming up with new ideas for solving complex problems. The first step is to obtain a source of random words; a dictionary, magazine, book, the important things being it must be distant and apart from the problem at hand. A random word is then selected - nouns work best - and then you see what ideas the word generates against the problem stated. One will then find revealed a set of solutions that are better than any which before existed. As De Bono states: "It always works!" Why he goes on to explain, is that every idea, from a creative sense, is connected to every other idea. That, for me sounds an awful lot like the I Ching notion of connectedness. The randomness of the I Ching oracle manipulation compares quite favorably to the randomness of selecting a random word unrelated to a problem and always coming up with a good answer, a better answer in fact, than you could have otherwise.

Provocation as a creativity technique is characterized by the word po or provocative operation. In this technique one imagines an absurd or negative characterization of the problem at hand; e.g., square wheels on a car. Traditional inquiry would suggest these types of imagination should be rejected. Provocation says to accept the idea and see where it takes you. The square tire idea as an example led to the development of "smart" suspensions which smooth a car’s ride by adjusting to the bumps in the road by moving the car up and down to compensate for the road irregularities. The important thing about provocations are they create movement from the absurd idea to someplace else instead of a stop which occurs through rejection. Again, we find a corollary concept in the I Ching. Literally translated I Ching is Change Book or Book of Changes. The whole idea of the I Ching oracles is that they are constantly changing and moving to the next form.

Another idea that presented itself in approximation to the I Ching was the area of Systems Theory. Systems theory starts from the premise that everything operates as a system. A system is defined as a combination of individual parts which operate together and on each other, any one of which when alone, loses its properties if disassociated from the system. The example of the human body and its parts is provided. A hand can only be understood as a hand when it is connected to the body. Separate the hand from the body and the function of the hand can no longer be understood. The implications of systems theory is that to understand any system one must study the whole system at once and not its parts individually. This compares favorably to the I Ching premise of wholeness. When we receive an oracle it is a part of the system of life in the universe. It has naturally been acted on by this system. Therefore conclusions about an individual inquiry can be drawn by virtue of the question and the oracle being a part of the same system with the same forces acting upon both.

The final idea which presented itself, while not exactly Western in nature, comes from a Western trained medical doctor, DeePak Chopra. Dr. Chopra received his medical training in India. His father was a commissioned medical doctor in the British army and devoted his life to the study of modern medicine. He instilled in his son the scientific method in direct contradiction to the prevailing mystic beliefs of the Indian culture. After coming to America, Dr. Chopra - remembering back to boyhood memories of saints, gurus and Rishi - rediscovers the healing power of Ayurvedic healing. Ayurvedic healing relies on the power of the mind to create health. It asks patients to take control of their own health, to monitor how their body feels and to choose to feel good. As long as patients can report they are living a comfortable and peaceful existence, even during the process of dying, the intervention of medicines are resisted as the natural healing power of the mind is invoked. The parallel here to the I Ching is from the connection of the mind in creating reality, of being a part of knowing what the future will bring. When the Ayurvedic healer asks patients to choose health what is really happening is patients are creating a future based on a belief in their own ability to create a healthy body. The same is suggested by the author Wu Wei when he says: "we can proceed confidently to ask questions because there is that within each of us that knows all the answers we have written and that will guide us in choosing the correct answer to any question we ask."

Connections Between the Western Models and the I Ching

In this chapter we have attempted to provide connections from traditional Western scientific sources that could be seen as approximations of the intuitive method of the I Ching oracle and which lend credibility to the idea of using the I Ching oracle as a legitimate tool in the Western business model.

As we have seen there are close approximations especially in the area of quantum physics that actually require an intuitive approach to understand. In the area of psychology the concept of synchronicity shows remarkable parallels to this intuitive approach and even helped Jung draw conclusions as to the I Ching’s validity.

Finally, even in this limited inquiry into the realm of physics and psychology, the I Ching concept of connectedness, the Greek concept of magis thinking and the psychological concept of selective perception all converged to bring even more ideas in the area of creativity, systems theory and the East/West blend of Ayurvedic healing which also shed light on the connection of the Western model with the I Ching.

Chapter 3 The Study Period
Overview

Up to this point we have been examining and learning about the I Ching oracle and related Western models that approximate it. We have heard the author Wu Wei suggest that the I Ching is the key to understanding the future and understanding the hidden meaning of current events. We’ve seen parallels in physics, psychology and other accepted Western models that explain how things work in the world. It is now time to lay out the project to be engaged in. This project will form the major portion of our work in an attempt to discover the intuitive value of the I Ching oracle.

Our project involves the interaction of the I Ching oracle with the 1998 cohort of the Antioch Graduate Management Program (GMP 98). The GMP 98 is a group of nineteen mid-career business professionals plus faculty joined in a program of study leading to a Master of Science degree in management. I am a member of this cohort as a student when we come together once a month for three days of study in management and leadership during a weekend module. With the exception of the September module, which is structured as an off-site retreat, we are together from Friday through Sunday during the day with occasional evening work on Fridays or Saturdays. The September retreat is conducted at the Seabeck Conference Center and runs from Thursday evening through late Sunday afternoon.

What our project proposes is to use the yarrow stalk oracle described in Appendix A to ask the same question about the GMP 98 cohort before and after each weekend module that the group comes together for the three months from September of 1997 through November of 1997. Before the module a question of prediction will be asked. After the module a question of meaning will be asked. The I Ching oracles will be recorded similarly as in the preface to this paper.

The same question will be used for each pre-module oracle and for each post-module oracle to reduce as much as possible the bias the author could insert by having discretion to formulate different questions based on known events that will arise during the project. Further, the questions to be used will be formulated and recorded in this Chapter of our paper to assure control of the questions prior to beginning the project.

The pre-module oracle will be used to formulate intuitive predictions which will be observed for during the weekend module. These predictions will be as specific as possible and based on our interpretation of what the oracle is suggesting. The predictions will be recorded in this paper before each weekend module. After the module we will examine each prediction and see if and how many were accurate based on the weekend experience.

The post-module oracle will be used to seek additional meaning of the events of the weekend module. Again, the meaning will be drawn from our interpretation of what the oracle seems to suggest. These meanings will be recorded and examined over the course of the three month project to see if the patterns they suggest are played out in the observable behavior of the GMP 98 cohort.

Finally, after each weekend set of oracles, we will record monthly conclusions of the patterns or meanings that seem to be arising as applicable both to the GMP 98 cohort and to insertion into a Western business model.

At the end of the three month project we will consolidate our findings into conclusions about the GMP 98 cohort and examine the possibility of using the I Ching oracle as a tool in Western business.

The Questions

The pre-module question to be asked:

What can I expect to see happening in our coming weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

In order to provide context this question will also be informed by a short summary of events leading up to the question. For example, prior to asking this question for the Seabeck Retreat in September a summary of the summer cohort activity will be provided.

The post-module question to be asked:

What were the meanings in the events of our just past weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

In order to provide context this question will also be informed by a short summary of significant events that occurred during the weekend module.

History of the Cohort

In order to set the stage for the I Ching oracles that will follow in coming chapters we will now embark on a brief history and analysis of the GMP 98 experience from September 1996 through Summer 1997. Bear in mind, this is one story. There are as many other stories as there are people listed in the cohort and faculty sketches that follow later!

The GMP 98 began its time together with a week long retreat at the Seabeck Conference Center from September 8, 1996 to September 13, 1996 ( Friday the 13th?). This was generally perceived as an idyllic week of socializing and coming together to know each other in search of the GMP program objective: "a learning community". We wanted desperately to see each other as happy, content, and so good at working together as a team.

And so it seemed as we left this happy island of isolation. The surface apparentness was soon to disappear. It was an illusion from the beginning.

Part of the GMP experience is an online electronic conference which the cohort uses to conduct business and stay in touch between weekend modules. Almost from the beginning and certainly after we came back for our first weekend together in October of 1997, we began to surface many unexamined difficulties which were present even at Seabeck. The analogy of our group as being on a first date at Seabeck; i.e., on good behavior and overlooking bad behavior began to surface. We came to see we would be together for a long time and started to work at changing the behaviors of others that were being objectionable to us. We are still at that work, though the intensity is lessening and we’re beginning to understand how to accept differences without insisting on total change. This idea does, however, seem to underlie many of the major themes that have emerged during our time together.

There are three dominant themes that have emerged in our time as a cohort which I will now outline:

The question of acceptable rules of conduct of GMP 98 participants.
The question of leadership and authority.
A debate over content vs. process in our GMP experience.

The question of acceptable rules of conduct, or norms, was one of the first that appeared in the cohort. It first came into play at Seabeck on our second day together. At the time it was dismissed as an item that could wait until we got to know each other a little better. We were advised by our faculty team that there would be ample time later to work on this question. But, not only have we not found the time to work on this question, it has now become so explosive we can not even say the word "norms" without a specter of doom and angst entering the group.

The question of norms has now become wrapped up in an idea that if we agree to some rules it will somehow diminish us as individuals and limit our right of free expression. What happens though is that the lack of agreed on norms has led to pretty outrageous behavior in an attempt to show that norms are needed and to show that there are unspoken rules that are already in force. When this happens the violator falls back on a defense of "there’s no stated norms so how could I know?"

Perhaps the most ironic situation of all is we have lots of unstated and less than constructive norms. The dominant one being: "Do your own thing and don’t agree to anything in common." During one of our modules, this particular norm led to a comic/tragic debate as to whether we could agree to a shared learning vision for our cohort. After nearly three hours of gut wrenching dialogue we agreed to table the discussion until a later date (like we did with norms). The subject has yet to come up again, over five months later. When we approach it, it’s almost humorous to watch as the group engages in creative dialogue to deflect the conversation to a more comfortable topic. Consider, this in a group of people who originally came together with a stated common objective: "Create a learning community."

It appears until we deal with how we will commit to treat each other, this discomfort with subjects that require compromise of our personal goals will continue. Without a commitment to agreed norms that are checked for compliance and relevance, the atmosphere of trust needed to work through these types of subjects will not exist to allow the dialogues to achieve meaningful results. At this point the possibility we will ever get to an explicit statement of agreed on and shared norms seems remote. We have become comfortable with our unstated norms, some less than constructive, and the occasional outbursts that result will become a part of our accepted routine. There is hope of another outcome, however, as described below.

The theme of leadership and authority became prevalent beginning about November or December. We had begun to be very uncomfortable with the way we interacted (as a result of not creating norms?), and began to insist that some rules be established. The problem though, is that from the beginning of our studies, the faculty has explicitly stated that the rules are up to us, that the authority in the group is ours to lead and create our own environment. As noted above, to approach the subject of rules as a group would have led to the subject of norms. At the early stage of our group development, we had no capacity to authorize anyone to take on this task.

Lately though, the leadership and authority questions have begun to find slow resolution. As the group members have become more comfortable (maybe just tired of fighting?) with each other, the level of acceptance of personal differences has increased. This is resulting in people being able to take on leadership and authority in a less than perfect fashion. The cohort has begun to allow this. There is still a ways to go in this area, but unlike norms, it appears to be an area that may find resolution. Perhaps if this issue resolves itself early in our second year, the authority we grant ourselves will allow us to deal directly with the question of the less than constructive norms we now allow to disrupt our group cohesion.

The last theme, the debate over process vs. content, began to present itself after we had completed our module in Economics in November 1996 and became a roaring fire after the completion of our Finance module in January 1997. There was a momentary lull in this fire during the Marketing modules of February and March 1997, primarily due to the instruction coming from an experienced Antioch professor, Jill Bamburg, who understood the dynamics that play out in GMP cohorts.

Unfortunately, after experiencing a relative abundance of "good" content during the Marketing module, when confronted with the rambling, no agenda style of our Operations instructor for April and May 1997, the cohort turned brutal. The demands for some understanding of the content we were to be learning resulted in the cohort taking control of the agenda on the final day of instruction and insisting that the teaching follow some structure that led to a learning objective.

This, of course, was a key turning point in the development of the group leadership and authority capacity that was mentioned earlier. This capacity has increased to a promising point, with evidence coming prior to the June 1997 module ( our last of the first year). Before the module we developed a process for working with instructors prior to weekend modules with the goal of helping our instructors better fit teaching content to our individual learning desires.

But what was the debate about process vs. content all about? This debate represents a split in the desires of the group for what and where we want to devote our learning energy.

Most of the cohort came to the program believing they would receive some level of in-depth instruction in a traditional business curriculum. It became apparent very early on that what we would receive instead was a combination of general business concepts and overviews, and an in-depth analysis of the human group dynamics of leadership and authority that surround the business environment. This was the design of the program and as such the depth of study in the technical subjects of economics, finance, etc. was lacking for a large group of people. Complaints became loud and incessant that more depth and detail be provided.

For another group of people, however, something else happened. When it became apparent that the business content was less developed than the leadership and authority portion of the program (the process piece), they began to desire more time be devoted to the area of leadership and authority. The design of the program however gave over only one of the three days we were together to this area so this group began to clamor for more time to be devoted to this subject.

Naturally, the content group, already feeling unfulfilled, did not want to give up content time for process time, even though the content was less than desirable. And the process group seeing the content to be less than desirable began to insert process dialogue into the content sessions. The outcome is the raging debate we now find ourselves in as to what the proper mix is in the program for process vs. content.

This debate too, seems to be resolvable. We are beginning to understand our role in the learning environment of GMP 98. The move to develop a group authority and leadership is allowing this debate to slowly shape the overall program toward a mix of process and content that includes one in the other. That is to say, we are learning how to see the content portions of our learning as an opportunity to also explore process. And we are seeing the process portion of our learning as an opportunity to explore content.

This brings us up to date with where we now find ourselves during the Summer of 1997 as a GMP 98 cohort. The coming second year of study holds good promise in two of the three areas (the question of authority and the mix of content to process) that dominated our first year. And even in the third area (the question of norms) there is a glimmer of hope. Of course, with the new year may come new challenges and themes, all of which we will now begin seeing with the aid of our new guide...the I Ching oracle.

Cohort and Faculty Sketches

A brief sketch of the members of the GMP 98 cohort and faculty will now be provided in order to set the stage for discussion of events involving the people of GMP 98 during this project. Student names have been changed to protect anonymity.

Aileen, student, is employed at a local biotech firm. She is responsible for documentation to the Federal regulatory bodies who approve the products of her company.

Annie, student, is employed at a local aerospace company. She leads a team responsible for the implementation of a part of a new deployment of computing systems for the design and control of airplane configurations.

Ashley, student, is employed at a local beer and wine distributor. She works in their Marketing department and coordinates events and publicity. During the course of this paper she took a new job with a firm providing assisted living units on the Washington coast.

Barbara, student, is employed at local software company. She manages vendor and customer relations in a technical support role.

Bill, student, is employed at a local aerospace company. He is responsible for managing relations with suppliers of parts to the airplane manufacturing process.

Cindy, student, is employed at a local cable television company. She manages a group of telephone customer service representatives. During the course of this paper she took a job as a Marketing Manager for a new high speed Internet access product being introduced by her company.

Claire, student, is employed at a national storage facility manager. She works in Human Resources with responsibility for national employment and recruiting.

Dan, student, is a stay at home father. His recent professional experience was as a country director in the one of our National service agencies.

Dick, student, is a partner in a private consulting group specializing in telecommunications. He is also our sole foreign student and resides in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Don Comstock, faculty and GMP Program Director, was the core faculty director for the first year of GMP 98. In June of 1997 he also assumed the role of director of the GMP with the resignation of the original program director and founder, Sally Fox.

Joe, student, is employed at a local aerospace company. He performs a program management function which integrates cost and process improvements in the airplane manufacturing process.

Keith, student, is employed at a local aerospace company. He is an editor in one of their publishing groups.

Larry, student, is a private consultant specializing in Human Resources. During the course of this paper he took a job in Florida working Organizational Development for a major airline.

Laura, student, is employed at a local software company. She is responsible for the product management of one of their application packages.

Peter Martynowich, faculty, was part of the core faculty for the first year of GMP 98. He specializes in the area of leadership development.

Roger, student, is a self employed building contractor and an elected member of the one of the local school board.

RoseAnn Stevenson, faculty, will be a member of the second year core faculty for the GMP 98. She was not involved in the first year of the program. She will be responsible for leading the study of personal and organizational change.

Sadruddin Boga, faculty, is a new hire to Antioch. His appointment was announced July 2, 1997. He will be providing instruction in systems, operations, learning organizations and multiculturalism.

Sally Fox, past GMP Program Director, was the original founder of the GMP at Antioch. Her involvement has been minimal in the first year. She is recorded here should the transition from her leadership to Don’s leadership come up in discussion.

Sarah , student, is employed at local non-profit counseling service center. She is responsible for coordination of volunteer activity in the counseling unit.

Sharon, student, is employed at a national educational book and material supplier to schools and businesses. She is the company’s director of Human Resources.

Tim, student, is employed at a national manufacturer of exercise equipment. He is responsible for data systems development and support.

Tony, student and author of this paper, is employed at a local aerospace company. He is responsible for the implementation of the data network to support one of their commercial space programs.

Vicky, student, is employed at a local aerospace company. She manages a group of computing professionals with responsibility for one of their line of business computing systems.

Gary Zimmerman, faculty, joined the GMP 98 core faculty in June 1997. He was not involved with the cohort up to that point. He will be the core faculty director for our second year of study after a transition period from Don Comstock during Fall quarter. Gary is returning from a sabbatical leave from Antioch after resigning the position of Provost to return to teaching.

A Question of Validity

As this paper has come to this point a recurring question is likely occurring to the reader. The question of how a valid project of this nature can be designed when the conductor of the project will himself be a part of the project group upon which the project will be conducted. Such a question of course would be of common concern to a Western thinking population. And though I can not speak from experience, I would imagine it would be of less concern to an Eastern population.

To address this question lets consider the perspective of the I Ching and one of the scientific approaches mentioned in Chapter 2 - quantum physics.

The I Ching would naturally scoff at such a silly question. The idea of being able to separate a project conductor from a project is anathema to the entire notion of connectedness and wholeness. The I Ching would counter and say that since everything is connected to everything else, the Western notion of objective observation is what is really flawed. The Western idea that a project can be designed that does not include the observer in the observed data is impossible. By virtue of the observer observing, the data is not only altered, but in some sense actually created by the observer to form the conclusions the observer desires.

Interestingly this is the same conclusion the quantum physicist was drawn to in observing the way things work at the sub-atomic level of the universe. Recall the paradox from Chapter 2:

What one observes is actually a creation of what the observer wants to see. The outcome of the observance not only depends on what you set out to see, it also depends on your frame of mind.

If this is the case at the quantum level then could it not occur at the level of human-scale physical observation? In fact our literature is filled with numerous phrases and saying which suggest exactly that; e.g. "we create the future we desire", or "what I believe I can achieve", to name just two.

If the above is not enough to dispel the doubt this question illicits, consider the purpose of the project. What we are attempting to discover is if the intuitive insight the I Ching oracle opens to us has useful application in the traditional business model. Though we’re examining that question from the general level, it is natural that if the idea is sound, it would ultimately be practiced at the individual level. At the individual level the person consulting the I Ching would always be a part of the prediction or meaning being inquired of. With this in mind, even if we believe the project to be flawed, we can at least say the project is being accurately conducted in a way that matches how the I Ching oracle would be used if the conclusions of this paper result in a tool for practical day to day use.

Are we ready?

It is now time to test the ideas set forth in these chapters so far. The remainder of this paper, up to Chapter 7, will be an exploration of discovery. Our guide will be the I Ching oracle and the human minds that bear witness to the universal connection we share!

Chapter 4 September - Seabeck Retreat
Pre-module Oracle and Predictions

The Oracle - September 9, 1997

The cohort re-enters its face to face group learning environment with a weekend retreat at the Seabeck Conference Center. The retreat runs from the evening of Thursday, September 11 through the afternoon of Sunday, September 14, 1997.

The last time the group has been together formally was the June 1997 weekend module. A party was held in July which was attended by some, not all of the cohort. The group stayed in touch through its online conference, which had mixed participation, some did not participate at all.

Significant events known to the cohort from the online conversation over the summer:

Larry got a new job in Florida after doing a consultancy in the area. He will continue with us and commute cross-country on a monthly basis.
Ashley let us know of a new job opportunity she was offered and asked us for advice on whether to accept it before finally taking the job.
Cindy accepted a major change in assignment at TCI. She is now the Seattle sales manager for the new @Home internet access service being offered to cable customers for high-speed internet access.
There is disappointment at how the Seabeck retreat agenda was developed. It was to be a joint development with the faculty and it was put together by faculty alone. The cohort was assigned some limited responsibility without being consulted. When confronted with the disappointment it was not addressed directly and the cohort was advised the idea of joint development of the agenda was a misimpression on the cohort’s part.
There is a conversation online about leadership integrity. It began as a series of questions about one of several splits we have in our group, with an example being one between the points of view of Sharon/Roger and Tony/Dick. There was a heated dialogue from Sharon about not wanting to be named as representing others or to be spoken for. This lead to a conversation about using "accountable language"; i.e., using "I" instead of "we" or "us" when describing what one is experiencing. Now a conversation is underway as to whether "accountable language" is an illusion and perhaps hurting out group development.
Planning activity for the retreat events which are cohort responsibility was initiated by Sharon. Participation in this planning is mixed with most people on the side lines watching. One area - a box of welcome items from GMP 98 to GMP 99 - is the responsibility of Vicky who has not participated in the summer online dialogue. Other areas - a reconnect event for our cohort, a connect event with GMP 99 and a party on Saturday night - seem to be coming along okay, although we don’t know what the people on the side lines are thinking.
New faculty assignments have been communicated to the cohort. Most of the faculty will be new with minimum continuity provided by Don Comstock through the Fall Quarter. There was initial concern raised online and not much developed in the online dialogue.
The topic of developing support groups for PEPs is being communicated between various cohort members.
The idea of working again at developing a "vision statement" for our cohort was introduced by Cindy. The beginning conversation is a description of norm statements of how we could treat each other.
There is a suggestion to open up the GMP 98 online dialogue to the GMP 99 cohort which is entering in September.
There is a proposal to employ a consulting group headed by Dick’s mentor to do a group assessment using a personality inventory tool. This came up via another online community which Tony was involved with - Berkana Conversations - where he met Dick’s mentor online.

And so we begin…the first oracle!

What can I expect to see happening in our coming weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

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-------o-------

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Before looking up the meanings and names of this hexagram in the I Ching I note my great excitement. This is a very positive hexagram formation. The lines of the I Ching hexagrams enter from the bottom and in this case the strong, solid line are pushing out the lone remaining weak and broken line that remains at the top. In addition, the changing lines - the nines in the fourth and fifth positions - will result in the hexagram of Peace where heaven and earth are in perfect balance and harmony. I write:

The youngest daughter and her father give way to peace. The inferior lines are nearly banished and peace is on the way.

Kuai Break-through (Resoluteness)

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-------o-------

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Introductory notes explain that applied to the human condition this hexagram describes inferior people gradually disappearing. Their influence is on the wane as a result of resolute action. This leads to a break-through.

I note that I feel exactly like this as I head back to Seabeck. I feel our cohort has accumulated this critical mass of tension that will result in a break-through to some higher ground.

The Judgment

Break-through. One must resolutely make the matter known

At the court of the king.

It must be announced truthfully. Danger.

It is necessary to notify one's own city.

It does not further to resort to arms.

It furthers one to undertake something.

This means evil must be fought without quarter if the good is to prevail. There are three rules: 1) the fight must be based on friendliness and strength, 2) there can be no compromise with evil. It must be openly discredited even as you acknowledge your own weakness and 3) the fight must be without direct force. Evil is best fought by making energetic progress in the good.

This seems to refer to all the emotional baggage we have built up in the cohort around the questions of norms, leadership and program content. Apparently we are about to tackle our demons and create a break-through in these areas.

The Image

The lake has risen up to heaven:

The image of Break-through.

Thus the superior man

Dispenses riches downward

And refrains from resting on his virtue.

This describes riches accumulating and warns that this can lead to collapse if one is not careful. The remedy is to consider others and distribute the wealth as it is acquired. This develops character by avoiding obstinacy and continuing self-examination (see also the lines below, 9 in the fourth position).

As the break-through occurs there will be an acquiring of the wealth of positive influence within the cohort. We will need to guard against obstinacy and remember to share and allow everybody their individual leadership.

The Lines

Nine in fourth place means:

There is no skin on his thighs,

And walking comes hard.

If a man were to let himself be led like a sheep,

Remorse would disappear.

But if these words are heard

They will not be believed.

This describes one suffering inner restlessness and a desire to push forward under all circumstances, even though there are insuperable obstacles. This leads to an inner conflict because of an obstinate attempt to enforce ones will. If obstinacy could be avoided all would go well. But obstinacy destroys hearing so this warning will be ignored.

I had to laugh when I read this. A more perfect description of how our cohort approaches situations could not be written! We state a position and then hold it as if our very lives were at stake if we are asked to change. The warning is clear. We can create the break-through only if we control an obstinate tendency to push against peoples’ different ideas as if they were obstacles. Otherwise the break-through may falter. Now, will we listen?

Nine in fifth place means:

* In dealing with weeds,

Firm resolution is necessary.

Walking in the middle

Remains free of blame.

The asterisk denotes that this line is the ruler of the hexagram and of special importance to the meaning of the hexagram. It points out that weeds always grow back and are difficult to exterminate. A struggle against an inferior man in a high position demands resolution. Because one has certain relations with him there could be a tendency to give up. This must not be allowed for one to remain free of blame.

This line brings to mind the conflict our cohort has had with the formal authority of our faculty. The break-through will take us to a new place in this relationship. We must not give up our desire to stay there if we are to remain.

The hexagram now changes by virtue of the changing lines received above.

T'ai Peace

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The introduction notes that the Receptive (top trigram) moves down and the Creative (bottom trigram) moves up, meeting in harmony.

The Judgment

Peace. The small departs,

The great approaches.

Good fortune. Success.

Heaven seems to be on earth. A time of social harmony. An end to all feuds. Small, weak and evil elements are departing. Great, strong and good elements are moving in, bringing good fortune and success.

The initial hexagram has changed to a dramatic re-enforcement of a positive outcome to the break-through described in the first hexagram. The cohort seems destined to have a very successful time and develop a strong degree of harmony and resolution of discord.

The Image

Heaven and earth unite: the image of Peace.

Thus the ruler

Divides and completes the course of heaven and earth;

He furthers and regulates the gifts of heaven and earth,

And so aids the people.

Heaven and earth combine their influence to create universal flowering and prosperity. It is a time to do the proper work of nature by discovering the natural divisions that further growth; e.g., the seasons of the year, the hemispheres of the globe.

We are given our work as a cohort; create harmony and peace in the cohort. The time is right. Now we must divide our tasks with each of us working to our strengths.

The Predictions

In respect to the cohort and the coming retreat these predictions are recorded:

We will begin with an initial tension around our unresolved questions from last year.
There will be some people who will be very focused on the negative aspects of how our cohort is developing.
We will take resolute action to dispel the negative influences in our cohort.
As we achieve our break-through some people will attempt to use their new influence without considering others.
We will observe many periods of obstinate holding to positions.
Our break-through will be achieved and result in peace and harmony among ourselves.
We will be challenged to maintain our break-through.
We will authorize our cohort as a peer authority for content creation in the program.
Our peer authority relationship will be challenged by the faculty and we will need to work to maintain it.

Post-module Oracle and Interpretation of Meaning

The Oracle - September 15, 1997

The GMP 98 cohort met from Thursday evening, September 11 to Sunday afternoon, September 14 for its first module of the second and final year of the program. The module was formatted as a weekend retreat gathering at the Seabeck Conference Center in Seabeck, Washington.

Significant events which occurred and may be enlightened by the I Ching oracle:

Our module check-in on Friday afternoon brought forth three traumatic and emotional stories from Keith, Dan and me. This was a break-through for me as it was the first time I fully shared deeply the details of the turmoil in my life.
The Friday evening video discussion was disrupted by my leaving the group because of fatigue and boredom. I was later woken and forced to rejoin the discussion to learn my disappearance had caused major turmoil in the well being of the group.
A subset of the cohort met after the Friday video to discuss with Don the events of the evening. This conversation went on well past midnight. I was not a part of the conversation and heard of it the next day at breakfast.
A community session was used to confront me with a group issue around my control and power over the group, one of our most pressing group problems. This was something that was very apparent and uncomfortable to me and yet neither I nor the group seemed to be able to bring it to a public forum in a way which could resolve it. Instead I had become the focus of our group tension around power and control. This was a break-through but it took someone outside our group, our guest speaker, to bring voice to the question. We achieved another break-through when the group acknowledged our co-creation in the situation and resolved to allow me out of this role. From this point forward I finally felt accepted by this group.
We achieved break-through with the creation of two norms of behavior as a group and one other tentatively, plus possible actions we could take to form a learning community. We worked through these norms together and agreed to keep them posted at our future modules. We also agreed to accept the reality that these norms could very well need to be revisited.
We achieved break-through on Sunday afternoon. When confronted with the choice to continue working community questions or doing preliminary work on establishing Student Design Module topics we chose to continue working community questions. In the past we have always taken every opportunity to avoid community questions and used the content work of the cohort as a convenient way of doing so.
A community session was used to confront Sharon and Roger with the group issue of their pairing to the exclusion of the rest of the cohort. This behavior formed a second large problem for our group, together with the problem previous described around power and control. And again, we had never before found a way to bring the question to our public forum for resolution. This was a break-through because the group was able to bring voice to an unspoken behavior we had previously reserved for private conversation. Again, the group acknowledged our co-creation of the situation and began to explore the topic of exclusion and safety in our group. There seemed to be less resolution to this problem because it did not seem Roger and Sharon could acknowledge their role in creating the group problem.

What were the meanings in the events of our just past weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

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This hexagram is an old friend and there was no need to look up its name, it is Youthful Folly. It also does not change to another hexagram in this oracle appearance. It is stable and sits advising us to listen very carefully and fully. In earlier days I would almost fear this oracle, as if it were mocking my maturity. Now I find this hexagram comes at opportune times and provides my greatest lessons. I write before consulting the text:

Youthful Folly always brings advice. Look carefully for the message.

Mo'^e'ng Youthful Folly

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The introductory notes describe the immaturity of youth as lack of wisdom, not stupidity. The spring rising below the mountain is an image of inexperienced youth. Stopping (Mountain) before an abyss (Abysmal, Water) is a folly of youth. The trigrams show the way. The spring gushes forth, not knowing where it will go. Its water fills the deep places blocking its path which leads to success and progress.

Our cohort is described as immature. We find ourselves stopping at the brink of perceived danger. We must plunge into the abyss and trust we will fill the chasms of our empty wisdom in so doing.

The Judgment

Youthful Folly has success.

It is not I who seek the young fool;

The young fool seeks me.

At the first oracle I inform him.

If he asks two or three times, it is importunity.

If he importunes, I give him no information.

Perseverance furthers.

When young, folly is not an evil. Find an experienced teacher. Be conscious of your lack of experience and seek out the teacher with respectful acceptance. No mistrustful or unintelligent questioning can be tolerated or else silence and no answers are given. Yet, the teacher perseveres and we master our points one by one.

The oracle sees our cohort as young and our folly to be expected. We need to seek out our teachers with respect for their experience and wisdom. While we often question in inappropriate ways, this is to be expected, and our teachers answer with silence. Our teachers are counseled to persevere patiently, waiting, while we master our lessons one step at a time.

The Image

A spring wells up at the foot of the mountain:

The image of Youth.

Thus the superior man fosters his character

By thoroughness in all that he does.

Character develops like a spring, gradually and steadily filling up all gaps and flowing onward.

Our cohort’s development is analyzed as developing, slowly, like a spring. In time we will have filled in our gapping inexperience and be able to move on to greater challenges.

Outcome of the Predictions

As we examine the oracle, the events of the past weekend are brought into a clear focus around the hexagram of Youthful Folly. Taking the images and ideas from the reading a number of insights can be reflected on for our cohort around the themes of our group and our teachers.

Our group lack of wisdom, as suggested by this reading, is very apparent when we examine our ability to deal with group processes, which was the dominate theme of our retreat at Seabeck. As can be seen even in the history of the cohort in Chapter 3 this has been one of the biggest challenges faced by our group. Our inability to establish explicit and agreed norms of behavior led to severe problems as we confronted out authority and learning objectives as a group. The oracle takes this opportunity to present the observation of Youthful Folly at a time when it is clear we are ready to deal with our immaturity. In the image of the spring, the oracle shows us the way to fill our gaps and flow onward.

The image of stopping before an abyss is especially poignant to me as it so dramatically describes what we have been doing as a group when we approach our group process work. The tensions and misunderstandings between people have been like a huge chasm which seemed impossible to cross. We would stop and talk about our crossing. We would look all around and suggest building material for the crossing. We would run up and down the edge of the chasm looking for some safe way to go. What we could not do was simply jump in and trust our ability to fill the chasm with our growing spring of knowledge so we could move on from the other side.

This weekend was different, perhaps because of the tension and build-up described in the pre-module oracle of Break-through. We were ready to jump and simply awaited the catalyst. This appeared on Friday night when my leaving the group caused such a disruption. A subset of the group began the work that evening and then, with the help of our outside guest, we finally gave voice to a large community problem, around my power and control over the group, the next day. This plunge into the abyss showed us the foolishness of our folly. We survived. We were able to speak the unspeakable and see the perspectives of those in the controversy. Me, as I struggled from a focus of attention, which though I may have created it, was thrust upon me with such solidarity as to paralyze the group from developing its own power and control. The group, as we discovered our inner fear of power and control, concepts who’s images seemed contrary to our purposes together, but which are needed in some form for every social interaction to succeed.

So the plunge showed us we could survive when we have the courage to directly address our group behavior. From that point it was as if the spring was released. We created the beginnings of norms. We addressed the second of our major group issues as focused around Sharon and Roger - exclusion and safety. And, perhaps of most significance, when faced with the choice to go away from group process work, with this second major question unresolved, we did not stop at the brink of the abyss as was our previous experience. Instead we plunged in and began to fill the chasm, just as the oracle of Youthful Folly suggests is the way beyond the abyss.

The oracle presents a strong message to our cohort concerning the relationship with our teachers which was also very present during our retreat. The oracle counsels us to seek out an experienced teacher. This need was met at the Seabeck retreat in the person of RoseAnn Stevenson. RoseAnn guided nearly every group session we had at the retreat with the exception of the Friday evening and Saturday morning sessions our guest speaker. RoseAnn provided a structured approach and a light hand as she allowed us to approach and then test our ability to deal with the group questions previously described.

The oracle’s caution to the student about questioning especially caught my eye in this respect. The oracle warns of questioning that is mistrustful or unintelligent and counsels silence from the teacher at these times. This very closely describes how our cohort often questioned RoseAnn this week. We would use questions about the negotiation process she had introduced to suggest it wasn’t appropriate to the topics we had at hand. We wanted her to defend her process. Instead she was willing to let it go and allow us to head in our own direction without her. We knew from past experience where that could lead (not good) and her act of not-answering led us back to the method we knew we could get her help with. She kept control of our process the entire weekend in this way. Allowing us to explore fully our group interest while intervening only when we needed the guidance of an experienced teacher.

The final note, to the teacher, is directed at RoseAnn and is a breathtaking piece of advice in keeping with the events of the weekend. The oracles counsels the teacher to persevere, to go slowly, at a pace the group will hold, to not be discouraged as the students learn their lessons. There were many times when it almost looked like RoseAnn wanted to throw up hers hands and be done with us. She did not succumb to those impulses. She stayed with us and trusted us to master our points one by one. Though I’m certain we have many more lessons to learn, her gentle patience and trust in us allowed us to learn on our own with her experience as a guide.

September Conclusions

The predictions made prior to the module will now be examined one by one against the events of the Seabeck retreat and an assessment made as to how accurate the oracle was in its predictions.

Before going into the specific predictions, however, I feel inspired by how accurate the images invoked by the two hexagrams received prior to the weekend were. One could say that the overall prediction of the pre-module oracle was: Break-through will be followed by Peace. A better overall assessment of what we encountered would be difficult to achieve.

As for the specific predictions that now follow, the tally stands at:

Six accurate predictions
Two inaccurate predictions
One partially accurate prediction
One prediction which may be fully accurate upon further reflection and is at least partially accurate now

Prediction: We will begin with an initial tension around our unresolved questions from last year.

This condition was very evident as we came together on Thursday evening and into Saturday morning. The campfire of Thursday night was almost somber in its tone. Through Saturday morning, up until we confronted me through our guest speaker’s intervention, it was if we were on egg shells waiting for an eruption around our group issues.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: There will be some people who will be very focused on the negative aspects of how our cohort is developing.

Many times we would find ourselves diverted as we focused on how badly we were working together. It was not until Sunday afternoon, in fact, that someone remarked we should look at all the work of the weekend as positive given how far we had been able to get in working through deep seated group issues. In general, we seemed to see the negatives in our group development and worried we would not be able to work through them right up until we began to break up. Then, in looking back, the positive of our group work was evident.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: We will take resolute action to dispel the negative influences in our cohort.

This was a very evident condition. Once we had begun to confront our group issues it was as if we couldn’t wait to tackle the next one. A story from Sunday afternoon comes to mind around how we made the choice to continue with group work instead of working toward Student Design Module topics.

We had begun to take pseudo votes on decisions by asking people to stand up if they agreed with something. When the question of what we should do with our Sunday afternoon was posed this pseudo voting resulted in 3-4 people not standing. In the past this would have paralyzed us as we worked to convince the others they should join. This time however we asked if not standing meant we could not proceed. Those who were sitting answered they would join in group work if that was the decision of the group as a whole. We then went forward with the group work.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: As we achieve our break-through some people will attempt to use their new influence without considering others.

I did not see this prediction play out during the weekend. It wasn’t obvious if people were gaining influence they did not have before from the group work we were doing. Even if this were the case, it seemed we maintained a very balanced sharing of influence as our conversations proceeded.

I do not believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: We will observe many periods of obstinate holding to positions.

This was evident on occasion with one dramatic example coming to mind.

The situation occurred when we were coming to agreement on norms. Sharon and Roger were disturbed that the pace of our agreement making was too slow and they began to do advance reading in their text books. Larry interrupted the group to say that he could not continue if these two insisted on doing this. A conflict arose, which also engaged the group, and which became a matter of honor on each side - keeping books open vs asking for books closed. Resolution took nearly a half hour and resulted in the books being put away.

While this was an extreme example there were other minor incidences where obstinacy could be described; e.g., when Ashley left the cohort upset and could not be convinced to return. All in all, though obstinacy was apparent at times it did not seem to be a major question during the weekend.

I believe this prediction was partially accurate.

Prediction: Our break-through will be achieved and result in peace and harmony among ourselves.

I do believe we achieved break-through as described in the background to the post-module oracle. We also seemed to leave the retreat in a much easier frame of mind than in previous encounters. As I noted in the history of the cohort, we left Seabeck last year with a false sense of togetherness. This year my sense was of a group that had seen itself for the first time and was prepared to accept much more what it was, both good and bad. This acceptance could be described as peace and harmony, though I think the proof is yet to come.

I believe this prediction was accurate in predicting our break-throughs. Whether we have developed peace and harmony is difficult to say with certainty.

Prediction: We will be challenged to maintain our break-through.

This may go without saying because break-throughs are always difficult to maintain. Given we did achieve break-throughs there was evidence of the challenge to maintain them.

Using the development of norms as an example, we had agreed to keep posted the agreements we had made. Yet, as we broke for the weekend there was very little care given to preserving the pieces of paper on which we had recorded our agreement. RoseAnn and I took the lead on ensuring we did not lose the agreements and saved them to bring back next month. Now the challenge will be if they arrive to be posted for our October module and if we do the difficult work of holding ourselves to our commitments.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: We will authorize our cohort as a peer authority for content creation in the program.

We did not do much content creation during our retreat. However, this could be an ironic representation of this prediction. The cohort did gain a sort of peer authority to create what we wanted to see done during the weekend. In that respect we created content that was the process work of the group. When I made this prediction, though, I was thinking of content as technical work; i.e., strategy, marketing, etc., not process work as content. Given, however, that we did maintain a peer relationship with our faculty over the weekend for deciding what we would work on I am inclined to believe this prediction was accurate.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: Our peer authority relationship will be challenged by the faculty and we will need to work to maintain it.

I did not observe resistance on the part of our faculty to the peer authority model we began to operate under with this module. For at least this weekend I would have to say this was not an accurate prediction.

I do not believe this prediction was accurate.

Preliminary Observations on Applying the Oracle Method

Was the oracle of Youthful Folly useful in understanding the meaning of events at the GMP 98 retreat? Was it relevant to the happenings of the weekend?

The oracle provides a metaphor of our group, describing us as a youth who’s immaturity has paralyzed our ability to move forward in the face of danger. The metaphor extends to the danger, which can be seen as working group processes, when it involves confronting people issues directly and in a public forum. This is not something that people tend to be comfortable with in general. In our public group life we are trained to submerge our feelings about others and "get on with business". In our cohort environment we have not had this luxury. The design of the GMP brings the conflicts between people into play on a regular basis. Not to put people at odds over personal differences, rather, to show how group processes can impact and influence the behaviors of individuals in groups. Our cohort fell into the typical pattern of submerging feeling and allowing them to explode in a myriad of unrelated incidents. We all knew what was underlying these incidents, we needed only listen in the hallways during breaks. Yet, we could not bring ourselves to bring small private conversations into the group as a whole.

The metaphor provided by Youthful Folly seems to capture this phenomena remarkably well. The image of a youth standing on the brink of an abyss, unable to move, unable to conceive of a way across is a frighteningly accurate portrayal of our group around this problem in our first year together. The actions of a spring, or water, when its approaches such an abyss; i.e., plunging over the edge to fill the abyss slowly and steadily, seems to suggest the correct course of action to this problem and also seems to describe the action we took as a cohort over the course of this retreat weekend.

Given the above discussion we would have to conclude that the oracle does provide useful assistance and help in understanding the events of the September retreat module. It also points to our future development and provides a way to speak of how to pursue our objective. By keeping in mind the immaturity of our development and considering ourselves as a small spring at the headwaters of a great river further downstream we can see how a plunge into the abyss of our fears can achieve great ends. Further, the counsel for and about our teacher has also come at a very opportune time. As we begin our last year of study, it is a good time to remind both student and teacher of the interdependence of their roles in progressing toward learning objectives together.

From the outcome of the predictions - between 60% - 80% accurate - and the insights provided by the post-module oracle I feel very comfortable saying that there was something added to the experience of this past weekend by having read and reflected on these I Ching oracle readings. Questions come to mind, though, that do not have easy answers. What if I had gotten any other oracle reading? Would I have been able to make predictions and connections in the same way? What if one of my other classmates had done an oracle reading? They would likely have received a different reading. Would that reading have also predicted and enlightened as meaningfully? In different areas? That I’m not seeing? So what, perhaps, am I missing? With all this uncertainty, can there be any practical application for this method?

All these questions and more were racing through my head as I recorded the conclusions in this section of this paper. The best answer that occurred to me and which may lead to an application came as I considered the work of Dr. de Bono, described in Chapter 3. If we consider the I Ching oracle to be a random entry method, which it most assuredly is, then we could say the same as for the creativity technique of random entry: "It always works!" Because from a creative sense every idea is connected to every other idea and as we’ve already said, this is the same basis on which the I Ching is founded, that everything is connected to everything. So why wouldn’t the oracle reading always work too?

It may be that this is where we’ll find application as this project progresses. If we proceed from the basis of the I Ching as a powerful random entry method we may be able to devise a tool that will assist the business user.

In the case of this weekend with the GMP it was of assist to me, for example. Even before I obtained the oracle of Break-through I could have described our cohort as in a state of tension. With the fore knowledge that this tension would be dealt with constructively it was actually easier for me to bear the tension as it rose to climax. I remember thinking and wondering if we would ever get to a break-through as the tension heightened from Thursday evening though Saturday afternoon because we seemed to be falling into familiar patterns up to that point. Knowing that the oracle had predicted we would achieve a break-through made it easier to bear. Then when the first break-though occurred (directed at me!) it was almost a relief and I could sit in the moment and feel assured that peace and harmony would follow. So in that respect, the oracle prepared me with hope, and a future, during what otherwise could have been a devastatingly traumatic personal crisis, at least for the period in which I was the center of the group’s attention.

I’m not yet sure what to make of the post-module oracle. It seems relevant and helps to understand what occurred. Again, as a random entry method it found a connection that already existed and provided additional insight by being presented for reflection. When I began this project I felt the post-module oracles would require some further examination against the future development of our cohort before an application could be identified. This feels especially evident at this time and I believe we will need to see what happens in our October and November modules to gain a real appreciation of the meaning power of the oracle.

One area to be aware of in this respect may be an application of the oracle as a reflective tool for examining events as they are unfolding. As mentioned above the reflection on the readings around the Seabeck module allowed me some comfort in knowing how events were predicted to unfold and assisted me in an understanding of the meaning of the weekend events.

As we mentioned in setting out this project in the Chapter 3 overview, we are capturing at this time early patterns and ideas of application for further exploration after the study period concludes. So for now, it appears there are two potential areas which emerge: The oracle as a random entry device, and the oracle as a reflective tool.

Chapter 5 October - The Twilight Zone
Pre-module Oracle and Predictions

The Oracle - September 29, 1997

The cohort returns to a regular weekend schedule as we resume our studies with the first of a three part series in Strategy, Structure and Systems: A Mature Context. Following this will be the November module aimed at the Entrepreneurial Context and the December module examining the Professional Services Context.

Background events and thoughts which come to mind which may impact the happenings of the coming module:

This will be our first meeting in a new classroom space which Antioch relocated to over the Summer.
This will be our first experience with a core faculty that does not include Don in a full-time role.
I’m contemplating how and if Youthful Folly will continue to play out in our cohort. If we will continue to have the courage to leap into the abyss when confronted with a learning challenge in our group, either content or process.
I wonder if the group problem we dealt with at Seabeck of my power and control over the group will resurface. The group discovered we’ve been using this to avoid its problems with power and control. While it feels resolved toward me and I can now enter the group as a peer I’m not sure we’re comfortable with the concept of power and control in general. Will this result in the group working to put me back in an established role? Will the group reassign my role to different players?
I wonder if the group problem we dealt with at Seabeck of the pairing of Roger and Sharon will resurface. The group discovered we’ve been using this to avoid dealing with exclusion and safety in the group. The question did not seem to be completely resolved even at Seabeck, because Sharon and Roger did not acknowledge their role in co-creating the problem, thereby possibly allowing us to keep the question focused on them.
I wonder how the norms we established will be recognized as alive and guiding our behavior. I’m especially curious to see if the work we did at Seabeck is posted as a reminder for us to refer to as needed.
There has been only three weeks of time between this module and Seabeck, which has made the between module assignments a challenge to complete. We normally have four to five weeks between modules.
The pre-module reading is suggesting to me possible applications for the use of the I Ching oracle in the creation of strategy, structure and systems. The readings suggest a strong need for intuition as analytical tools are applied. It may be the approach of the I Ching could be a way of systematizing intuition in a way that can be repeated and understood in this planning and creation process.
The online dialogue has been more subdued and different people than usual have participated. The online topics have been mostly concentrated around leadership and focus on the question of how to balance the content of our learning with the process of our learning. Limited conversation had occurred in the online about the readings assigned to get us ready for the subject of our weekend module.
A study group meeting was held at Laura’s house and attended by Barbara and Annie. There is a proposal to continue this meeting on a weekly basis and the conversation is now on where and when for maximum participation.
The proposal to employ a consulting group headed by Dick’s mentor to do a group assessment using a personality inventory tool is still alive. The conversation is headed toward incorporating the tool and Dick’s mentor into a Student Designed Module later in this school year.
In the online conversations and activity mentioned above it looks like the cohort is beginning to do the work necessary to maintain our role as co-creator of our module content and learning experience.

What can I expect to see happening in our coming weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

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So exciting, this looks like another strong and positive oracle! Before I look up the hexagrams I note the top three lines form the trigram of Arousing, Thunder, the bottom three lines the trigram of Creative, Heaven. The changing six in the fifth position will bring us once again the hexagram of Break-through which we received prior to our Seabeck experience. I write:

Thunder in the heavens, heralding, once again, Break-through! Break-through returns, this time after a great commotion (thunder in heaven).

Ta Chuang The Power of the Great

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The introductory notes say: "the union of movement (The Arousing, Thunder) and strength (The Creative, Heaven) gives the meaning of The Power of the Great."

Our cohort is described as having attained the power of the great. We are ready to move with strength toward our learning objectives. Both trigrams ascend easily with unstoppable power and force.

The Judgment

The Power of the Great. Perseverance furthers.

Inner worth mounts with great force and comes to power. Danger, do not rely on power alone. Ask: "What is right?" Hold the moment, wait for the right time. Remain united with the principles of right and justice. Greatness and justice must be united! This is what happens in Heaven and on Earth.

We seem ready to ascend to claim and recognize our inner worth as a group. This discovery could lead us to be over confident in our strength and we must remember to examine our actions in the like of right and justice. In doing this we will establish our cohort as acting in accord with heaven and earth.

The Image

Thunder in heaven above:

The image of the Power of the Great.

Thus the superior man does not tread upon paths

That do not accord with established order.

Thunder rise in harmony with the movement of heaven. In times of great power move in accord with the established order.

Things may be accomplished now. Because of our strength we can use the established order to move us forward. No need to fight against authority, ours or faculty, both can assist in their own way.

The Lines

Six in fifth place means:

Loses the goat with ease.

No remorse.

The goat is hard outside, weak inside. Everything is easy now, there is no more resistance. It is now possible to give up belligerence and stubbornness without regret.

We will find our work so easy as a group that we’ll forget about petty differences as we dive in and accomplish our work together.

As I moved on to the next hexagram I captured this thought:

The Break-through now returns again. This time after The Power of the Great, when all is easy.

Kuai Break-through (Resoluteness)

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A Break-through after a long accumulation of tension.

The Judgment

Break-through. One must resolutely make the matter known

At the court of the king.

It must be announced truthfully. Danger.

It is necessary to notify one's own city.

It does not further to resort to arms.

It furthers one to undertake something.

As with last month we must fight our evil influences without quarter if the good is to prevail. There are three rules: 1) the fight must be based on friendliness and strength, 2) there can be no compromise with evil. It must be openly discredited even as you acknowledge your own weakness and 3) the fight must be without direct force. Evil is best fought by making energetic progress in the good.

The change to this hexagram seems to go hand in hand with the previous hexagram this month. We have accumulated so much power, seen such good results that we will continue to seek break-throughs in our group learning environment, continue to purge the evil influences hindering our group development.

The Image

The lake has risen up to heaven:

The image of Break-through.

Thus the superior man

Dispenses riches downward

And refrains from resting on his virtue.

The water of the lake rises to the heaven threatening a cloudburst. This is a warning to forestall violent collapse. As wealth rises, distribute the accumulations. Remain receptive to impressions through strict and continuous self-examination.

Once again we are reminded to not get too confident in our personal accomplishments. We must remain mindful of all our group and be sure all get equal share in what we create together.

I close by summarizing the two readings with this observation:

Our movement as a cohort continues upward. Break-throughs continue. We continue to purge our group of the evil influences of our fears.

The Predictions

In respect to the cohort and the coming retreat these predictions are recorded:

We will take our first real steps toward creating a group learning vision that we can all agree to and help each other to succeed in.
We will recognize our capacity to understand the concepts of strategy, structure and systems within the experiences we have had in our workplaces.
Some of our cohort will emerge as the real teachers during the faculty led sessions and they will provide the real lessons of our learning.
The order established through the norms we developed at Seabeck will keep us on track during difficult times that arise throughout the weekend.
We will listen and believe what we hear from others without having to prove we have a better answer.
We will address our group issue of exclusion and safety as embodied in Sharon and Roger pairing in exclusion from the group.
We will acknowledge and give credit as we see our leaders emerge.

Post-module Oracle and Interpretation of Meaning

The Oracle - October 5, 1997

The October module of GMP 98 met from Friday, October 3 to Sunday, October 5 on its normal weekend schedule, which included day classes with evenings at home. This month’s background to the post-module I Ching oracle will consist of a narrative of thoughts and events.

I was absent from class on Friday and began my experience with the Saturday morning agenda. We had a guest instructor who was to give us background on reorganizations related to his experience as a vice-president at The Port of Seattle. I was a bit dismayed during the presentation because the speaker was employing a standard lecture style which in the past was not well received by our cohort. Also, the content of his presentation seemed a bit disjointed and this has been a source of discontent with us before.

My dismay came because we were allowing it to continue just as we had in the past. I was expecting (because of the pre-module oracle) that we would begin to challenge this type of teaching. Instead what I observed was a majority of us check out and not pay attention for the speaker’s three hours of lecture! There were some questions from the cohort aimed at moving the instruction to a different level but they were unsuccessful. I made these notes during the lecture regarding the speaker and the presentation:

Once upon a time…there was me (the speaker)…and I had a plan…to succeed…and I worked at The Port of Seattle

We sit and listen….once again?

I Ching predictions? Maybe it’s more an indication of what could be…if we choose to make it so!

If we continue like this will the I Ching blast us?

This was our morning.

And then came magic! We returned from lunch and someone mentioned that Laura had a comment she wanted to make before we began the afternoon. What she said nearly floored me in its accuracy as predicted by the pre-module oracle of Break-through:

"I feel like one more time I’ve sat in a lecture for an entire morning and gotten nothing out of it."

It was as if the dam had burst and we were set free to take responsibility for our own learning. Then even better, we did not let this intervention side rail our entire afternoon, as has usually happened in the past. We referred to our negotiated agreements from Seabeck after only 20 minutes of dialogue and returned back to our stated agenda, with a promise to return to the topic in our scheduled community time.

And we did! Another break-through. In the past when we’ve left a topic as volatile as this its been gone, too painful to readdress. This time we made the time for it after our afternoon session and we worked through the questions in one of our more open and direct - not confrontational - community time sessions to date.

My notes from the afternoon session read:

Begin with didn’t like the morning session.

No, Laura took us to the check-out of the group (during the morning session).

We want to learn how to:

learn from each other (we recognized we could have helped the speaker to learn from us and the experience we had in the room)
learn with the speakers (the conversations were all about how we could have intervened with what we knew to help our guest)

This was our Saturday, I left feeling, WOW!

Our Sunday session continued the experience of the previous day. We engaged in a constructive content session around a case study. Nothing remarkable happened during this time, though we did seem to be better able to listen to each other and hear the experience we had to offer to the case. Our community session this day resulted in three decisions during the group discussion: 1) a new time schedule for our weekend modules, 2) the use and selection of process observers for the November module, and 3) a process to be used to develop Collaborative Design Modules for our 1998 sessions. This was another step forward for us as we have found it extremely difficult to come to group decisions on these types of items. We have traditionally broken down into factions after we have our options before us and then not come to conclusion on a decision.

Finally, during an afternoon Open Space and in our closing of the weekend, we found ourselves beginning to listen to and give ourselves credit for the experience in our group and the progress we have made as a group.

We even went so far as to consider the option of creating a panel of the four entrepreneurs in our own cohort as a part of our November content learning!

We even broached and began to take action on creating a shared learning vision for our cohort!

As we were leaving I began to wonder if I was imagining the events of the weekend. They seemed so in concert with the pre-module predictions that I wondered if I was simply seeing things as I wanted them to be. No one other than myself had seen the predictions so I asked Cindy, who was sitting next to me, to read the copy I had with me and check those she felt she’d seen during the weekend. She returned the list with 6 of the 7 predictions checked off. She was also visibly stunned at knowing they had been written down before we had met for the weekend. Her exact words were something like: "That’s amazing! I may have to come see you more about that stuff!"

So, what do you suppose the I Ching will make of this in a post module oracle?

What were the meanings in the events of our just past weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

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As the hexagram appears…now I’m stunned! I don’t need to look this oracle up. We have seen it before. Youthful Folly again! This time changing to Ko'^e'n, Keeping Still, Mountain, the same hexagram as I received in the Preface of this paper as I began with an inquiry of the I Ching oracle! I record this thought:

Our development at the abyss continues, as we search for our quiet heart.

Mo'^e'ng Youthful Folly

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We are reminded of youth and folly as with last month’s post-module oracle. The trigrams show the way beyond. Gush forth like the spring, fill up the deep place blocking our progress.

We are cautioned that we are still immature in being able to deal with the progress and break-throughs we are achieving. We must continue, however, even as we may feel we are tumbling into a deep abyss, knowing that we are filling the void to cross over to the other side.

The Judgment

Youthful Folly has success.

It is not I who seek the young fool;

The young fool seeks me.

At the first oracle I inform him.

If he asks two or three times, it is importunity.

If he importunes, I give him no information.

Perseverance furthers.

In times of youth, folly is not an evil. Find a teacher, have the right attitude. The teacher waits to be asked. Be careful how you ask, without importunity. The teacher must be patient too.

As with last month we must be aware of our youth and folly. We must find our teachers and not be afraid to ask questions. Being careful to question correctly so that information will be forthcoming. In any case, the teacher is patient and will wait. This seems to play in with pre-module oracle prediction #3, pg. 62, of looking to our cohort for our teachers. Also, recall how we are entertaining the notion of using our own members as a panel of experts?

The Image

A spring wells up at the foot of the mountain:

The image of Youth.

Thus the superior man fosters his character

By thoroughness in all that he does.

Fill up the hollow places and flow on, in this way character is developed.

We are encouraged to just keep doing it. Continue to flow and know the result is an ever greater degree of character as a group.

Though we received the same post-module oracle as last month (Youthful Folly), this month there are changing lines in the second and third positions. This mean that the oracle has additional insight on our group development. It also means that we will move to another hexagram for even more help on where we are going after considering this hexagram.

The Lines

Nine in second place means:

* To bear with fools in kindliness brings good fortune.

To know how to take women

Brings supreme good fortune.

The son is capable of taking charge of the household.

The asterisk in the first line of the reading means the nine in the second place is the ruler of this hexagram and has special significance when it appears as a changing line. A man with no external power, with strength of mind to bear responsibility, inner superiority and strength to tolerate with kindliness the shortcomings of human folly. Combine inner strength with inner reserve to take on responsibility of directing a larger social body with real success.

The oracle is pointing at someone in our group who we could authorize to help us achieve our common objectives. This is the teacher alluded to above who is waiting patiently. Who we have been questioning in importunity and receiving no information. It feels like me. How I have been feeling, in and about, this group. So now I’m reminded of the pre-module oracle: "…to not get too confident in our personal accomplishments." (pg. 62), and I wonder: "Is this just what I wish to be true?"

Six in third place means:

Take not a maiden who, when she sees a man of bronze,

Loses possession of herself.

Nothing furthers.

A weak, inexperienced person, struggling to rise, slavishly imitates a strong personality of higher station. Provide no encouragement, bad for the youth and the teacher.

We are given more clues as to who our teacher is. One who is being constantly challenged by another who yearns for the teacher’s position. I think of Roger and how he has been attacking me since our cohort formed in September of 1996. I wonder again, as above: "Is this just what I wish to be true?" Sometimes the oracle drives me crazy!

Ko'^e'n Keeping Still, Mountain

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Rest as movement comes to a natural end, achieving a quiet heart.

It is as if with all our break-through and youthful folly we must now take time for quiet reflection.

The Judgment

Keeping Still. Keeping his back still

So that he no longer feels his body.

He goes into his courtyard

And does not see his people.

No blame.

Keep still when it is time, go forward when it is time. This is true quiet. Rest and movement agree. Ego disappears. The struggle and tumult of individuals disappears in true peace of mind. Now we can understand the great laws of the universe and act in harmony with them.

We are learning our lessons and the result will be quiet strength within the cohort. We develop our group strength, the individual melding into the greater whole. We move when we must, we stand still when we must, in harmony, together.

The Image

Mountains standing close together:

The image of Keeping Still.

Thus the superior man

Does not permit his thoughts

To go beyond his situation.

Restrict thoughts to the immediate situation. Thinking beyond only makes the heart sore.

We are where we are in our group development. Well along our way, a long path to go. Don’t worry about the path, the destination. Act in the now and trust in the proper end arriving as it will.

Outcome of the Predictions

As I mentioned earlier, when this month’s post-module oracle appeared, I was literally stunned. I have been using the I Ching off and on since 1979. Since 1989 I’ve used it regularly and established a formal means of tracking oracle occurrences. This is the first time I have seen an oracle repeat itself in the very next questioning session. Also, the appearance of recurring oracles in such a short period of time, and in relationship to the same questions, is a new phenomenon to me. I would imagine the statistical significance of this happening now could be dismissed as mere coincidence. Yet, somehow the image of Jung’s scarab bug and synchronicity comes racing into my head, with a loudspeaker blaring: "THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS COINCIDENCE!" Not to mention, that once again the oracle provides tremendous insight into the meaning of the events that transpired during our weekend module. Especially if we consider the oracles of October and September as being connected, in the way they seem to want us to believe, by their reoccurring pattern of appearance.

Reappearing in the oracle of Youthful Folly seems very purposeful to this project since I am seeking to discover if the I Ching oracle can be applied to a business setting. It seems very appropriate to remind a youth, of his youth, and the folly it entails. Last month we received the first lesson. This month we are reminded of the lesson before moving on to the next - seeking a quiet heart. Its almost like returning to grade school (as a youth) after summer break. The teacher always begins with a review of last year’s lessons before moving on to new material. So in this way it is as if the oracle is acting as a teacher so we can see the value of its application in a business setting.

Even within the oracle of Youthful Folly a few new lessons occur when considered with the pre-module oracle of this month. The advice to seek the patient teacher takes on new meaning when coupled with a prediction that we would begin to see the teachers in the midst of our cohort. When we find that we actually take action in this direction, by considering a panel of our peers as experts, the prediction and the advice seem to marry together into a seamless whole. Then the oracle of Youthful Folly ends with encouragement to just keep on doing it, almost as if that’s the end of the review session and a call to move on to next lessons.

I am very hesitant and unsure about the interpretation I gave to the changing lines of the hexagram of Youthful Folly as it relates to my role in the cohort. The interpretation rings true for me, yet so does the question: "Is this just what I wish to be true?" I know the answer to the question to be: "Yes", and so I have to question whether my ego simply blinds me to the true teacher in our cohort. In any case, I do feel comfortable with the interpretation that we have a hidden teacher waiting patiently to emerge. So the challenge is to allow this teacher to emerge whether it is me or someone else. On this point, again we could consider the pre-module oracle of Break-through, as it reminds us to not get too confident in our personal accomplishments.

Moving to the hexagram that follows - Keeping Still, Mountain - this too seems natural advice to give to the youth. After a hectic and frantic period of activity it is wise to counsel the youth to slow down, to seek quiet, to reflect on what has happened. In doing this we can look back and see our progress. We can give ourselves credit for the work we have done before going on to tackle the tasks that remain ahead of us. This is how strength is attained. First by recognizing you have attained it, then by resting for the journey ahead. The rest allows acquired strength to temper and gain resilience, much like metal which has been heat treated for added strength. It must cool before the final strength can be realized.

The oracle of Keeping Still, Mountain, describes this in a special way for our cohort. It sees us as individuals who are beginning to bond like tempered steel. Our egos are being subsumed into the whole of our group so that we become stronger together than we can be apart. It points out our development, and understanding, of how to move and how to stop. The harmony of our movement being in accord with our group rhythm.

Finally, the oracle closes as if to refresh and encourage us for the next leg of our journey in the coming month. It counsels us to trust ourselves and consider only the moment we find ourselves in. It asks we not consider the future before it comes and to know we have developed the capacity to deal with whatever comes our way.

October Conclusions

The predictions made prior to the module will now be examined one by one against the events of the October module and an assessment made as to how accurate the oracle was in its predictions.

As will be seen, and as mentioned in the interpretation of meaning of the post-module oracle, this month’s predictions seem to be amazingly accurate. This is a surprise because I remember while making the predictions it felt like I was going way out on a limb with some of them. Predictions #1 and #3 come especially to mind. As I recorded these two predictions I recall thinking they felt very much like wishful thinking with very little chance of coming true. Now that I’ve seen the results of these it is a little hard to put into words how I’m feeling. The image that comes to mind is that of The Twilight Zone. I can almost hear Rod Sterling: "Submitted for your consideration…"

In the predictions that now follow the tally stands at:

Six accurate predictions
One inaccurate prediction

Prediction: We will take our first real steps toward creating a group learning vision that we can all agree to and help each other to succeed in.

On Sunday afternoon Joe hosted an Open Space session aimed at creating a shared vision for out cohort. He successfully outlined a process which the cohort agreed to follow toward creating a shared vision we would work toward. The approach was innovative and perhaps another of those break-throughs we’re seeing so regularly these days. Instead of working to make common our cohort learning objectives, Joe is proposing we use our learning experience in an applied fashion. He has proposed we create a program that would sustain itself and become a part of the Antioch community after we have graduated. To do this we will be working on how to create a community involvement program within the context of the GMP experience.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: We will recognize our capacity to understand the concepts of strategy, structure and systems within the experiences we have had in our workplaces.

During the presentation by the guest instructor from the Port of Seattle the main concern of Laura and the cohort was that we had already covered the ground being presented. We wanted to go beyond what we already knew to higher challenges involved around reorganizations. The conversation we had after the presentation brought into clear light that we felt we’d developed a large capacity for strategic thinking. The presentation, at the level it was made, allowed us to see and recognize the existence of this capacity and our desire to bring our experience to bear on the learning environment.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: Some of our cohort will emerge as the real teachers during the faculty led sessions and they will provide the real lessons of our learning.

I found myself in this role during the Sunday afternoon conversation about establishing a designated process observer (DPO) for our November module. I was able to relate my experience in an executive university training program I’d attended in 1995. In this program I had learned and experienced first hand the learning one can achieve by playing the role of process observer in a group. I also believe Laura acted in the role of teacher when she brought up her discontent with the Saturday lecture. During the Open Space people began to assert the knowledge they had from other experiences in the manner of a teacher with valuable experience to share. Finally, during our group conversations there were many times when people would speak out from their experience with a expectation that they would be heard as credible and unchallenged of the knowledge they were presenting for our consideration.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: The order established through the norms we developed at Seabeck will keep us on track during difficult times that arise throughout the weekend.

The agreements negotiated at Seabeck were referred to on several occasions and did help us move through situations that have stymied us in the past. I mentioned the incident with Laura where our agreement to stick to our planned agenda was used to get us back on track. This conversation led on Sunday to the formalization of the DPO - another of our agreements from Seabeck - as a means of assisting us if we found ourselves in another fruitless activity. We also used the agreements to re-negotiate our agenda on Sunday afternoon when we found we had overrun time in the morning. We had two rounds of this agenda re-negotiation, something that has taken us hours to do even once in the past.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: We will listen and believe what we hear from others without having to prove we have a better answer.

We seemed far better at listening and accepting information as valid and credible when the members of our cohort spoke this weekend. Many people spoke up to support Laura when she voiced her concerns. There was lots of supportive dialogue as we spoke about the DPO decision. Joe was able to present a draft plan for vision creation. Four of our members felt comfortable volunteering to be on a panel of experts for our November module.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: We will address our group issue of exclusion and safety as embodied in Sharon and Roger pairing in exclusion from the group.

This did not happen during the weekend. I was associating this prediction to the Judgment of Break-through on page 61, equating this situation with the evil influences that the I Ching referred to in this section. While this prediction did not come true there were other situations where it could be said we were taking steps to "…purge the evil influences hindering our group development." So perhaps the fault here lies in the skill of the interpreter more than the power of the I Ching to predict

I do not believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: We will acknowledge and give credit as we see our leaders emerge.

Laura’s work was acknowledged and appreciated. Joe’s work was acknowledged and appreciated. The leaders of the Open Space sessions were uniformly applauded. There was general agreement that the four entrepreneurs in our cohort were credible to sit on a panel and provide us meaningful learning.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Preliminary Observations on Applying the Oracle Method

It almost goes without saying by now that I find notable relevance in the post-module oracle received this month. Everything that was said last month about the immaturity of our group and the need to seek a teacher, of course, remains true for us. How could it be otherwise at so early a development stage. We may be in the process of discovering our internal strength, but we are early in the maturity process. That the oracle would repeat itself with the observation of Youthful Folly to validate this is eerie. As I said, the image of being in The Twilight Zone plays tantalizingly in my head.

I see particular relevance in how the oracle is acting as a teacher, as I look to discover if it can be a teacher in a business setting. It’s as if the oracle is doing everything possible to make it easy for me to see that its power is real and there to be tapped.

My thoughts are drawn to the Preface of this paper when I mentioned the oddity of describing the I Ching in anthropomorphic terms. Now it seems only natural since the oracle seems to speak and to counsel in what seems a most human way.

The new metaphor of a man seeking a quiet heart is also very much in tune with where the cohort seems to be. Our conversations are taking on a much more subdued flavor. We are listening more intently, we are looking for true intent instead of jumping to conclusions. As we question for clarification we are discovering how easy it is for us to be together. There are still some rough spots, as would be expected of the youth, but we seem over the crest and on the down hill side.

When the oracle describes us as melding together, with our egos being subsumed for the good of the greater whole, it opens up for rich examination the progress we have made in our time together since last year. One can imagine the conflicts and dissonance we experienced last year as being a blast furnace refining the raw ore of our character into the fine steel needed for sharp blades that hold their edge forever.

The way the oracle chose to close this month also hold significance for me. It asks us to trust ourselves and live in the moment, confident we can succeed over time. At times like this it so easy to look ahead and wonder if the success of the past can be sustained and repeated. One can easily look at all that has been achieved and think it may have been by luck as much as by hard work. Then, in looking forward at the challenges ahead one could wonder if the luck will hold out. The oracle advises us differently. "You did it!" it says, "Trust in what you’ve attained. Live now and let the future take care of itself. What you have learned will carry you through then too!"

As I sit back to reflect on the question of this section - Does the post-module oracle have relevance in explaining the meanings of our just past weekend module? - I can only answer with an emphatic YES! The relevance takes my breath away with its clarity and I find myself ever more excited. Excited to see the oracles next month. Excited to see the conclusions I may draw after the study period. Excited to think of the possibilities that may unfold in coming years as I refine my use of a tool which is beginning to take on rock solid credibility with every passing moment!

Given what seems a rather awesome display of the power resident in the I Ching to predict and explain meanings I find it difficult this month to resist delving more deeply into the business applications that seem to be emerging through this project to-date. This would, however, be pre-mature and run counter to the plan we set in place in Chapter 3 when we outlined the study period. Rather, I will simply set out the applications which add themselves to my consciousness after this month’s experience. When we arrive at Chapter 7, and explore in depth the possible applications of the I Ching oracle in a business setting, these potential applications together with those recorded in September and to be recorded in November will be more fully developed.

Three themes emerge for further examination after the study period:

The oracle as a strategy development tool.
The use of the oracle to examine whole systems phenomenon in groups.
A possible empirical argument for the validity of the I Ching method.

One area of this month’s content readings was focused around the development of strategy in mature organizations. Many of the techniques that strategy development require seem very naturally suited to employing the I Ching oracle (if it can be shown to be a valid inquiry method). Strategy requires the ability to consider the many parts of systems as a whole and to apply intuitive thinking to putting ambiguous data into a coherent picture. It requires the ability to see relationships and patterns. It involves managing contradictory organization structures and managing the process of seeing emerging patterns from the independent actions in dichotomous areas of the business. Finally, it requires the ability to understand there is no right answer, only the process of learning about the many possible answers. All of these areas can be enlightened by the I Ching method of inquiry and are in concert with the basic premise of connectedness that gives the I Ching its power.

The second area of application above stems from what I am observing in the reflective writing of those class members who are sharing their monthly reflective essays, and also my reflective essays from last year. As I compare these essays with those written with the assistance of the I Ching I notice a much stronger "we" flavor in the writing now done through the I Ching oracle. It is as if by using the I Ching oracle to reflect on our group events I am more able to see events from a whole perspective. My cohorts and I have written from an "I" perspective up to this time. The "we" perspective seems more powerful and also could be useful as business tool if it provides legitimate insights into what’s happening in the groups we work with every day.

Finally, it could be interesting to explore the statistical probability of the recurrence of the I Ching oracles as has been demonstrated in these past three months. If the recurrences are greater than would be predicted by random occurrence we may be at least a partial step toward empirical validation of the I Ching oracle as required by the Western scientific method.

Chapter 6 November - The Social Order
Pre-module Oracle and Predictions

The Oracle - November 3,1997

This month completes the study period of this project. Our cohort will be together from Friday, November 7, to Sunday, November 9 for its regular weekend module, continuing the theme of Strategy, Structure and Systems, with an emphasis on the Entrepreneurial context.

These background events since our last module are in mind as I prepare to hear the predictions of the oracle for the last time in regard to this project:

There has been an inordinate amount of time (5 weeks) since last we met.
A proposal to open our online folder to the GMP 99 cohort resulted in a heated debate about how we vote for these types of things online. The initial call for vote got a silent response until a call was made to open the folder. Then a loud flurry of responses came out saying that the silence had not been an agreement. Out of the dialogue an alternative proposal developed which is being implemented after a consensus developed online. A major break-though, our first use of the online to handle heated emotion and to create something new without the need for face-to-face community time.
Other voting issues also came up in our online dialogue this month: The vision development led be Joe, idea building around Collaborative Design Modules, should we do our June 98 final module at Seabeck, could we arrange to re-watch Mindwalk with the GMP 99 cohort. For the most part each of these opportunities is being handled without the accompanying emotion we experienced last year.
The study group led by Barbara and Laura has met weekly and is becoming an established event. Participation has been low so far, but a number of different people are taking advantage of the opportunity with reported success.
An online dialogue on the difference between a caring community and a learning community was begun. The direction is toward a desire to become more of a learning community and allow caring to take its place without being the dominate determinate of group action.
The content folders once again show a dramatic lack of interest in relation to the process folders in our online dialogues.
We begin the new hours agreed to last month, Friday and Saturday from 8 AM to 6 PM and Sunday from 8 AM to 12 PM.
We will have two guest speakers and have been asked to give input on what we would like to have emphasized in their presentations. This is a response to the disappointing experience we had with our guest last month. The dialogue has been slow to develop and few people have participated.
This will be our first weekend using process observers. I wonder how the people acting in this role will participate and use the opportunity.
I have found a mathematician to help me with the frequency of I Ching oracle recurrences that were discovered with the October oracle readings. In preparing for this work I now know I was mistaken about the recurring oracles being a new phenomenon. What I discovered in going back to readings since 1990 is that this pattern of recurring oracles is the norm when the oracle is questioned over short periods of time. This intrigues me even more, because one would expect to see random occurrences of all 64 oracles over time, yet what actually occurs is a pattern of repeating oracles, as if associated with the time and circumstances of the asking.
One personal event weighs heavily. When I made the proposal to open our folder to the GMP 99 cohort I was openly and publicly attacked by Roger. I sent him a private email asking his motivation, hoping to open up a more subdued dialogue. His response to me was another series of hostile and inflammatory attacks on my character and motives. It was impossible to answer his attacks without escalating the emotion so I replied that I thought it best we agree to not communicate with each other for the remainder of our time together. I also let him know, however, that I would defend myself if he chose to continue his public attacks on me.

What can I expect to see happening in our coming weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

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As usual, I made some notes prior to looking up the oracle. I also noted that the hexagram that results from the changing lines is known to me. It is nourishment the picture of an open mouth. I wrote:

Fire burns under/on Earth rising to the sinking mother Earth. The mother and middle daughter give way to the youngest and oldest sons to form an open mouth, providing nourishment.

Ming I Darkening of the Light

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The introductory notes make reference to a man of dark nature, who in opposition of authority brings harm to the wise and able man. The sun has sunk under the earth.

As I began this interpretation toward predictions these words brought to mind the lines of the October oracle of Youthful Folly where I wondered if the oracle was referencing my relationship with Roger. I asked in my notes: "Roger and me again? It’s going to come to a head this month!" As I proceeded this message seemed to leap from the pages and I couldn’t hide from it. This month’s pre-module oracle is not about the group. It is about me, in relation to Roger, in this group! Read on…

The Judgment

Darkening of the Light. In adversity

It furthers one to be persevering.

One must not be swept along by unfavorable circumstances. Stay steadfast, maintain inner light, remain outwardly yielding, tractable. Inward perseverance, outward calm, will maintain in the face of difficulties.

As I noted before the oracle, I had a rather heated run in with Roger this month. Though we agreed not to communicate I wondered whether he would be able to resist his attacks against me. Here the oracle seems to say the attacks will come and gives advice as to the proper way to handle the attacks: persevere inwardly, maintain an outer calm.

The Image

The light has sunk into the earth:

The image of Darkening of the Light.

Thus does the superior man live with the great mass:

He veils his light, yet still shines.

Practice calm and reserve. No inconsiderate behavior. Act not like others and show not their behavior to the light. Let many things pass, without being duped.

The oracle continues its advice. I am cautioned not to behave toward Roger as he does toward me. Further, I am cautioned not to point out his behavior to others. Rather I am counseled to ignore most of his behavior and know it for myself alone.

As we now move onto the changing lines I want to take a moment to talk about changing lines in relation to the hexagram to which they belong.

As should be obvious the hexagram texts are always the same whenever one receives any given hexagram. Sometimes the hexagram has only unchanging lines and then the judgment and the image are read to provide insight to a situation. In these cases the oracle is informing us of a stable situation. One which doesn’t have a lot of volatility.

When the lines change this is not the case. Rather what the oracle says in these times is: "It is this way now, it will be another way soon, or there is more information to consider." For this reason, when reading the lines, one must give special attention because they are the instrument though which the next hexagram, and the more information appears.

I mention this before moving to the readings of the lines because they hit too powerful to imagine in relationship to my current interpretation of this oracle pair.

The Lines

Nine in third place means:

Darkening of the light during the hunt in the south.

Their great leader is captured.

One must not expect perseverance too soon.

Chance is at work. A strong, loyal man strives eagerly and in good faith to create order. He meets the ringleader of disorder, as if by accident, and seizes him. Victory is achieved. But be not too hasty in abolishing abuses. That could turn out badly because the abuses have been in existence so long.

My work in creating a shared folder with GMP 99 is described. Some confrontation with Roger on this activity will cause him to be discredited and allow me to be free of his abuse. I am again counseled to not be too quick to seek a resolution to this condition. What has taken so long to develop must dissolve of its own merit.

Six at the top means:

Not light but darkness.

First he climbed up to heaven,

Then he plunged into the depths of the earth.

Climax of the darkening is reached. The dark power, at first so high it could wound all on the side of good and light, now perishes in its own darkness.

The oracle describes the end of the process. Roger falls of his own actions. I need only stand by and let the nature of things proceed as they will…

…and then will come.

I The Corners of the Mouth (Providing Nourishment)

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The introductory notes describe an open mouth. The two solid lines, top and bottom, form the firm lips, between is the opening of the mouth, providing for both the nourishment of the self and the care of others in a spiritual sense.

With the passing of the darkness one must turn to healing and sustenance. The individual must be cared for and the group too.

The Judgment

The Corners of the Mouth.

Perseverance brings good fortune.

Pay heed to the providing of nourishment

And to what a man seeks

To fill his own mouth with.

Important. Bestow care and nourishment on the superior people, in order to care for all through them.

Here’s how to bring about healing. Work through those who support me. They can be the vehicle for rebuilding and bridging the gaps that will be left over from the period of darkness.

The Image

At the foot of the mountain, thunder:

The image of Providing Nourishment.

Thus the superior man is careful of his words

And temperate in eating and drinking.

"God comes forth in the sign of the Arousing…He brings perfection in the sign of Keeping Still". An image of providing nourishment through movement and tranquillity: Words, food and drink modified by tranquillity. Tranquillity keeps words and food from exceeding proper measure. Thus character is developed.

With the resolution of hostilities between me and Roger come calm and tranquillity. Now we can move on to become the learning community the cohort so desires.

The Predictions

This month’s predictions are two: One about me and Roger, the other of the outcome to our community. While very simple, these predictions seem as hard to imagine as those of last month. It will be interesting to see if they play out with the same power and clarity as has been the case so far.

The hostilities that have been present between me and Roger since our Seabeck retreat in September of 1996 will be brought to a head and resolved.
The cohort will agree to and begin to work toward what we will define as what we want our learning community to become.

Post-module Oracle and Interpretation of Meaning

The Oracle - November 10, 1997

The November module of GMP 98 met from Friday, November 7 to Sunday, October 9 on its normal weekend schedule, which included day classes with evenings at home. I will again use a narrative style to records the events of the weekend prior to inquiring of the oracle for the last time in this study period.

On Thursday night I re-read the copy of the predictions from the previous section which I had printed for reference during the weekend. I made some notes in the margin to remind me of the advice the oracle had given as I entered the weekend:

Persevere inwardly
Outward calm
Be only considerate
Ignore inconsiderate behavior
Know the truth (don’t be duped)
BE PATIENT!! LET THINGS DEVELOP ON THEIR OWN

I wondered at the predictions and whether and how this advice would be applied. As it happened the advice was exactly what was needed in the circumstances I was to find myself in the very next day.

Friday morning was a very tense affair. The cohort began to assemble at about 7:30 AM. The traffic was very bad this morning because of rain and accidents and it was obvious we would get a late start. My notes make the following observations:

Tense no talk. Nervous laughter. No leadership from faculty.
Gary alone (as faculty): "8:15 begin check-in?"
No food. Dan: "I seem to vaguely recall someone said they would coordinate food?" (It was Roger, tried twice, not made it sustainable)
Roger: "What about the survey results?"

Does he think it will aim at me?
Does he think it will solve his problems in this group?

During this time I asked Dick to help me post flip chart pages I had made of our agreements from Seabeck in September. This event would come up later during our community time. We began check-in at 8:25, only after Don had arrived, and without the full cohort.

Check-in proceeded with little out of the ordinary. On my turn, because Barbara had been one of the late arrivers, I felt the urge to stand and hug her in the center of the circle. I had been feeling like doing this all the week leading up to this module as I felt so good about the work she and I had accomplished in working toward the shared folder in FirstClass with the GMP 99 cohort. This event, too, would come up again when we entered into community time.

Community time began with a review of the survey data. We were joined by Peter and RoseAnn who would act as our facilitators. The survey had of necessity been scrubbed of references that could identify individuals in order to preserve the promise of anonymity. This proved quite frustrating in the conversation because the data obviously pointed at individual personality problems - which everybody knew existed - and which could not be voiced because of the fear of personal confrontation. I finally named the problem:

The cohort’s difficulty with me AND the cohort’s difficulty with Roger and Sharon pairing AND the conflict that Roger, Sharon and I were carrying into the cohort. I went on to say I felt the cohort wanted the conflict dealt with openly and for the three of us to stop engaging in behavior toward each other that was tearing the group apart.

I asked for acknowledgment as to whether this was the problem and found universal agreement. Peter then asked if we wanted to deal with this problem by having some conversations between people who were identified with the problem. We agreed, took a break and convened in an open circle.

The first conversation was between Roger and Barbara. During the discussion of the survey Roger had said he didn’t trust her because of his experience with her before and after a study group he had attended. In conversation with her at the study group, she had said she was very frustrated with me online. Then the very next day, he said, she seemed to completely contradict herself by complimenting and sending me online <hugs> (and then the in person hug above!) for the online conversation we were engaging in. Peter used this observation on Roger’s part to facilitate a conversation of "inquiry into intent" between the Roger and Barbara with the two of them in the center of our circle.

Barbara explained that for her what had occurred was learning. She had been convinced, by the process of creating the shared folder, that what she and I had engaged in online had been constructive. At the time Roger had spoken with her at her home she had felt differently. She also intimated that perhaps Roger had taken her comments as more against me than she had actually spoken. Roger did not seem convinced, and admitted and was supported by others, that he felt Barbara was not being honest about how she felt about me. During this conversation both Peter and Don kept asking Roger what was fueling his underlying feelings toward Barbara. Don finally gave voice to what he believed:

"I think you dislike Tony intensely. You go looking for allies to join you in this dislike. When you found one in Barbara and then she seemed to abandon you this caused you to mistrust her honesty and integrity."

A dam burst from there. Roger described conversations with Sharon where she had counseled him that he was not doing any good to himself by working to "get people on his side" (in his anger against me). Several people from the sidelines began to join the conversation as interveners to validate and assist Roger in understanding what this behavior was doing to our cohort and to him. During the course of this inquiry period Keith made a comment loaded with inference about the behavior Sharon was displaying in the group. We were nearing lunch by this time and Peter said that Keith’s comment could make another good conversation to continue our group discovery. Peter asked if we wanted to continue after lunch, which we agreed to, and broke up for the morning.

After lunch we returned and RoseAnn provided material on behaviors that can stop or encourage communications as an assist to the afternoon conversations. When we re-convened our circle Sharon was not willing to participate with Keith in a conversation. Claire and I were chosen as an alternate around the question of her feelings when I had posted the agreed behaviors earlier in the morning. She had felt badly toward me because she felt like "once again Tony was taking action without consulting the cohort". She was confused about her feelings because she agreed with the action and felt it to be positive, yet still felt badly toward me.

We engaged in this conversation for a time and then the "accident" of the oracle occurred. Roger spoke up about what I was saying and wanted to ask me a question. Up to this point I had not spoken directly to Roger, nor he to me, in consideration of our pre-module agreement. I asked him directly if he was now giving permission for the two of us to communicate and in so doing we disclosed to the entire cohort our agreement not to speak to each other. With a collective gasp the room exploded in the revelation of this agreement. Peter seized on the moment and brought Roger into the circle to have a conversation with me.

We spoke to each other for almost an hour. With Peter asking Roger to re-phrase nearly every statement made - from attack to inquiry - as I mostly listened to Roger and to Peter and to the room. The advice of the oracle danced through my head, I was in a state of joy and utter peace, as I watched the events foretold of between Roger and me play out before my eyes.

In both the morning and the afternoon conversations much came out about me and Roger from the cohort. Many of the hidden conversations that had been spoken only in hallways and in private were voiced in public for the first time. Roger and I both heard the story of what this fight between the two of us had been doing to the cohort.

Then it was over. Nothing resolved between Roger and me, perhaps? But the conflict named and the beast revealed. The first step toward healing. And later, on Sunday during a bathroom break, we even shared a few brief words on the topic of the morning. Not easy conversation, not free conversation, but conversation and maybe another step. We’ll have to see.

For the Saturday and Sunday that constituted our content sessions, we learned together as a cohort. In past modules it seemed there had always been some sort of blow up, not this weekend. I was especially impressed that the panel discussion on entrepreneurship - with a panel composed of our cohort members - was one of our best sessions of the weekend.

During the harvest and feedback on how we felt about our weekend, without prompting, Jill made the statement that she felt like the tenor of the group was much different and better than she had experienced in the past. Dan made a statement along the same lines and I had to ask!

"Dan," I said, "Do you feel we’ve begun to take steps toward deciding collectively to become a learning community, whatever that may be?" And he answered: "Yes." With the collective agreement of the entire room. The second oracle prediction complete!

What were the meanings in the events of our just past weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

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My notes before looking up the oracle. I don’t know either the first hexagram or its change by sight. Their components suggest:

Father and mother enjoy their youngest daughter. Joy joins with Heaven and Earth.

Lu Treading [Conduct]

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The right way to conduct oneself. Father above, youngest daughter below shows the difference between high and low, upon which composure, correct social conduct, depends. Also, treading upon something. The small and weak treads on the large and strong, not dangerous because it happens in good humor and without presumption.

As with the pre-module oracle, the post-module oracle seems directed to me also. The oracle seems to be commenting on what occurred between me and the cohort in respect to how my conduct was and what to expect. It places me high and strong in relation to the cohort and describes our interaction and conduct. I had difficulty as I read this because of the position it would presume for me if this is true. What then followed seemed to read my mind, as if to provide reassurance.

The Judgment

Treading. Treading upon the tail of the tiger.

It does not bite the man. Success.

One is handling wild, intractable people. Achieve purpose by acting with decorum. Pleasant manner succeeds even with irritable people.

I have to keep reminding myself these are not my words. These are the words written in black and white in the pages of the I Ching! While I wouldn’t use this language to describe our cohort, the feel and tenor is so accurate as to be frightening. And the approach suggested is exactly in keeping with the pre-module advice and how I worked to conduct myself this past weekend.

The Image

Heaven above, the lake below:

The image of Treading.

Thus the superior man discriminates between high and low,

And thereby fortifies the thinking of the people.

It is impossible to bring about universal equality. Differences in social rank must not be arbitrary or unjust, otherwise, envy and class struggle result. Align differences in rank with inner worth, then people will acquiesce and order will reign in society.

The oracle suggests the events of the weekend have resulted in a class rank and status for each of our members, distinguished by the behaviors we each have been exhibiting.

The Lines

Nine in fourth place means:

He treads on the tail of the tiger.

Caution and circumspection

Lead ultimately to good fortune.

A dangerous enterprise. Inner power okay, external cautious attitude causes hesitation. One is sure of ultimate success, overcome danger by going forward.

The oracle sensed my concern from above describing me as high and strong in relation to the cohort. This is a dangerous proposition indeed! My hesitation is noted and an assurance of ultimate success. In what? I can only imagine it must be describing the coming together of the cohort as a learning community which has been my work and intent all along.

Nine in fifth place means:

* Resolute conduct.

Perseverance with awareness of danger.

The asterisk means this line is the ruler of the hexagram and has special importance when it appears as a changing line. Be resolute in conduct. Also, be conscious of the danger of resolute behavior that perseveres. Awareness of danger makes success possible.

Again my fears from above are addressed. I’m advised that being aware of the danger is what is necessary to avoid the pitfalls of the position I’m placed in.

Nine at the top means:

Look to your conduct and weigh the favorable signs.

When everything is fulfilled, supreme good fortune comes.

The work is ended. Will good fortune follow? Look back on conduct and its consequences. Good? Then good fortune is certain. No one knows himself, only by the fruit of his labor can a man judge what to expect.

The first sentence describes exactly how I feel. After this last module I walked away feeling as if I’d completed the work I could in assisting the cohort toward becoming a learning community. I felt like it was time for me to step back and watch as things now develop on their own. The oracle agrees and says my good fortune is dependent on how I went about this work. If my conduct, and the consequence of my conduct, was good I’ll be okay.

Lin Approach

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Lin has three meanings of approach: 1) Becoming great, two strong lines growing into the hexagram from below. 2) Approach of the strong and highly placed to what is lower. 3) Attitude of the man in a high position working with the people. Setting to work on affairs as the light begins to ascend again.

The hexagram of Treading has changed to another which describes a person in high relationship to a group. It’s as if I am not allowed to escape some destiny set before me in this experience with the cohort of GMP 98!

The Judgment

Approach has supreme success.

Perseverance furthers.

When the eighth month comes,

There will be misfortune.

A time of joyous, hopeful progress. Success is certain. Make use of the time by working with determination and perseverance. Take heed of the change that must come after the good times. Meet evil before it becomes a reality and it can be mastered.

We see the work of developing the cohort as a learning community . Progress and success are certain, we need only continue with diligence, now, while the time is right. If we do our work well we’ll be able to meet the next dark period, which always comes sooner or later, with the strength of our past success.

The Image

The earth above the lake:

The image of Approach.

Thus the superior man is inexhaustible

In his will to teach,

And without limits

In his tolerance and protection of the people.

The sage is inexhaustible in his readiness to teach mankind. He sustains and cares for all, excluding no part of humanity.

The oracle ends where it began, with me is a position I did not choose. Now what do I do?

Outcome of the Predictions

The interpretation of meaning this month is rather interesting I think. Having been struck by the personal nature of the pre-module oracle, then seeing the predictions from this oracle play out so dramatically during the weekend, I suppose it is not unusual that the oracle would come back with a personal interpretation of the past weekends events.

But read that last paragraph again. Read the way I wrote in the pre-module and the post-module oracle sections. Where did this dialogue come from between me and the I Ching? As I was writing I kept referring to the oracle as a physical being, something with substance, with a tangible presence.

Why? I suppose its because I’ve probably always felt that way? Refer back to the Preface of this paper. Even there I intimated at the anthropomorphic dimension of experience with the I Ching oracle. When it came out with advice on how to behave entering the weekend and when this advice proved so valuable it became very difficult not to believe I was in conversation with some physical entity. I’ve certainly received worse advice from people before, why not feel good about something that provided such useful preparation for events that could have otherwise proven much more difficult.

The simple interpretation of this oracle is that the meaning of the past weekend was of a cohort establishing its social order. The not so simple interpretation has to do with where the oracle places me in the order…

…at the top.

Is this true? Do I simply want it to be true and read this interpretation into the oracle? Even if it is true, what of it? This is a group of learners, together until June of next year. Why do we even need a social order…or a top?

The oracle explains, then provides again, all the right advice and counsel. It says that every group of people requires a social order. If we look back at the questions of this cohort as described in our history up to the study period we can even see this. Our fight for authority, for norms, for someone to decide process vs content. This was all a struggle for someone to set an order. For someone to say: "This is how it is." Now, with the past three months we’ve done that. We set some rules, we authorized ourselves, we have combined process with content and moved beyond the debate.

So the order was needed and the oracle describes the why. But why me at the top? I have been a driving force behind this order creation, but in many ways I have been ineffective, causing a fair degree of turmoil along the way. Yet, in the end, after the social order is in place was that okay? I do feel at peace with the cohort. They do seem to accept me much more and recognize more what I’ve been doing and why.

So I guess I’ll just go on. Wait, see. Follow the advice of the post-module oracle.

Accept the position in good humor, don’t make too much of it!
Keep pleasant manners.
Accept the differences in the rank of everybody, based upon inner worth.
Overcome danger by going forward.
Be resolute, and aware of the danger of resolute action, being aware of the danger brings success.

Pretty good advice if received from anyone. Who do you suppose is giving it now?

Wu wei provides one possibility in Chapter 1 on page 21:

November Conclusions

The predictions made prior to the module will now be examined one by one against the events of the November module and an assessment made as to how accurate the oracle was in its predictions.

Once again we find the oracle to have been quite accurate in its predictions as I suggest this month tally to be:

Two accurate predictions
No inaccurate predictions

Prediction: The hostilities that have been present between me and Roger since our Seabeck retreat in September of 1996 will be brought to a head and resolved.

Roger and I were placed into a conversation. It even happened in an accidental way as foretold in the changing lines of the pre-module oracle. By bringing this conversation into the open the conflict was brought to a head. It is not complete, but by being in the open the resolution is evident.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Prediction: The cohort will agree to and begin to work toward what we will define as what we want our learning community to become.

I asked this question directly of the cohort through Dan on the final day. I asked it after Jill intimated it without prompting.

I believe this prediction was accurate.

Preliminary Observations on Applying the Oracle Method

This closing oracle to the study period seems strikingly significant when considered with the other oracles that have visited with us to this point.

After playing the teacher for the first two month the oracle now closes with its work complete. Rather than continue with lessons of the cohort it provides insight into the social order that has been created. In knowing the social order we can now go on without the future guidance of our friend and sage. Like the old story, the oracle has taught us to fish, and given us the tools to guide our own development as we proceed from here.

Beyond this significance is a deeper significance for me personally. I’ve been convinced of the power of this tool. As I now move on to Chapter 7 and an examination of applications for this tool, I for one, know I will make use of the oracle with much more conviction in the future. Will others? It doesn’t matter does it. If they do, the positive virtue of the I Ching will pervade the globe. If they don’t, that will be my competitive advantage. I will go from situation to situation secure in the knowledge of what is to come, how to be, and what the meaning of what I see really is!

One new possible application seems to have presented itself with this month’s oracle set. It seems possible that the oracle can also be used to receive insight and advice when we are presented with a difficult situation or set of events.

In both the pre-module and the post-module oracles it was very apparent that there was a set of advice that was being presented to me as the reader. That the pre-module advice turned out to be so appropriate to the weekend would seem to lend credibility to the advice of the post-module oracle.

Beyond advice though, is the question of how one would employ the tool. Up to this point, while advice was always evident, it wasn’t the dominant message of the oracle. So as we explore applications it may be necessary to develop a rational for accepting the oracle in the form it presents itself. That is to say, if we seek help on strategy development as suggested from possible application in October, we may receive advice on how to develop strategy, instead of a strategy per se. We may need to develop our applications of the oracle in a way that allows us to accept the answers in the way presented without insisting on the answer we expected to receive when we set out.

Results of Pre-Module Oracles

Chapter 7 Predictive and Interpretive Value of the I Ching

We now enter the final leg of our journey, at least as defined by the confines of this project. Where have we been? What have we seen? What can we expect as we close out this paper?

We began in Chapter 1 by outlining what has formed the main work of this paper. A project which studied the interactions of a group of professionals with the assistance of the I Ching oracle. We then studied the I Ching oracle itself through the words of a published author in the subject. Finally, in considering the implications of the oracle a number of outcomes were guessed at that could possibly result from our project:

Would the oracle prove useful as an intuitive tool to predict and explain meaning in everyday events?
Would a systematic use of the oracle enhance the ability of a Western mind to more effectively work with the Eastern society it will be more and more engaged with in the coming century?
Will we be able to extrapolate from the project a set of applications for the oracle which could have general use and benefit in the Western business model?

Of these questions, the first and last appear to have been answered in the affirmative by this project. The second question may be answered in the same way by virtue of the systematic application of this paper in others settings. That, of course, remains to be seen.

To begin to set the stage for acceptance of the I Ching as a legitimate tool, in Chapter 2, we did a quick review of Western scientific literature which approximate the ideas of the I Ching oracle. We examined the realms of quantum physics where paradox seems to be the only truth governing the universe. We looked at the phenomena of synchronicity and discovered an acausal connective tissue that seems to link unrelated events in time in meaningful ways. In the review of the psychological notion of the collective unconscious we found what seems to be a universal mind which connects all mankind through archetypes which repeat across culture and time. Finally in the fields of creativity and systems theory we find the idea of all being connected to all to form a whole that can be discovered from any starting place.

In these ideas the parallels to the I Ching notion of connectedness, of random order creating meaning and understanding of present and future events, were offered as the basis of at least entertaining the possibility of the I Ching as a legitimate tool as we undertook the project this paper chronicled.

Chapter 3 provided the detail context of our project. The logistics of the oracle readings and the group we would be studying were outlined. We introduced the questions we would ask of the oracle and how we would assure uniformity during the study period. Through a brief history of the cohort and short personal sketches we were introduced to the cast of players we would be seeing in the chapters to come.

We closed Chapter 3 with a question of validity. One which seems even more relevant now, considering the outcome of the oracle in November. The question of how a valid project of this nature can be designed when the conductor of the project is himself a part of the project. We offered no answer to this question except to say that the I Ching would challenger the possibility of an unconnected observer in any project. We also recalled the parallel to quantum physics, that what one observes is actually a creation of the observer and depends on the observer’s frame of mind.

Finally in Chapters 4 - 6 we conducted the study period. We watched as the I Ching oracle first acted as teacher to our cohort and then ended with advice which could sustain the cohort in the absence of further readings. Through this journey we noted what seemed a change in the relationship of the oracle to the audience. The oracle seemed to change from written words in a book to a conversation between the reader and itself, as if it had taken on a character and a being of its own. In this process we discovered meaningful insights into the workings of our cohort, together with beneficial advice for our group and personal development. We were also presented with a number of potential applications which will be more fully explored in this closing chapter and a curious recurrence of oracles which suggested the need for further analysis.

In Chapter 7 we will consolidate the experience of the study period results. From this experience we will then suggest applications and means of using the I Ching oracle as a business tool. We will divide this examination into three sections.

First we will look at the study period itself. We will summarize the results of the pre-module oracle and post-module oracles. Then we will outline four arguments - from statistics, probability, cryptography and psychology - that suggest validity of the oracle method.

The final area of examination will be a discussion of the five business applications which came out of the study period:

Oracle as a random entry device for stimulating creativity
Oracle as a reflective tool for personal growth and development
Oracle as a strategy development tool
Oracle as a tool to examine whole systems phenomena in groups
Oracle as a source of insight and advice in difficult situations

We will then end this paper and project with concluding remarks. But as noted in the Preface, we will not really end, we will simply move on to the next discovery that waits beyond the confines of this project.

The Study Period

This section summarizes the results of the pre-module portion of the study period. Observations of both the pre-module study period and the post-module study period will be made together, after each is summarized in this and the following section.

During the pre-module portion of the study period we asked the question: "What can I expect to see happening in our coming weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?" This question was asked before the GMP retreat module of September 1997 and then before the two weekend modules in October and November.

After asking the question, the oracle was recorded and interpreted. The interpretation was used as the basis for making predictions of what would happen when the cohort came together for its weekend modules. These results were then recorded and the predictions observed for when the cohort came together.

Detail of the study period methodology and background on the cohort can be found in Chapter 3.

Detail of the pre-module oracle readings which led to the predictions summarized in this section can be found in Chapters 4 - 6, sections titled: "The Oracle - Date of oracle for the pre-module".

Detail of the predictions summarized in this section can be found in Chapters 4 - 6, sections titled: "The Predictions" and "Outcome of the Predictions".

The following eighteen predictions were made during the pre-module study period:

September

We will begin with an initial tension around our unresolved questions from last year.
There will be some people who will be very focused on the negative aspects of how our cohort is developing.
We will take resolute action to dispel the negative influences in our cohort.
As we achieve our break-through some people will attempt to use their new influence without considering others.
We will observe many periods of obstinate holding to positions.
Our break-through will be achieved and result in peace and harmony among ourselves.
We will be challenged to maintain our break-through.
We will authorize our cohort as a peer authority for content creation in the program.
Our peer authority relationship will be challenged by the faculty and we will need to work to maintain it.

October

We will take our first real steps toward creating a group learning vision that we can all agree to and help each other to succeed in.
We will recognize our capacity to understand the concepts of strategy, structure and systems within the experiences we have had in our workplaces.
Some of our cohort will emerge as the real teachers during the faculty led sessions and they will provide the real lessons of our learning.
The order established through the norms we developed at Seabeck will keep us on track during difficult times that arise throughout the weekend.
We will listen and believe what we hear from others without having to prove we have a better answer.
We will address our group issue of exclusion and safety as embodied in Sharon and Roger pairing in exclusion from the group.
We will acknowledge and give credit as we see our leaders emerge.

November

The hostilities that have been present between me and Roger since our Seabeck retreat in September of 1996 will be brought to a head and resolved.
The cohort will agree to and begin to work toward what we will define as what we want our learning community to become.

In reviewing the events of the module we observed that fifteen of the eighteen predictions. were at least partially accurate, for a result of 83% accuracy of predictions made.

The predictions which did not manifest themselves were numbers 4, 9 and 15 above. Those that were only partially accurate were numbers 5 and 6 above.

Results of Post-Module Oracles

This section summarizes the results of the post-module portion of the study period. Observations on both the post-module study period and the pre-module study period will be made together, in the following section.

During the post-module portion of the study period we asked the question: "What were the meanings in the events of our just past weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?" This question was asked after the GMP retreat module of September 1997 and then after the two weekend modules in October and November.

After asking the question, the oracle was recorded and interpreted. The interpretation was used as the basis for implying relevance and meaning to the events of the cohort during that month’s weekend module. From this interpretation came a number of possible applications for the use of the oracle in a business setting and also a recurrence of oracles which will be explored in depth in a later section.

Detail of the study period methodology and background on the cohort can be found in Chapter 3.

Detail of the post-module oracle readings can be found in Chapters 4 - 6, sections titled: "The Oracle - Date of oracle for the post-module".

Detail of implied relevance and meaning of the events of the cohort can be found in Chapters 4 - 6, sections titled: "Interpretation of Meaning" and "Relevance of the Post-Module Oracle".

Detail of the oracle recurrence which will be discussed in depth later can be found in Chapter 5, sections titled: "The Oracle - October 5, 1997", "Interpretation of Meaning" and "Relevance of the Post-Module Oracle".

Detail of how the possible business applications summarized in this section were arrived at can be found in Chapters 4 - 6, sections titled: "Preliminary Observations on Applying the Oracle Method".

The following five business applications presented themselves as possibilities during the post-module study period:

September

Oracle as a random entry device for stimulating creativity
Oracle as a reflective tool for personal growth and development

October

Oracle as a strategy development tool
Oracle as a tool to examine whole systems phenomena in groups

November

Oracle as a source of insight and advice in difficult situations

These possible applications will be described more fully in the last sections of this paper as we complete this project.

Observations on the Study Period

It seems evident from how the writing progressed that we found some fairly significant relevance in the I Ching oracles obtained before and after each of the GMP modules in the study period. The predictions of the oracle before the modules served as a tool to allow us to see different possibilities that could arise in the cohort. The meaning and insights of the oracle after the modules served as an aide which allowed reflection on the events which had occurred, almost as if we were an outsider to the situation.

In the pre-module period the predictions provided a degree of certainty of what would or could occur in our cohort. We’ve used the word "possibility" in the previous paragraph, but it seems more than that, and also not-more than that.

It seems more because, with over an 80% accuracy of prediction, we are not really describing a possibility. We are more describing what will actually occur. This is, of course, directly in line with the fortune-telling aspect of the oracle and if true the oracle would be predicting coming events, not describing the possibility of some outcome.

It seems not-more because it is difficult to separate what we expected to see - as predicted by the oracle - from what we actually saw. By this we can refer to the idea in quantum physics mentioned in earlier chapters that what the observer expects to see is what the observer sees. The same idea is warned of by the cultural anthropologist, Geert Hofstede, in Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind as he quotes:

The manner in which animals learn has been much studied in recent years, with a great deal of patient observation and experiment...One may say broadly that all the animals that have been carefully observed have behaved so as to confirm the philosophy in which the observer believed before his observations began. Nay, more, they have all displayed the national characteristics of the observer. Animals studied by Americans rush about frantically, with an incredible display of hustle and pep, and at last achieve the desired result by chance. Animals observed by Germans sit still and think, and at last evolve the solution out of their inner consciousness."

(Bertrand Russell, Outline of Philosophy)

This example is brought only now because this project could be considered anthropologic in nature and we hadn’t considered that possibility earlier. That is, we have been observing an anthropologic culture and society as created and defined by the Graduate Management Program of Antioch University Seattle.

It would seem a little depressing, given this and the corresponding idea from quantum physics, that there is really no way of knowing anything objectively. Yet, in an odd way it may cast a degree of credibility on the usefulness of the I Ching oracle as a predictive tool. If nothing can be known for certain, then anything can be predicted, and thereby created by virtue of the prediction.

Would that make it true however? Perhaps it would be true only to the one observing and making the prediction as suggested by the animals in Russell’s example above. The animals always acted the same way. Yet they were observed to act in the way the observer expected they would act as colored by the observers national characteristics.

Perhaps the better to question to ask is: "Were the predictions useful?"

To this question, at least from a personal point of view, I can answer "yes". Especially as the project progressed I became more and more certain of the accuracy of the predictions. This can be seen, in some way, by the fact fewer predictions were made in each proceeding month. In each proceeding month with more confidence in predictions there was less need to make many predictions in order to assure some were accurate. Although, we can never know for certain, it may be that if we were to redo predictions for September and October that fewer would be made and they would be more accurate than before.

The usefulness of this knowing about what would occur was the ability to remain confident of positive outcomes in the face of difficult circumstances as they occurred during the modules. In addition, the oracles provided advice on how to act and behave during these difficult times. These two aspects of the pre-module oracle provided the ability to rise above the tumult of the cohort. And since the predictions kept coming true, the predictions and advice became reinforcing as good and true experience to heed and follow through with.

The post-module oracles provided a similar degree of certainty to the events of the three modules of the study period, but in a different way. We were not asking for prediction from the post-module experience. Instead we were asking for insights and meanings of the forces that were acting on the cohort.

It was in this role, as provider of insight and meaning, that the oracle began to take on a pronounced anthropomorphic character. We observed in September the oracle take on the role of teacher. In October the role of teacher reappeared, repeating the lessons of September before continuing with a new lesson for the cohort. Finally, in November, as if knowing it would be leaving the cohort, the oracle provided observations on the social order of the cohort, as if to assist our transition toward life without its direct intervention.

This anthropomorphic characterization of the I Ching oracle was hinted at in the Preface of this paper when we queried the oracle as to its thoughts on the undertaking this project entailed. At that time we noted it seemed odd to consider the random manipulation of sticks or coins, as interpreted by a book, to have any type of human or personality traits. Yet, at least to this author, as the study period progressed it seemed more and more as if there was a dialogue being carried out between the oracle and its audience. Both me as reader/interpreter and the reader as audience.

Whether one ascribes to the anthropomorphic nature of the I Ching oracle or not, we can still return to the same question we asked of the pre-module oracles: "Were the insights and meanings derived useful?"

Again, at least personally, I can answer "yes". The oracle provided very rich metaphors for the life of the cohort. Through these metaphors we were facilitated in our ability to analyze and reflect on the actions and reactions of the cohort to the situations we had just experienced. The power of this reflection was assisted by the knowledge of the predictive accuracy of the pre-module oracles. Knowing the oracle had been accurate in describing what would occur gave internal validation to the conclusions it drew after each module. This, of course, pre-supposes a belief in the method, but for now we are only concerned with the I Ching validating itself. In other words, what we are saying is that if the oracle provides an accurate prediction of future events, then it provides internal validation that its insights on those events would be meaningful. Since we experienced a greater than 80% accuracy rate in the predictions recorded in this paper, there was a natural tendency toward internal validation of the insights and meanings we were presented with from the post-module oracles.

By being given powerful, internally validated metaphors as to what was happening to the cohort we were once again assisted in rising above the tumult of the group life of the cohort. We were able to experience difficult situations as paths toward the growth and development of the cohort which the metaphors described. So the I Ching oracle provided a sense of order and purpose for every event of the cohort. It was possible to frame everything that happened within the metaphors provided and to understand the positive outcomes that were developing in every situation. Though we must be careful, again, about seeing what we set out to see, similar may be said of the post-module oracles as of the pre-module oracles. If nothing can be known for certain, then any meaning can be ascribed to a situation, and thereby create just that meaning in the situation.

As mentioned above, in order to give any credibility to the validity or usefulness of the oracle in general practice we must ascribe to the method and have at least a curious belief that the I Ching oracle provides useful information. This is a fairly profound leap because, after all, what are we talking about? The random manipulation of sticks or coins interpreted by a book. By what leap of the imagination could it be possible that a random event could have any significance whatsoever on anything at all? This is the question we began with in Chapter 1 and which may yet require an answer for most readers even after the experience of the study period in which the oracle, at least to the author, seemed to demonstrate its predictive and interpretive powers.

And there may be the beginning of an answer that can be explored.

In October we noted what seemed to be a strange recurrence of oracles. As I recorded in November the recurrence of oracles is no stranger. When I went back to examine oracles systematically recorded from April of 1990 I discovered the same recurring patterns as were observed during this paper’s study period. This got me thinking, though, of ways that could test whether the oracles recorded since April of 1990 were the result of random occurrence, as would be expected, or if there was some force of the universe acting upon them which imbued their outcomes with meaning and significance.

In the next section I will outline four arguments which seem to take the first baby steps toward suggesting the latter.

Four Arguments for the Validity of the I Ching Oracle Method

In this section we will outline four arguments, each of which suggest that the oracle manipulations described in the I Ching are empirically verifiable as having an order not accounted for by random occurrence. While inconclusive in their current form these arguments could be further developed and explored to provide empirical evidence for the I Ching oracle as a tool for predicting and understanding events.

The four arguments presented are an outgrowth of the phenomena recorded in Chapter 5 when we observed the reoccurring nature of the oracles we were receiving. This led me to create a spreadsheet of oracle readings systematically recorded in my copy of the I Ching beginning in April of 1990. As noted, while completing the spreadsheet I discovered that repeating oracles were a common occurrence, I was simply unaware of it until I saw it in the context of this project. It did, however, peak my curiosity and led me to ask more questions in the form of hypotheses for mathematical testing.

The first hypothesis was based on the fact the oracle manipulation simply results in one of 64 random patterns of broken and unbroken lines. An oracle reading could therefore be thought of as resulting in random numbers between 1 and 64. I hypothesized that if one were to generate random numbers between 1 and 64 that one would not expect to see random numbers exhibit the kinds of recurrences observed since 1990. Using a random number generator I re-created the same number of oracle reading periods as had actually occurred since 1990 and then examined for the recurrences we observed during this project. The resulting spreadsheets also contained the recurrences we saw during the project, but in different frequencies of occurrence. For example, the recurrence of an oracle corresponding to the same value x in the very next reading period happened 15 times since 1990 and more times in the re-created spreadsheets using randomly generated numbers.

This development led me to ask whether using mathematics we could test the null hypothesis:

Number recurrences resulting from random numbers generated in a range 1 - 64 will exhibit the same number of recurrences as were seen in actual oracles generated between April 1990 and November 1997.

To test this hypothesis mathematically I chose a statistical test known as chi-square analysis and also did a probability analysis on the recurrences observed.

Quoting from Basic Statistics: A Modern Approach: "Chi-square tests provide the basis for testing whether more than two population proportions may be considered equal; the analysis of variance tests whether more than two population means may be considered equal...Chi-square tests furnish a conclusion on whether a set of observed frequencies differs so greatly from a set of theoretical frequencies that the hypothesis under which the theoretical frequencies were derived should be rejected."

For purposes of this analysis I held the randomly generated results to be theoretical and observed for frequencies of the following recurrences:

Back to back (BTB)^*, when an oracle value x appears in the very next oracle reading period
Within one period (w/in 1), when an oracle value x appears with a separation of one oracle reading period
Within two periods (w/in 2), when an oracle value x appears with a separation of two oracle reading periods
Consecutive numbers (x-x+1), when an oracle value x appears in the same oracle reading period with an oracle value of x+1 or x-1
Three in a row (3inRow), when an oracle value x appears in the next two oracle reading periods

* parenthesis are used as shorthand in the chi-square statistical spreadsheets that follow later.

Probability analysis looks at the frequency of distributions around the mean of a normally distributed binomial distribution. By calculating mean expected frequency and standard deviation one can say with what x% probability an observed frequency observation is to be expected. For example, in a population with a mean age 25 and standard deviation of 2 years, one would expect that 99.7% of the population would have ages between 19 and 31; i.e. within 3 standard deviations from the mean. Conversely, one could also say that if someone were found with an age of 32, that with .03% probability of error, the person was not a member of the measured population.

For purposes of this analysis I relied on Stuart Anderson, a math instructor at the University of Washington. Stuart holds an M.A. in mathematics from John Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland and is also Ph.D. candidate in mathematics at John Hopkins University. After I explained how the oracle worked he was able to provide theoretical mean expected frequencies and standard deviations for the coin oracle of the same recurrences as were tested with chi-square.

Finally, in the process of doing the mathematical tests two additional arguments presented themselves, one from the field of cryptography and the other from the field of psychology.

As will be seen these four arguments seem to suggest further study could result in sound empirical evidence for the validity of the I Ching oracle as a tool for predicting and understanding events.

Statistical Analysis

Two sets of re-created oracle readings were made and are included as Appendix F, spreadsheets numbered 2 - 5. The actual oracle spreadsheet is included in this Appendix, numbered 1.

For spreadsheets #2 and #5 random numbers were generated in the same sequence of changing to unchanging oracles as were received in the actual oracle spreadsheet #1.

For spreadsheets #3 and #4 unchanging lines were allowed to appear on their own. When a random number request generated the same number twice or if a 0 appeared the oracle period X was considered to have been an unchanging reading.

Chi-square analysis was performed against each of the two sets of re-created spreadsheets to determine if the re-creations could be said to generate the number recurrences to be tested for in the same frequency. This resulted in spreadsheets #3 and #4 being discarded as the results of chi-square showed their results to be dissimilar to each other.

Chi-square analysis of comparing spreadsheets #2 and #5 to each other, however, yielded the following result:

In other words, the two spreadsheets generated similar numbers of the recurrences which were to be tested for against the original oracle data in spreadsheet #1 with a .01 probability of error.

We then did Chi-square analysis using spreadsheets #2 and #5 in comparison to the actual data in spreadsheet #1, yielding the following result:

Therefore, testing against the null hypothesis proposed above we can reject the claim of the oracle providing a random result of the number recurrences tested for with a .20 probability of error.

The data seems to suggest, therefore, that when an oracle reading is performed one does not receive the 64 oracles randomly. Yet an oracle reading is the result of a random manipulation of sticks or coins resulting in one of 64 patterns of broken and unbroken lines, and should exhibit the same characteristics of random numbers generated between 1 and 64.

With this result one can begin to ask what it is that is acting on the sticks or coins of the I Ching oracle. If we reject that the outcomes are random, then they must have an order or meaning of some sort that could be discovered with further study.

If we could discover that order would we have the key to using the I Ching oracle to make predictions of future events and understand the meaning of current events?

Probability Analysis

For the probability analysis mathematical calculations were made of the expected frequency and standard deviation that one would expect of each of the number recurrences tested for if 431 tosses of the coin oracle were performed. We also added a probability test for unchanging oracles because this was an easily observable phenomena. Appendix G describes the theory and method used to derive these numbers.

The following is a table of the results of the probability analysis:

Recurrence	Expected #	Std Dev	Oracle Result	Std D/mean	Prob. %

BTB	22	4.5	15	1.55	.88
w/in 1	22	4.5	18	.89	.63
w/in 2	22	4.5	17	1.1	.73
x-(x+1)	9	3	6	1	.68
3inRow	1	1	0	1	.68
Unchanging	77	8	99	2.75	.992

This table shows the number recurrences tested for with their expected frequency and standard deviation of frequency in columns 1 - 3. Columns 4 - 6 then compute the area outside of a normal distribution which the oracle result would be expected to be found. For example, the result of 15 BTB recurrences in row 1 would be expected to be outside of 88% of expected frequencies of this number recurrence. Or, one could say, that the result of 15 BTB number recurrences would not be expected 88% of the time as a result of random occurrences of numbers between 1 and 64.

Therefore, testing against the null hypothesis proposed above we can reject the claim of the oracle providing a random result of the number recurrences tested for with a range of .008 to .37 probability of error.

Again, the data seems to suggest that when an oracle reading is performed one does not receive the 64 oracles randomly. Yet an oracle reading is the result of a random manipulation of sticks or coins resulting in 1 of 64 patterns of broken and unbroken lines, and should exhibit the same characteristics of random numbers generated between 1 and 64.

With this result we can continue to ask what it is that is acting on the sticks or coins of the I Ching oracle. If we reject that the outcomes are random, then they must have an order or meaning of some sort that could be discovered with further study.

If we could discover that order would we have the key to using the I Ching oracle to make predictions of future events and understand the meaning of current events?

Cryptographic Principle

In the course of my conversations on the mathematics of this project with Stuart I asked him whether there was any significance to the fact that the actual oracles I received in spreadsheet #1 in every case fell on the negative side of the mean expected frequency of occurrence and were in every case fewer than those received in the re-created theoretical spreadsheets as shown below. His answer provided me the basis for the argument in this section.


Recurrence
BTB	15	22	24	23
w/in 1	18	22	19	21
w/in 2	17	22	22	19
x-(x+1)	6	9	12	7
3inRow	0	1	1	2

Stuart said that if we were to assume that the oracles were meaningful and attempting to inform us, that one might expect them to be less ordered than would be expected by random order. In other words, the oracle would produce fewer than expected numbers of the recurrences we were testing for, which is exactly what we see.

He based this statement on a cryptographic principle used in deciphering coded text that says: "A meaningful text shows less order than a random text." The reason for this is that order implies repetition and in a meaningful text, meant to communicate, repetition is not normally found. One can see that even in this paper if we consider words to be the basis of repetition. We almost never see a word repeated twice in a row. Stuart also noted that if one uses letters as the basis for repeating, one never sees triple or quadruple repeating letters in any written language. This was interesting because in all four of the re-created spreadsheets #2 - #5 we saw at least one occurrence of a 3inRow number pattern, which did not appear at all in the actual oracles in spreadsheet #1. So because of these phenomena of language, cryptographers include this principle when decoding text because it is obviously assumed that text presented for decoding is conveying a meaningful message.

Applying this principle to the oracle results recorded since April 1990 we can therefore argue that the oracles received hold a meaningful message hidden in their occurrence in the patterns they demonstrated over this period of time. This is, of course, exactly what the I Ching claims to be true and the results of this project argue in favor of that claim.

If we take this argument to its logical conclusion then, the I Ching provides the key to the meaning hidden inside the occurrence of oracle readings and allow us to make predictions of future events and understand the meaning of current events.

Archetype of Collective Unconscious

The final argument in this section comes from Carl Jung’s work on archetypes of the collective unconscious. Archetypes as we recall from Chapter 2 are described by Jung as:

...a part of the psyche which can be negatively distinguished from a personal unconscious by the fact it does not, like the latter, owe its existence to personal experience and consequently is not a personal acquisition…the contents of the collective unconscious have never been in consciousness and therefore have never been individually acquired, but owe their existence exclusively to heredity…the content of the collective unconscious is made up essentially of archetypes... In addition to our immediate consciousness…there exists a second psychic system of a collective, universal and impersonal nature which is identical in all individuals.

The term archetype therefore refers to the existence of definite forms in the unconscious which seem to be present always and forever. Using this foundation Jung elaborates on one such archetype in a paper titled, Concerning Rebirth:

"We must be content with its (rebirth) psychic reality…I am not alluding to the vulgar notion that anything "psychic" is either nothing at all or at best even more tenuous than a gas. Quite the contrary; I am of the opinion that the psyche is the most tremendous fact of life…So long as it is "merely" psychic it cannot be experienced by the senses, but is nonetheless indisputably real. The mere fact that people talk about rebirth, and that there is such a concept at all, means that a store of psychic experiences designated by the term must actually exist." (emphasis added)

What Jung is saying is that the concept of rebirth is an archetype of the collective unconscious that can be found in all times, across all cultures and is independent of learned experience. The very fact that people talk about, and there is a body that believes in, rebirth is proof of the existence and validity of rebirth.

The same can be said of oracles and fortune telling devices. From the Greek Oracle of Delphi to tarot cards, astrology, runes, casting of bones and others, in all times, across all cultures, we find evidence "that a store of psychic experiences designated by the term (oracle) must actually exist." The very fact that people talk about, and there is a body that believes in, oracles can be taken as proof of the existence and validity of oracles.

If we accept the presence of oracles and fortune telling devices as an archetype of the collective unconscious then we could also accept the validity of the claims described by their existence. In that case we could accept the oracle as a tool to make predictions of future events and understand the meaning of current events?

Where Do These Arguments Lead?

It is very simple. I believe we have found the beginning of empirical evidence which shows the I Ching is a tool to make predictions of future events and understand the meaning of current events.

It is as if my life over the past twenty years is suddenly understandable. I have been learning tai ji, which led to tao and I Ching. In my studies I was searching without knowing, for the vehicle to bring light to what it was I was coming to understand. Mind you, I did not know I was coming to understand anything. It was more a state of unrest and gnawing in the back of my head that every once in a while would almost jump out and say: "Here it is!" It was as if at times I almost knew. And then it was gone. Poof!

Over the course of these past three months the image has come more clear, especially in the last month as I pursued the statistical test of the I Ching oracle. What has always been my downfall was my left-brain rational mind. The right-brain intuitive method of the I Ching just didn’t fit. As much as I would experience how closely the oracle could describe circumstances these past twenty years, I simply could not get past the fact we’re dealing with a bunch of sticks or coins. I would rationalize: "It’s just a random event." "The words of the I Ching are written so broadly they could apply to any circumstance."

I can’t do that now. The oracle has gone beyond simply providing what appear to be meaningful answers to questions. It has now revealed itself in a way that brings four arguments to bear on its validity. The arguments come from separate disciplines and play together to create what feels like a compelling case which must be considered beyond the confines of the GMP.

Any of these arguments alone could perhaps be passed off. Together they seem to suggest a need for further research and study outside the confines of GMP. And, of course, further research will be necessary in order to draw conclusive findings from what is described in this section. In extensive conversation with my faculty advisors I have been counseled that chi-square is a very weak test of the null hypothesis proposed. Someone much more versed than me in statistical or mathematical tests of randomness will need to have a curiosity about these results and perhaps devise more credible tests to either prove or disprove these arguments and their present conclusions.

In ending this section I will suggest possible ways of continuing this research and then trust to providence as I move on to the final, concluding section of this paper. If anyone decides to pursue these or any other avenues, I will of course, be happy to share all relevant data from this study via the electronic media I have stored. And, if I can assist in any small way, I will assist as much as I can.

Possibilities for continuing this research:

Devise a more sophisticated means than probability theory to test if the oracles received in spreadsheet #1 are random occurrence or not.
Devise a stronger statistical analysis to test the null hypothesis of this section.
Seek out other people who have kept I Ching diaries. Test for recurrences as above to see if the results duplicate themselves.
Create a set of random recurrences to test for in the spreadsheets in Appendix F; e.g., an oracle value x then two down and one across to another oracle value x. Test for these recurrences as above and with any other tests devised.
Re-create additional spreadsheets of the type #2 and #5 and see if the results of chi-square and probability analysis continue.

Oracle as a Random Entry Device for Stimulating Creativity

Possible Business Applications Using the I Ching Oracle Method

During the study period we recorded a number of possible ways of applying the I Ching oracle in a business setting. We now conclude this project by summarizing these applications and describing how they could be used.

In researching Western literature, we earlier noted the parallels of the I Ching oracle with the growing body of writing devoted to creativity. We referenced some of the work of Dr. Edward de Bono on lateral thinking techniques that can be used to systematically stimulate creative thinking in business situations. One of these lateral thinking techniques is random entry and came to mind as a possible business application for the I Ching oracle after our cohort’s September retreat.

Random entry is a creativity technique for coming up with new ideas for solving complex problems. The first step as described by de Bono is to obtain a source of random words; a dictionary, magazine, book, the important things being it must be distant and apart from the problem at hand. A random word is then selected - nouns work best - and then you see what ideas the word generates against the problem stated. One then finds revealed a set of solutions that are better than any which existed before. As de Bono states: "It always works!" Why he goes on to explain, is that every idea, from a creative sense, is connected to every other idea.

Not discounting that the I Ching oracle may be providing prediction, it is clear that the manipulation of the oracle is performed in a way that models a random event. In this case, we could use the oracle as a random entry device when confronted with a problem which we wanted to think creatively about. We could form a statement of the problem and then do an oracle manipulation. The resulting oracle and words of the I Ching text would form the starting point for generating ideas against the stated problem. Since, as de Bono says: "It (random entry) always works!" we could expect that the ideas generated in this way would provide meaningful and significant approaches to solving the business problem described.

Used in this way we would have a powerful tool available for generating creative ideas to perplexing business problems. When faced with a seemingly unknown situation and multiple complexity we could employ the I Ching using a systematic process of inquiry as follows:

Write down as much background as immediately comes to mind about the problem. Record seeming contradictions or mutually exclusive options as independent entries without worrying about how they would be resolved.
Formulate a question that synthesizes the background. Often this question will be a statement such as: "Now that I’ve recorded all this background, what does it mean?"
Do an I Ching oracle manipulation.
Reflect on the words of the I Ching text and record ideas for action.
Save the results of steps 1 - 4 for future reference and refinement.
As conditions change revisit past oracles with new information, repeating steps 1-4 as a source of continuous creative energy

The I Ching oracle could, in this application, even be an enhancement of random entry as described by de Bono because we’re not relying on a single word to generate creative ideas. We will also be provided metaphors, text, and advice. As we’ve seen from the study period, these metaphors can provide very powerful help in framing daily events. It could be expected, therefore, that by using the oracle as a random entry device we would not only arrive at powerful creative ideas, but also a model which could be used as a starting point for beginning implementation of the ideas.

An additional benefit, of having a systematic approach to call on when faced with perplexing problems, also comes from this application. By having a starting point we could expect a certain peace of mind, or confidence, by knowing there is always somewhere to go when we are presented with a problem that doesn’t seem to have any starting place. As we become more comfortable consulting the I Ching in this way we will have a constant source of new and creative energy to bring to any situation we are confronted with.

Oracle as a Reflective Tool for Personal Growth and Development

The application of the I Ching oracle as a reflective tool presented itself after our September retreat. We noted how the pre-module oracle granted a degree of comfort by providing a sense of knowing about what could occur from the events being experienced by the cohort. The post-module oracle also helped frame an understanding of what meanings were present in the experiences we had gone through.

Reflective writing is an integral part of the GMP experience. Each month students are expected to produce a reflective essay based on the events of the monthly weekend module. The purpose of this essay is to allow students to reflect and integrate learning with their work and personal development goals.

Reflective writing as a learning technique for professionals makes up a growing field in social science. A leading author, David A. Schon, remarks on the phenomena of reflection-in-action as a related idea:

Reflection-in-action...hinges on the experience of surprise...when intuitive performance leads to surprises, pleasing or unwanted, we respond by reflecting in action...reflection tends to focus interactively on the outcomes of action, the action itself, and the intuitive knowing implicit in the action.

By using reflective writing to systematically review recent learning events one can increase the likelihood of bringing surprises to surface consciousness where reflection-in-action can take place. The Graduate Management Program: Student Handbook describes a three stage process which can assist students new to reflective writing.

In the first stage students focus on personal reactions to a single event and examine their feeling and reactions to the event. In the second stage, reflections of events are expanded to include applications to work and personal life by looking at the motivations of the students’ actions during the event. In the third and final stage, the student takes a future oriented posture, anticipating the impact of events on future work or personal development.

Reflective practice, used in this way, is said to be a systematic way of tapping into the basic creative energy of all professional learning. It allows us to discover the inner talents we have at our disposal, fully develop our potential and be more likely to create the futures we desire for ourselves.

During the three months of this project I excerpted the post-module segments of this paper in fulfillment of the monthly reflective essay required by the GMP. The process of using the oracle in this way worked remarkably well and provided me with what seemed a deeper level of insight than I had experienced previously in earlier reflective essays. The metaphors that the I Ching text provides were very powerful instruments for framing and providing context to the events of the weekend modules. If we examine this process in light of Schon’s reflection-in-action and in light of the three stage process described in the Graduate Management Program: Student Handbook we can see why.

As a reflection-in-action tool the oracle provides the perfect vehicle to "...focus interactively on the outcomes of action, the action itself, and the intuitive knowing implicit in the action." The strength of metaphor is its ability to synthesize these elements into a cohesive whole. It also initiates the "surprise" element Schon describes as necessary for reflection-in-action to occur. When we are presented with an oracle reading in this context we are immediately "surprised" by the connection of the oracle to the situation we are examining. We are also given a metaphor on which to hang the experiences we are examining. Since the oracle is essentially an intuitive instrument, it naturally enhances the ability to focus on the three elements of reflection-in-action which Schon describes.

If we look at the oracle in light of the three stage process in the Graduate Management Program: Student Handbook we see that it immediately allows us to jump to the third stage of the process where we consider the future and anticipate the impact of events. Throughout the course of this paper the oracle has shown its ability to give, if not predict, at least some powerful clues about the future. If we use it, therefore, with an underlying belief in this power we will be presented with potent images and ideas to base our reflective development on. Regular use in this way will begin to provide a framework of thinking about the future and a means of anticipating behavior that is more likely to result in successful outcomes at work and in our personal lives.

By studying the oracle readings in Chapters 4 - 6, we can see in detail how to apply the oracle as a reflective tool for personal growth and development. An overview of the process can be described as follows:

Write down as much background as comes to mind about the situation to be reflected on. Record ideas that come to mind. Include relevant events from the past and present. Begin to formulate speculative ideas about the future including desires, beliefs about what could happen and potential obstacles.
Formulate a question that synthesizes the background. Often this question will be a statement such as: "Now that I’ve recorded all this background, what does it mean?"
Do an I Ching oracle manipulation.
Reflect on the words of the I Ching text and record thoughts and ideas as dialogue about the significance of the current events at play.
Save the results of steps 1 - 4 for future reference.
Revisit past oracles, adding new information from life events, repeating steps 1-4 to provide a continual dialogue on the path your reflective leaning is taking.

In this application, the oracle will take on the role of trusted companion and mentor. We will be provided the comfort and security of knowing there is always somewhere to turn to for counsel and advice. And, of course, since we are carrying out a reflective dialogue with ourselves, so to speak, we can be assured that whatever confidences we share will be completely safe from outsiders. This will give us the freedom to "say anything, dream anything, create anything" all within the safety of our own being. If, as it is said, reflective practice performed regularly will allow us to more likely create the futures we desire, then used in this way, the oracle will be a vehicle to help us visualize and create our future.

Oracle as a Strategy Development Tool

The October GMP module began a three month examination of strategy, structures and systems. In exploring mature organizations we were introduced to several models of strategic planning which focused on the development of strategy in mature organizations. Many of the techniques that strategy development employ seem very naturally suited to using the I Ching oracle method.

In readings from Henry Mintzberg’s The Strategy Process: Concepts, Contexts, Cases we learned strategy requires the ability to consider the many parts of systems as a whole and to apply intuitive thinking to putting ambiguous data into a coherent picture. It requires the ability to see relationships and patterns. It involves managing contradictory organization structures and managing the process of seeing emerging patterns from the independent actions in dichotomous areas of the business. Finally, it requires the ability to understand there is no right answer, only the process of learning about the many possible answers. By this time it should be apparent that all of these areas can be enlightened by the oracle method of inquiry and are in concert with the basic premise embodied in the I Ching.

Mintzberg makes these points relative to strategy relationships and patterns:

...(in the strategy process) no one relationship, nor any single definition for that matter, takes precedence over the others...Each definition adds important elements to our understanding of strategy, indeed encourages us to address fundamental questions about organizations in general."

...strategy is the pattern of decisions in a company that determines and reveals its objectives, purposes, or goals...It is important, however, not to take the idea apart in another way, that is, to separate goals from the policies designed to achieve those goals. The essence of the definition of strategy I have just recorded is pattern."

In both these points Mintzberg is cautioning against creating, or understanding, strategy as individual elements of a plan. Rather, we must consider strategy in relation to and as a part of a pattern of all elements present in our business and in the world at-large. The capacity of people to consider this many variables, of course, is the challenge and, in many cases, the downfall of many strategy development efforts. Even though a large multitude of variables may be known, what normally occurs is that a small subset of variables is chosen for consideration. Strategy is developed around these variables as if they model the entire realm of possibilities. Contradictory factors must be limited, or choices must be made as to which of two contradictory factors to consider. Sophisticated techniques are applied to the selected variables which creates confidence in the outcomes of the strategy. Variables that run counter to assumptions are easily dismissed. When the strategy is executed and falls short, because of the effort involved to create the strategy, the strategy is often held as more valid than market reality and actions are then taken to "prove" the strategy is sound. Even in the best cases, when enough variables are considered and a sound strategy developed, the fact that all variables cannot be considered will limit the potential of even the best strategy development efforts.

What could be useful would be a fast and easy means of capturing as many known variables as possible and assimilating these factors into a synthesized whole. As we’ve seen, the I Ching oracle method demonstrates such a capacity. It doesn’t take a lot of time to do an oracle manipulation and the process is easily taught. Prior to an inquiry we can record anything, so contradictions and "thousands of ideas" that couldn’t possibly be considered together and in relation to each other can be recorded. The reading that results will be a synthesis of all that is recorded and can be employed side by side with traditional strategy methods to provide an overall context and story (metaphor?) to test strategy elements against as they develop. If, as executed, the strategy begins to falter it is again an easy effort to add new factors to the recorded mix and redo an oracle inquiry, now yielding a synthesis of the original strategy development and the new conditions we have become aware of.

When it comes to managing contradictory organization structures and managing the process of seeing emerging patterns from independent actions in dichotomous areas of a business, Mintzberg has this to say:

...the challenges of breaking down biases and building a truly multidimensional organization proved difficult...There is a widespread, often implicit assumption that different business units are uniform and symmetrical...Most companies, some consciously, most unconsciously, create internal interunit relationships on clear patterns of dependence or independence, on the assumption that such relationships should be clear and unambiguous...there is the assumption that one of corporate management’s principal tasks is to institutionalize clearly understood mechanisms for decision making and to implement simple means of exercising control...Those companies most successful in developing truly multidimensional organizations were the ones that challenged these assumptions and replaced them with very different attitudes and norms."

In this quote Mintzberg cautions us to accept a certain degree of chaos and ambiguity in the organizations we manage. The idea that things can be the same must be replaced with the idea that things are different. Management in this realm must be able to discern and create radically different ways of seeing and approaching business realities.

The I Ching oracle becomes an entirely different tool when considered against this criteria. At least for the foreseeable future, we can confidently say that using an oracle in application to business will be considered a widely radical approach to managing organizations. The very act of accepting the I Ching oracle into the strategy process, therefore, will act as a positive influence toward eliminating the assumptions Mintzberg describes above. And, even after the I Ching oracle is generally accepted in business, the very nature of the tool is such that it will continue to work against assumptions of sameness or uniformity and propagate multidimensional thinking wherever it is applied.

The final area of the strategy creation process we will consider is the point Mintzberg brings in The Strategy Process: Concepts, Contexts, Cases that strategy requires the ability to understand there is no right answer, only the process of learning about the many possible answers. On this topic Mintzberg provides an article by Peter Senge titled: "The Leader’s New Work: Building Learning Organizations" in which Senge says:

Unfortunately...The young child entering school discovers quickly that the name of the game is getting the right answer and avoiding mistakes-a mandate no less compelling to the aspiring manager...the key is not getting the right strategy but fostering creative thinking...Much of the leverage leaders can actually exert lies in helping people achieve more accurate, more insightful, and more empowering views of reality.

Senge notes that from birth we are conditioned to search for, and expect there to be, one right answer to every question or problem. As noted earlier, because of the infinite number of variables and relationships to consider (many of them contradictory) it is impossible to engage in a successful strategy development process if we believe there is a single correct strategy that will result. Senge says to foster creative thinking and empowering views of reality instead. Through these means we will be able to see and accept ambiguity and contradiction without being paralyzed into inaction.

The I Ching oracle can be of help in encouraging this way of thinking too. The text of the I Ching does not provide clear answers. Instead it provides metaphors and advice that can be applied to any number of situations. The process of using the oracle requires us to engage in a creative process, thereby encouraging creative thinking. The process of developing an interpretation of an oracle engages us in the creation of a new reality. Combined, these two processes can begin to train us to look for answers in multiple places, using multiple means and considering multiple possible solutions.

To employ the I Ching oracle as a strategy development tool the following process could be employed:

Write down as much background as comes to mind about the strategic situation to be developed. Record ideas from as broad an audience throughout the organization as possible. Consciously consider contradictions and paradoxes present in the situation. Begin to formulate speculative ideas about the future including desires, beliefs about what could happen and potential obstacles.
Formulate a question that synthesizes the background. Often this question will be a statement such as: "Now that I’ve recorded all this background, what kind of a strategy does it imply?"
Do an I Ching oracle manipulation.
Reflect on the words of the I Ching text and record as a story the strategy suggested by the oracle.
Save the results of steps 1 - 4 for future reference and refinement.
As conditions change revisit past oracles with new information, repeating steps 1-4 to form a new or refined strategy.

In this application the oracle will take on the role of trusted business consultant. Together with the formal disciplines of strategy development we will have a completely unbiased source of information for our strategic process. We will have a powerful tool to synthesize the many parts of systems as a whole and to apply intuitive thinking to putting ambiguous data into a coherent picture. We will enhance our ability to see relationships and patterns. We will improve our comfort level with managing contradictory organization structures and managing the process of seeing emerging patterns from independent actions in dichotomous areas of the business. Finally, we will gain considerable practice in developing our ability to understand that there is no right answer, only the process of learning about the many possible answers.

Oracle as a Tool to Examine Whole Systems Phenomena in Groups

During October of the study period we noted an application that stemmed from what we observed in the reflective writing of me and my class members who were sharing their monthly reflective essays. A comparison of my earlier essays with those written with the assistance of the I Ching shows a much stronger "we" flavor in the writing done through the I Ching oracle. It is as if by using the I Ching oracle to reflect on our group events it is possible to see events from a whole perspective. Our cohort and I had written from an "I" perspective up to this time. The "we" perspective seems more powerful and also could be useful as a business tool to provide insights into what’s happening in the groups we work with every day.

In pursuing this application we can compare the oracle approach with systems theory as described in Chapter 2. Systems theory starts from the premise that everything operates as a system. A system is defined as a combination of individual parts which operate together and on each other, any one of which when alone, loses its properties if disassociated from the system. An analogy to the human body and its parts is useful. A hand can only be understood as a hand when it is connected to the body. Separate the hand from the body and the function of the hand can no longer be understood because it no longer has the ability to function and perform the purpose of a hand.

A fuller and more technical definition of a system is provided by Russell Ackoff:

A system is a whole consisting of two or more parts (1) each of which can effect the performance or properties of the whole, (2) none of which can have an independent effect on the whole, and (3) no subgroup of which can have an independent effect on the whole. In brief, then, a system is a whole that cannot be divided into independent parts or subgroups of parts.

The implication of systems theory and these definitions is that to understand any system one must study the whole system at once and not its parts individually. This compares favorably to the I Ching premise of wholeness. When we receive an oracle it is a part of the system of life in the universe. It has naturally been acted on by this system. Therefore, conclusions about an individual inquiry can be drawn by virtue of the question and the oracle being a part of the same system, with the same forces acting upon both.

From this perspective, then, we will view an I Ching oracle reading as providing a basis for understanding the whole interactions going on in groups. The metaphors provided in readings will give us a way of considering the whole of the group-as-system without having it "divided into independent parts or subgroups of parts." From this vantage, as we saw in the study period, we are given a potent tool for understanding the interaction of the systems dynamics at play in group life.

By studying the oracle readings in Chapters 4 - 6 we can see in detail how to apply the oracle as a tool for understanding whole systems in a group context. An overview of the process can be described as follows:

Write down as much background as comes to mind about the group and system dynamics which are observable. Record ideas that come to mind. Include relevant events from the past and present. Begin to formulate speculative ideas about the future including desires, beliefs about what could happen and potential obstacles.
Formulate a question that synthesizes the background. Often this question will be a statement such as: "Now that I’ve recorded all this background, what does it mean?"
Do an I Ching oracle manipulation.
Create a story from the words of the I Ching text and record thoughts and ideas as dialogue for future reference.
Save the results of steps 1 - 4 for future reference and refinement.
As conditions change revisit past oracles with new information, repeating steps 1-4 to form a new or refined understanding of the group.

In this application the oracle takes on the role of systems coach. We will be continuously taken to a group level with the introduction of metaphors which help frame the events taking place in the life of the group. As the dialogue develops we will begin to see how the group is developing and maturing. Because the oracle could be considered an outside force the information provided can be treated as neutral and unbiased by the group employing this method. The insights provided in the inquiry and resulting dialogue will begin to help the group understand its own processes and potential sources of conflict. As these become known and out in the open the group will become comfortable in confronting difficulties in a direct and open way, avoiding the problems of having problems hidden beneath personalities and hidden agendas.

In the end, we could expect a fuller more alive group, engaging itself constructively on problems which before it may have stumbled on, or perhaps not even considered approaching.

Oracle as a Source of Insight and Advice in Difficult Situations

As we closed out the study period in November we noted the potential for using the I Ching oracle to receive insight and advice when one is presented with a difficult situation or set of events. In both the pre-module and the post-module oracles of November it was very apparent that there was a set of advice that was being given. We also noted that since the pre-module advice turned out to be so appropriate to the weekend, it seemed to lend credibility to the advice of the post-module oracle.

Beyond advice though, is the question of how one would employ the tool. Up to the November oracles, while advice was always evident, it wasn’t the dominant message. So as we explore this application it may be necessary to develop a rational for accepting the oracle in the form it presents itself. That is to say, if we approach the oracle for help in a difficult situation, and we receive advice on strategy or creativity, we must be open to the advice we receive instead of that which we asked for. This application, then, takes on a flavor of encompassing all the others. This could be expected perhaps. To the extent the applications presented up to this point could also be considered difficult situations, we could say what we have presented in the previous four applications are also requests for advice, albeit, for advice germane to a specific situation; i.e., strategy, creativity, etc. This application, therefore, could be considered a general request for advice when we find ourselves in situations where we aren’t sure what approach to take in understanding what’s going on.

When we find ourselves in a business situation, or a personal situation for that matter, and don’t know if creativity, strategy or any of the other applications we’ve discussed are appropriate, we will have the ability to employ the oracle in this general fashion. Being open to outcomes will allow the oracle to provide whatever advise is appropriate to the situation.

By studying the oracle readings for November in Chapter 6 we can see in detail how to apply the oracle as a tool in this way. An overview of the process can be described as follows:

Write down as much background as comes to mind about situation being confronted. Record ideas that come to mind. Include relevant events from the past and present. Begin to formulate speculative ideas about the future including desires, beliefs about what could happen and potential obstacles.
Formulate a question that synthesizes the background. Often this question will be a statement such as: "Now that I’ve recorded all this background, what does it mean?"
Do an I Ching oracle manipulation.
Create a story from the words of the I Ching text and record thoughts and ideas as dialogue for future reference.
Save the results of steps 1 - 4 for future reference and refinement.
As conditions change revisit past oracles with new information, repeating steps 1-4 to form a new or refined understanding of ambiguous situations as they appear.

In this application the oracle again takes on the role of trusted companion and mentor. A similar role as it plays when used as a reflective tool. We will be provided the comfort and security of knowing there is always somewhere to turn to for counsel and advice when faced with ambiguous situations. And, of course, since we are carrying out a dialogue with ourselves we can be assured that whatever confidences we share will be addressed and held in private. Just as in its use as a reflective tool, this will give us the freedom "say anything, dream anything, create anything" all within the safety of our own being. If, as we saw in November, the oracle provides significantly useful advice in these situations we will be better able to cope and find ourselves through the difficult times.

At this time I could go on, but my outside reviewer, Jed Selter, said it much better in comments he gave regarding this project, and on this topic:

Observation

Pre-Cohort - The revelation (to you) re: your experiment seems to me to be that use of the I Ching for pre cohort meetings was that it heightened your personal sensitivity to interactions and events as they unfolded during the cohort.

It also seemed to allow (or support) your openness to others - the idea of no preconceived expectations on your part of what others "should" do (or the way they should act to fit your pre-conception of them.)

The value, here, is that awareness of the I Ching "possibilities" supported your being relaxed, more conscious and able to manage yourself for heightened, positive, balanced interactions. Your sensitivity and care for others seemed to expand, and you were able to operate more quietly, less emotionally re-active, and manage your reactions to others focused on the I Ching considerations, instead of "what's good for me...regardless of the expense to others."

Post-Cohort - The I Ching post exercise facilitated your analysis of how you acted, and how others reacted to you. Almost unconsciously (it seems to me), the I Ching caused you to reflect on how you and others operated, and supported you to mentally list and cement (validate) that which worked/didn't work in how you conducted yourself in contact with others.

Use of the I Ching, then, regardless of its inherent specific predictions, was a useful self awareness, self-management tool. It provided you the capability for:

-self-consciousness for focus

-attitude monitoring

-focus for personal authenticity

-reflection for future conduct

People responded (mirrored back to you) your "not putting yourself first" - that is the high level of your personal authenticity- in interacting with them. Even when you disagreed with others and others disagreed with you, there was a general recognition and appreciation of you - you conveyed your authenticity, and it was realized and appreciated by others.

At least in my experience, this is a humbling experience (as I think it was for you, from what you said) - and feeling that way also is conveyed naturally to people - in the warmth and directness in eye contact, in the openness in body language, in the softness of language and speaking tone. What a wonderful self energizing circle this sets up personal authenticity, appreciation from others, humbleness in being appreciated.

This is humanness expressed among people.

(How much better can it get?)

Usefulness for Business

In business, as in all other areas of our lives, things only get done on the basis of personal interactions - personal relationships. These relationships are either positive or negative, productive or ineffective, based on how we manage ourselves in interacting.

Managing ourselves means being honest with ourselves in what we think and how we feel, and choosing - making conscious decisions before and during interacting with others on whether we decide to:

- put ourselves first (manipulation and control of others for our own use),or

-be open, generative and supportive of others (putting ourselves second, with others first).

Is there a usefulness of the I Ching in business? A resounding YES! Managing business successfully means managing change, being flexible and reacting/ adapting with others focused on business needs.

Closing Comments on this Paper

As we close this project, it seems, we leave with as many questions as there may be answers. Have we really done anything? Are there any credible conclusions to be drawn from this project? Can any of this be believed? Is there any more credibility now to the throwing around of a bunch of sticks or coins than when we began?.

To all these questions the author can answers with a resounding "yes!" This project has taken me a long way down the path to becoming a strong believer in the power of the I Ching to make predictions of future events and understand the meaning of current events. In going through the study period this belief has been strengthened with every passing month. With the curious results of the four arguments presented in this chapter there appears to be much more at play than a random set of falling coins or sticks. There is a meaning that waits further research and exploration. Perhaps, even to discover the key to using the I Ching for its ultimate purpose:

To predict (or create?) whatever future we desire.
To understand with complete certainty what is unfolding in every event surrounding us.

To the reader I leave the choice…

How do you now answer these questions?

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Appendix
Appendix A The Yarrow Stalk Method

"Fifty yarrow stalks are used. One is symbolically laid aside and plays the role of observer until your inquiry is completed. Because there is a spiritual value in laying aside the observer stalk, I always pick it up at the end of my inquiry and thank it for its participation, and I thank the venerable ancient sages for their presence and assistance. The most important spiritual quality one can develop is that of reverence for all things. All-That-Is is aware of you, and your reverence shows that you are aware of All-That-Is."

"Carefully follow the eleven steps of dividing the yarrow stalks:

Hold the bundle of 49 stalks in your left hand. Think about your question and the circumstances which gave rise to the question. If the question has to do with a person, visualize that person. If a problem is the subject of your inquiry, think about the various aspects of the problem. See in your mind's eye the people or objects associated with the question. Close your eyes; hold the question in your mind.
With your right hand, grasp a portion of stalks from the bundle held in your left hand.
Place the bundle you have grasped in your right hand on the blanket and take from it one stalk.
Place that stalk between the little finger and ring finger of your left hand.
With your right hand, take bundles of four from the stalks remaining in your left hand until four or fewer stalks remain.
Place those four or fewer stalks between the ring finger and middle finger of your left hand.
Take the remaining stalks that were in your left hand and lay them down separately, retaining the stalks between your fingers.
Pick up the bundle of stalks that you first removed from your left hand and return that bundle to your left hand.
With your right hand, remove bundles of four until there are four or fewer stalks remaining.
Place those four or fewer stalks between your middle finger and your index finger and place the remaining stalks on the blanket, retaining the stalks placed between your fingers.
Count the stalks held between your fingers."

"You must have either 9 or 5 stalks. If you have any number of stalks other than 9 or 5, you have either taken bundles of fours incorrectly, or you did not begin with the correct number of stalks. The various possibilities of stalks held between your fingers are:

1 - 4 - 4 = 9

1 - 1 - 3 = 5

1 - 3 - 1 = 5

1 - 2 - 2 = 5

As you can see, it is much more probable that you will obtain a five than a nine."

"To the number 9 is assigned the numerical value of 2, and to the number 5 is assigned the numerical value of 3. Therefore, if your total number of stalks is 9, write the number 2 on your page as shown in the example on page 19, line 1 of the kua; if the total number of stalks is 5, write the number 3. Those 9 or 5 stalks are now laid aside for the time being."

"Repeat steps 1 through 11."

"When you have gone through the eleven steps the second time, you must have either 8 or 4 stalks remaining between your fingers. Any other number of stalks means you have manipulated the stalks incorrectly."

"If you find that you have manipulated the stalks incorrectly, but you still hold the stalks between your fingers, restore the stalks to their respective bundles and count again. If you no longer hold the stalks between your fingers, you must repeat that division of the stalks, but just for that one operation; the first counting which resulted in 9 or 5 is still valid."

"In the second grasping, the possible combinations of stalks held between your fingers are:

1 - 4 - 3 = 8

1 - 3 - 4 = 8

1 - 1 - 2 = 4

1 - 2 - 1 = 4

As you can see, the odds of obtaining 4 or 8 are equal. The 4 or 8 stalks are laid aside near the bundle of 9 or 5 stalks previously laid aside. To the number 8 is assigned the numerical value of 2. To the number 4 is assigned the numerical value of 3. Write the correct number alongside the first number you wrote.’

"Repeat steps one through eleven."

"At the completion of this division of the yarrow stalks, you must either have a total of 4 or 8. Any other total means you have counted incorrectly. As in the last division, 8 = 2, and 4 = 3. Write the correct number alongside the other two numbers. All of the stalks, except for the observer stalk, may now be gathered together."

"Total the three numbers you wrote. The result must be 6, 7, 8, or 9 as follows:

9 (2) + 8 (2) + 8 (2) = 6

5 (3) + 8 (2) + 8 (2) = 7

9 (2) + 8 (2) + 4 (3) = 7

9 (2) + 4 (3) + 8 (2) = 7

9 (2) + 4 (3) + 4 (3) = 8

5 (3) + 4 (3) + 8 (2) = 8

5 (3) + 8 (2) + 4 (3) = 8

5 (3) + 4 (3) = 4 (3) = 9

You now are able to record the first line of your kua, which is the bottom line. The following numbers yield the following lines.

6 = -- x --

7 = -------

8 = -- --

9 = ---o---

The "x" and "o" in the lines formed by the 6 and the 9 indicate that they are lines that move and should be taken into consideration in the answer to your question. Lines obtained with the numbers 7 or 8 are not to be taken into consideration in your answer."

"To obtain the other five lines, the above process is repeated five more times. Since the kua is built from the bottom up, when you record the numbers for each succeeding line, write them above the first three numbers from which the first line was obtained."

"As you saw in the example, a line that is obtained with a 6 or a 9 changes into its opposite: divided lines into undivided lines and undivided lines into divided lines. The changing line or lines give rise to a new kua which shows what the situation will develop into or will further clarify the answer given in the first kua. None of the lines of the second kua are to be taken into consideration, not even the corresponding moving lines that were in the first kua, although all the lines should be read to understand the full meanings of the kua."

"At first, the manipulation of the stalks to obtain a kua will take considerable time, but after a while the handling of the stalks becomes natural, and the process goes much faster. Be patient, perform the manipulation of the stalks correctly, record your results accurately, and you will find the results to be extremely gratifying and worthwhile."

Appendix B Antioch Learning Vision

Learning Vision for:

Tony Granillo

Graduate Management Program 1998

March 1997

Vision

I am a person people trust and understand.

My superiors want me to lead and develop significant pieces of the businesses we are involved with.

The people who work with me have the ability to maximize their personal potential through the works we accomplish together.

The customers I serve have a deep satisfaction with my products and services which comes from a shared development of the "hows" I use to meet their needs.

The suppliers I work with provide me superior service because I share the constraints of my business and allow them to help me achieve my objectives while they earn fair value for their contributions.

The people who fund my work receive fair value on their investment and feel confident of long term returns.

I view competitors as people able to serve those customers whose needs I am unable to fulfill.

The community I work in is enriched by the work I do and realizes a net gain from my presence.

Purpose

Live at peace with myself; appreciating my strengths, accepting my weaknesses and working to improve every day. Attain a deep understanding and acceptance of how others see me. Through my efforts leave the world a better place for my having been here.

Values

Pursue inner peace

Maintain a healthy mind and body

Care for and nurture my family

Learn every day from everybody and everything around me

Be open, honest and caring in all relationships

Add value to the environment I live in

Goals

Develop and maintain happy and healthy family relationship with all my personal life partners

Develop and maintain happy and healthy personal relationships with everyone I enter into a social partnership with

Achieve a position of senior executive management in a world class company

Achieve financial independence as measured by net worth of at least $10 million (1990 index)

Appendix C Convention for Recording I Ching Oracles

When one examines the Wilhelm I Ching text for explaining a hexagram it is always laid out in the following order:

Title of the hexagram
A pictogram of the hexagram
Introductory notes
A section named: The Judgment

I Ching text of The Judgment (resembling a poem)
Explanatory notes on The Judgment text
A section named: The Image

I Ching text of The Image (resembling a poem)
Explanatory notes on The Image text
A section named: The Lines

I Ching text describing each of the lines, six in all (resembling a poem)
Explanatory text to each Line text

My convention will be to record the oracle reading as follows:

Title of the Hexagram

Pictogram of the hexagram

Paraphrase introductory notes as interpreted to the questions (optional)

Personal commentary on introductory notes. (optional)

The Judgment

Quote the text of The Judgment

Paraphrase notes to The Judgment as interpreted to the questions

Provide original interpretation of the text of The Judgment and the paraphrased notes

The Image

Quote the text of The Image

Paraphrase notes to The Image as interpreted to the questions

Provide original interpretation of the text of The Image and the paraphrased notes

The Lines

Quote the text of The Lines for each changing line

Paraphrase notes to The Lines as interpreted to the questions

Provide original interpretation of the text of The Lines and the paraphrased notes

Appendix D Negotiated Agreements from Seabeck Fall 1997

#1 When verbal and/or non-verbal messages are received negatively:

first, talk to the person directly (if you can) in the moment or off line, then, if needed, ask for help from another, the other will be responsible to assist the original person in talking to the individual; if not resolved, ask for more help; if still not resolved or addressed then bring the issue to the whole community for discussion.

#2 We will honor (honour) our agreed upon time frames or re-negotiate time frames with those present.

#3 (tentative) We will inform another person if we are leaving the group when or because others may be worried/concerned about us.

Appendix E Possible Actions to Develop Our Community of Learners

Act in accord to the three agreements we have, revisit when needed.
Pause before responding.
Practice dialog skills.
Choose the positive interpretation.
Reach out to heal.
Respect boundaries.
Share duties/responsibilities.
Provide feedback/encourage conversations on the topic.
Fully listen.
Use DPO (designated process observer) starting in October.

Appendix F Probability of Observed Oracle Patterns

From: Stuart Anderson[SMTP:strt@u.washington.edu]

Sent: Saturday, December 20, 1997 6:55 PM

To: Granillo, Anthony R

Subject: Re: Help with my homework

Here are some partial results. I ran out of time to work on it, as

there were many interruptions. I'll have more for you after I come back

from my Christmas visit to my parents...

These are the meanings of each line (as I understand them) and their

probabilities:

Value Probability Changing? Strong?

6 1/8 yes no

7 3/8 no yes

8 3/8 no no

9 1/8 yes yes

By adding up the cases, you can see that the following are true for

each line:

p(s) = 1/2, p(w) = 1/2, p(c) = 1/4, p(u) = 3/4,

where p( ) means "probability of" and s = strong, w = weak, c = changing,

u = unchanging.

Since each oracle consists of 6 lines, the probability of an oracle

with NO changing lines is (3/4)^6, that is, 3/4 to the sixth power.

Whenever you have a yes/no question (in this case, "is there at least

one changing line?") and the probability is constant (in this case, p(no

c's) = (3/4)^6 and p(at least one c) = 1-(3/4)^6), you get a BINOMIAL

distribution. The theory of such distributions then states that the

expected number of "yes" answers to the question out of N trials will

be p(yes)*N, and the expected number of "no" answers will be p(no)*N.

Since p(no)=(3/4)^6 and N=431, you should expect [(3/4)^6]*431 oracles

to show up with no changing lines. Call this E(nochange). (The accepted

mathematical abbreviation for "expected # of" is E( ), so E(no) is the

expected number of "no" answers to the question, E(xx) is the expected

number of repetitions of two identical oracles, etc.)

For comparison with your actual castings, you also need to know the

standard deviation sigma. Theory says it is [p(yes)*p(no)*N]^1/2,

that is, the square root of the product of the yes and no probabilities and

the number of trials.

As for the expected numbers of various patterns of repetition, they

are somewhat more complicated, but I can calculate them too, I just didn't

get to it yet. The basic idea is that you an prove from the table I gave

at the top of this letter that the question of whether a line is weak or

strong is statistically independent of the question of whether it is

changing or unchanging. You can see this as follows:

Assume a line is weak. Then it is a 6 or an 8, and there are three

ways to throw an 8 and only one way to throw a 6, so the probability of a 6

is 1/4. Therefore there is a 1/4 probability that the line is changing,

given that we know it is weak. But that's the same probability you

get if you DON'T know whether it's weak or strong, so knowledge of the line's

strength or weakness doesn't give you any new clue as to whether it's

changing or unchanging. Therefore the probabilities are independent.

That means that we can think of the process of generating an oracle as

two separate and independent steps: (A) Toss two coins. If they both

come up heads, the line is changing. (B) Toss one coin. If it comes up

heads, the line is strong. This process gives exactly the same probabilities

as the one you described to me, and is obviously composed of two

independent parts, one determining strength/weakness and the other

determining change/nochange.

To calculate the probability that two specific oracles x1, x2 will

match, you need to know whether they have changing lines. There are 4 cases:

1) If there are no changing lines in either oracle, then they must

match first try, i. e., they have one chance to match, x1=x2.

2) If x1 has a changing line and the x2 doesn't, then x2 could match

either x1 or x1' (where x1' is what x1 changes to), i. e., they have

two chances to match, x1=x2 or x1'=x2. Likewise, if x1 is unchanging and

x2 changes, then there are two chances to match, x1=x2 or x1=x2'.

3) If both oracles are changing, and exactly the same lines are

changing in both oracles, then they have two chances of matching, since either

all the lines match so x1=x2 (and then automatically x1'=x2', since they

change in the same way), or all the unchanging lines match and all the

changing lines mismatch, so x1=x2' (and then automatically x1'=x2).

4) Finally, if both oracles are changing but in different ways, there

are 4 chances for them to match: x1=x2, x1'=x2, x1=x2', or x1'=x2'.

Since the question of changing vs. unchanging is independent of the

question about strong vs. weak, I can break the calculation into two

steps:

First, calculate the probabilities of the 4 cases above. Call them

p(1), p(2), p(3), and p(4).

Second, calculate the probability of the match given only one chance.

Call it p(1match).

Then, since p(1) through p(4) are probabilities having to do with

changing vs. unchanging, they are independent of p(1match) which is about

strong vs. weak. Therefore, to calculate the total probability of a match

between two oracles x1 and x2, you can multiply and add: the total

probability of a match is p(match)= p(1)*p(1match)*1 + p(2)*p(1match)*2 +

p(3)*p(1match)*2 + p(4)*p(1match)*4, where the last number multiplied on in

each term is the number of chances to match for that case.

Now p(1match) is easy to calculate: since p(s)=1/2=p(w), the chance

of a match on each line is 1/2, i. e., there is a 1/2 chance that the first

line of x2 will match the first line of x1, etc. Then since each line

is generated independently, the probability of matching two oracles in

one try is just (1/2)^6. This is p(1match).

All I have left to do is to calculate p(1) through p(4) and plug them

into the formula I gave above. This will give the p(match), the

probability that any two specific oracles will match.

Now since we are assuming for purpose of argument that the oracles are

truly random, and each is generated independently, it does not matter

which two we pick. In other words, p(match) is the probability of

finding two consecutive oracles that match, or also two non-consecutive

oracles.

Therefore, the probability of finding xx is the same as x-x or x--x.

These are all p(match). Now finding xxx means that x1=x2 and x2=x3.

Each of these is p(match) and they are independent, since the fact x1=x2

shouldn't influence x3 in any way. Therefore the probability of xxx

is p(match)*p(match) = [p(match)]^2. All the other probabilities you

want to know can also be derived from p(match) in this way.

Then once you have all these probabilities, since the distribution is

binomial, you can use the formulas I gave above for the expected

number of occurrences of each pattern (E(xx), E(x-x), E(x--x) E(xxx), etc.) and

its standard deviation.

One word of caution though: When counting xx patterns, the xxx

patterns will get mixed up with them, since xxx means x1=x2 and x2=x3, so it

will be counted as two xx patterns. Similarly, xxxx will show up as three

xx patterns and two xxx patterns. If you want to find the expected

number of xx repetitions that are NOT embedded in these longer repetitions, you will need to take E( xx)-2*E(xxx).

Once I complete the calculations of p(1) through p(4) I'll get back to

you with hard numbers instead of formula and theory. In the mean time, I

hope this helps, (or at least gives you something to think about!)

Happy holidays!

Stuart Anderson

-----------------------

12/30/97

Hi again, Tony.

Here are the numerical results and the rest of the theory.

We still needed to calculate p(1) through p(4), which is done as follows:

Case p(1): neither oracle has any changing lines. Since the chance of a

given line NOT changing is 3/4 and there are 6 lines in each oracle, the

chance that all 6 lines will not change is (3/4)^6. Since both oracles are

assumed to be random and independent, the probability of case p(1) is

[(3/4)^6]*[(3/4)^6].

Case p(2): one oracle has changing lines and one does not. Since the

probability of no changing lines is (3/4)^6, the opposite case, namely

that there ARE some changing lines, has probability 1-(3/4)^6. Therefore

the probability of the first oracle having no changing lines and the

second having some changing lines is [(3/4^6]*[1-(3/4)^6]. There is also

the possibility that the second oracles is the one without changing lines,

while the first oracle has some; the probability of this is exactly the

same of course, and so the total probability of case p(2) is

2*[(3/4^6]*[1-(3/4)^6].

Case p(3): both oracles have exactly the same pattern of changing lines.

For each corresponding pair of lines in the two oracles, the probabilities

break down as follows: The probability that both lines are unchanging is

(3/4)*(3/4) = 9/16. The probability that both lines are changing is

(1/4)*(1/4) = 1/16. Since these are the two possible ways of matching,

the total probability of a match at each line position in the oracle pair

is 9/16 + 1/16 = 5/8. Therefore, the chance that all 6 pairs of lines

match (so that both oracles have the same pattern of changing lines) is

(5/8)^6. HOWEVER, this includes the case p(1), since if neither oracle

has any changing lines, then the pattern of changing lines is the same for

both oracles, namely, there aren't any. Therefore to get the pure case

p(3) without case p(1) mixed up in it, we must subtract p(1), i. e., we

have the net probability p(3) = (5/8)^6 - [(3/4)^6]*[(3/4)^6].

Case p(4): both oracles have changing lines and the patterns are

different. This is now very easy, since the 4 cases cover all

possibilities, and the total probability must add up to 1. Therefore,

p(4) = 1-p(1)-p(2)-p(3) = 1-(2*[(3/4^6]*[1-(3/4)^6])-(5/8)^6.

From these formulas, you can calculate the following explicit numbers:

p(1)=0.031676352

p(2)=0.146302164

p(3)=0.027928293

p(4)=0.794093192

Notice that nearly 80% of the time, the two oracles will both have

changing lines and in different patterns.

From the formula I gave you last time, p(1match)= (1/2)^6=0.015625000., or

a roughly 1.6% chance. Putting all this into the formula from last time,

p(match)= p(1match)*[1*p(1) + 2*(p(2)+p(3)) + 4*p(4)] = .055570469, about

5.6%.

This is the probability of finding a repetition of oracles, but as I said

before, if you had a longer pattern of repetitions XXX, there would be 2

pairs XX embedded in it, so to count accurately, you have to make sure

that when you are counting pairs and you come to a triple, you count it as

two pairs. Likewise, a quadruple has 3 pairs embedded in it, etc.,

although a quadruple is so unlikely that I bet there aren't any in your

data!

Also, with 431 oracles, there are 430 positions where pairs are possible

(the last oracle can't match the one that follows, since there isn't one),

and 429 positions for patterns xxx and x-x, and 428 places for x--x.

Now I can give you all the numbers you want:

Pattern possible probability expected std dev

XX+1 430 .055570469 23.895 4.7505

XX-1

X-X 429 .055570469 23.834 4.7450

X--X 428 .055570469 23.784 4.7395

XXX 429 .003088077 1.325 1.1492

The first three cases XX, XX+1, XX-1 are identical. As you can see, you

should expect about 24 +/- 5 of each of the patterns except XXX. For it,

you should expect 0, 1, or 2 occurrences. That's if you want to stay within

1 standard deviation of the average.

You could reject the hypothesis that the data are random at the 90%

confidence level if your data are more than 2 standard deviations away

from the average. In this case, for the first 5 lines of the table above,

you would accept the hypothesis that the data are random if the number of

occurrences lies in the range 24 +/- 2*5, that is, between 14 and 34.

Fewer than 14 or more than 34 occurrences of any of these patterns would be

cause to reject the null hypothesis at the 90% level. As for the last

line, 4 or more triples XXX would be cause to reject the null hypothesis.

Finally, here are the expected number and standard deviation of unchanging

oracles. I gave the formula last time; it's only necessary to plug in the

numbers: p(no c's) = (3/4)^6 = 0.177978516, p(at least 1 c) = 1-p(no c's)

= 0.822021484, and the number possible is 431. Therefore, there is the

following additional line in the table:

pattern possible probability expected std dev

UNCHANGING 431 0.177978516 76.709 7.9408

Again, 90% level rejection of the null hypothesis occurs at about 2

standard deviations, which in this case means that a result within

77 +/- 2*8 is random. You should reject the null hypothesis if the number

of unchanging oracles is greater than 93 or less than 61.

Well, these are (I think) all the numbers you asked for. By the way, all

these calculations are based on the my understanding that 6 and 8 are

weak, 7 and 9 are strong, 6 and 9 are changing, and 7 and 8 are

unchanging. Do I have that right? If not, please tell me so; it's no

trouble to recalculate the numbers now that the theory is in place.(ed. note, this is accurate, the numbers 7 and 8 generate unchanging lines.)

Also, in my last email, I mentioned an alternate method of generating the

oracles where you flipped 2 coins to determine changing vs. unchanging and

1 coin to determine weak vs. strong. I didn't mean to say that that was

the way I thought you really did it. I just meant that the method I

described would generate precisely the same probabilities as the real

method, and that it was easier for me to think about mathematically.

Anyway, I hope that's what you wanted. Drop a line if you have any

questions about any of this. I'm home till January 5, but I check my work

email regularly from here.

Good luck with the rest of your project.

Stuart Anderson

-------------

1/4/98

Tony, it looks like I made a slight calculation error. I forgot to punch

in the factor or 2 in the formula for p(2). All the formulae I gave you

are correct, but of course this throws all the numbers off (slightly).

The correct numbers are as follows:

p(1)= 0.031676352

p(2)= 0.292604327

p(3)= 0.027928293

p(4)= 0.647791028

p(1match)= 0.015625000

p(match)= 0.050998527

Pattern possible probability expected std dev

XX+1 430 0.050998527 21,929 4.5619

XX-1

X-X 429 0.050998527 21.878 4.5566

X--X 428 0.050998527 21.827 4.5513

XXX 429 0.001476728 0.63352 0.79535

UNCHANGING 431 0.177978516 76.709 7.9408

As you can see, p(1), p(3) and p(1match) were already correct. Correcting

p(2) changes p(4) and p(match), which changes everything else except the

probabilities of UNCHANGING. (Good thing I had this in a spread

sheet...click, click, all fixed!)

In the correct computation, it is 65% of the time that two oracles will

both have changing lines in different patterns, and the chance of a match

between any two oracles works out to almost exactly 5.1%.

Also, I must admit I made a theoretical error in computing p(XXX). I

originally just said, X1=X2 and X2=X3, so it's just two matches, and the

probability is [p(match)]^2. That's wrong, because X1=X2 can happen in

several ways when there are changing lines in X1 or X2 or both. For

example, if X1=X2' (remember, X2' is what X2 changes to), then X3 has to

match X2', and it's no good if X3 matches X2, since that won't be the same

as X1. so you wouldn't have three in a row. That means you have to be

careful about which version, X2 or X2', matches X3. It has to be the same

version that matches X1. Therefore, in cases p(1), p(2) and p(4), X3 has

only one "target" to match, but if you have case p(3), then X1, X1' are

both the same as X2, X2', so X3 has 2 "targets" to match. Therefore, the

true calculation for p(XXX) is like this:

Cases p(1) through p(4) each break down into two subcases: p(u) in which

X3 is unchanging, and p(c) in which X3 is changing. p(u) = 0.177978516

from the table above, and p(c) = 1-p(u) = 0.822021484. These

probabilities are independent of p(1) through p (4), since they refer to a

different oracle, X3. Therefore, the probabilities multiply, so for

example, for case p(1u), the probability is p(1)*p(u). Also, in case p(u),

X3 has only 1 try to hit a target, while in case p(c) it has two tries.

The total n umber of ways to hit a target is (# of targets)*(# of tries).

Then you have the following table of cases (where the column "ways X1=X2"

is from the discussion of cases p(1) through p(4) in my first email):

#ways #ways

Case probability X1=X2 (X1=X2)=X3 product

p(1u) 0.005637710 1 1 0.005637710

p(1c) 0.026038642 1 2 0.052077284

p(2u) 0.052077284 2 1 0.104154568

p(2c) 0.240527043 2 2 0.962108172

p(3u) 0.004970636 2 2 0.019882544

p(3c) 0.022957657 2 4 0.183661256

p(4u) 0.115292886 4 1 0.461171544

p(4c) 0.532498142 4 2 4.259985136

Total 6.048678214

Each case contributes some probability to a XXX match, and the total is

p(XXX)=

p(1u)*[p(1match)*#ways X1=X2]*[p(1match)*#ways (X1=X2)=X3]

+ p(1c)* " "

+ ...

+ p(4c)* " " .

This total is the contribution of all the ways to match times the

probability of each case. Since [p(1match)]^2 factors out of each term in

the sum, we can get the true p(XXX) by multiplying Total*[p(1match)]^2 =

0.001476728. Whew! That's more complicated than I thought it would be!

A few last notes... I was looking at chi-square theory, and my reference

says that if you want to use it, you have to break your patterns down into

mutually exclusive categories, Now the way you have it set up, you can do

a separate chi-square calculation for each pattern; for instance, you

could take the two cases (A) X1 = X2 or (B) X1 not= X2. They are mutually

exclusive, so you can do chi-square on them. But then you get several

separate chi-square calculations, one for each pattern. I think you would

get a stronger, more incisive statistical correlation if you could combine

all of your patterns into a single chi-square calculation.

To do this, you have to be very careful to define your patterns so that

they are mutually exclusive. Also, since patterns can overlap, you have

to be careful to count each pattern only once. If you want to go for this

method, I'll set it up. Most of the work for it is already done, since

it's only a modification of the calculations I've already done. Still, it

will take another couple of hours for me, and you'll have to re-count your

patterns according to certain exact standard methods; so how about if you

email me and tell me whether you want to go ahead? If so, I'll get to

work on it. If not, well, I think the numbers are pretty good as they

are, and I'd like to see a copy of your paper when it's done.

Take care,

Stuart

-------------------

1/28/98

Hi, Tony.

I've computed the new expected values and standard deviations for XX+1 and

XX-1. Since I already had the spreadsheet for the sticks up and running,

I did both sticks and coins, just for comparison. Since your data are 90%

coins, of course, you'll only be interested in the coin numbers.

The revised computation is based on our phone conversation of Tuesday, in

which you clarified for me the way you counted the XX+1 and XX-1

occurrences. My understanding now is that you only counted times

when a single casting gave an oracle changing from X to X+1 or X-1. You

were NOT counting X showing up in one casting and X+1 or X-1 showing up in

the next day's casting. Do I have that all right? If so, then the

following numbers are correct:

method pattern probability expect std dev

Stick X-->X+1 0.00855 3.685 1.911

X-->X-1 0.01124 4.845 2.189

Coin X-->X+1 0.01006 4.336 2.072

X-->X-1 SAME SAME SAME

***

Editorial insert based on conversation with Stuart, 1/28/98: The data cannot distinguish the difference between X-->X+1 and X-->X-1, therefore the probablitities, expected values and std dev must be combined with the following result:

P= 0.02012

E= 8.672

S= 2.915

***

These expected and standard deviation values are all computed based on 431

oracles, i.e., if all the oracles were with yarrow sticks, you would

expect the X-->X+1 pattern about 3.685 times. Since so much of your data

is from the coin method, you should just use the coin numbers "as is." If

you wanted to be *really* picky, you could separate your data and compute

the expected number from each type, and then add them up -- but the

numbers are so close anyway, that it wouldn't change your answer.

(I just included the stick calculation to show you the interesting fact

that X-->X+1 happens less often than X-->X-1 using yarrow sticks. Some of

the numbers on my spreadsheet came out really wild: for example, oracle

#1 almost never changes to #2. It happens only 4 times in every million

castings of the oracle, whereas in the coin method it would happen

something like 250 times in every million castings. On the other hand,

oracle #22 likes to change to #23. That happens about 61000 times in

every million oracles, whereas in the coin method it happens about only

about 20000 times out of a million.)

Well, I think this is finally all the way you want it. Sorry about the

misunderstanding. Best of luck in finishing up your paper.

Stuart Anderson

Appendix G Sample Reflective Essay Using Oracle Method

Reflective Essay for:

Tony Granillo

Graduate Management Program 1998

Seabeck Retreat

September 1997

My reflective process for the next three months will be guided by the oracle of the I Ching as recorded in my PEP. The following reflections and insights came from this process in answering the question: What were the meanings in the events of our just past weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

The Oracle - September 15, 1997

Significant events which occurred and were enlightened by the I Ching oracle:

Our module check-in on Friday afternoon brought forth three traumatic and emotional stories from Keith, Dan and me. This was a break-through for me as it was the first time I fully shared deeply the details of the turmoil in my life.
The Friday evening video discussion was disrupted by my leaving the group because of fatigue and boredom. I was later woken and forced to rejoin the discussion to learn my disappearance had caused major turmoil in the well being of the group.
A subset of the cohort met after the Friday video to discuss with Don the events of the evening. This conversation went on well past midnight. I was not a part of the conversation and heard of it the next day at breakfast.
A community session was used to confront me with a group issue around my control and power over the group, one of our most pressing group problems. This was something that was very apparent and uncomfortable to me and yet neither I nor the group seemed to be able to bring it to a public forum in a way which could resolve it. Instead I had become the focus of all group tension around power and control. This was a break-through but it took someone outside our group, Mary Lynn Pulley, our guest speaker, to bring voice to the question. We achieved another break-through when the group acknowledged our co-creation in the situation and resolved to allow me out of this role. From this point forward I finally felt accepted by this group.
We achieved break-through with the creation of two norms of behavior as a group and one other tentatively. We worked through these norms together and agreed to keep them posted at our future modules. We also agreed to accept the reality that these norms could very well need to be revisited.
We achieved break-through on Sunday afternoon. When confronted with the choice to continue working community questions or doing preliminary work on establishing Student Design Module topics we chose to continue working community questions. In the past we have always taken every opportunity to avoid community questions and used the content work of the cohort as a convenient way of doing so.
A community session was used to confront Sharon and Roger with the group issue of their pairing to the exclusion of the rest of the cohort. This behavior formed the second largest problem for our group together with the problem previous described around power and control. And again we had never before found a way to bring the question to our public forum for resolution. This was a break-through because the group was able to bring voice to an unspoken behavior we had previously reserved for private conversation. Again, the group acknowledged our co-creation of the situation and began to explore the topic of exclusion and safety in our group.

What were the meanings in the events of our just past weekend module of the GMP 98 cohort?

---------------

------ -------

---------------

------ -------

Youthful Folly always brings advice. Look carefully for the message.

Mo'^e'ng Youthful Folly

---------------

------ -------

---------------

------ -------

Our cohort is described as immature. We find ourselves stopping at the brink of perceived danger. We must plunge into the abyss and trust we will fill the chasms of our empty wisdom in so doing.

The Judgment

Youthful Folly has success.

It is not I who seek the young fool;

The young fool seeks me.

At the first oracle I inform him.

If he asks two or three times, it is importunity.

If he importunes, I give him no information.

Perseverance furthers.

The Image

A spring wells up at the foot of the mountain:

The image of Youth.

Thus the superior man fosters his character

By thoroughness in all that he does.

Character develops like a spring, gradually and steadily filling up all gaps and flowing onward.

Our cohort’s development is analyzed as developing, slowly, like a spring. In time we will have filled in our gapping inexperience and be able to move on to greater challenges.

As I examined the oracle the events of the past weekend are brought into a clear focus around the hexagram of Youthful Folly. Taking the images and ideas from the reading a number of insights can be taken and used to reflect on for our cohort around the themes of our group and our teachers.

Our group lack of wisdom, as suggested by this reading, is very apparent when we examine our ability to deal with group processes, which was the dominate theme of our retreat at Seabeck. As can be seen even in the past history of the cohort this has been the biggest challenge faced by the group. Our inability to establish explicit and agreed norms of behavior led to severe problems as we confronted our authority and learning objectives as a group. The oracle takes this opportunity to present this observation at a time when it is clear we are ready to deal with it and, in the image of the spring, fill our gaps and flow onward.

This weekend was different, perhaps because of the tension and build-up described in the pre-module oracle of Break-through. We were ready to jump and simply awaited the catalyst. This appeared on Friday night when my leaving the group caused such a disruption. A subset of the group began the work that evening and then, with the help of our outside guest, we finally gave voice to a large community problem, around my power and control over the group, the next day. This plunge into the abyss showed us the foolishness of our folly. We survived. We were able to speak the unspeakable and see the perspectives of those in the controversy. Me, as I struggled from a focus of attention, which though I may have created it, was thrust upon me with such solidarity as to paralyze the group from developing its own power and control. The group, as we discovered our inner fear of power and control, words which brought up images which seemed contrary to our purposes together. but which are needed in some form for every social interaction to succeed.

So the plunge showed us we could survive when we have the courage to directly address our group behavior. From that point it was as if the spring was released. We created the beginnings of norms. We addressed the second of our major group issues as focused around Sharon and Roger, exclusion and safety. And, perhaps of most significance, when faced with the choice to go away from group process work, with this second major question unresolved, we did not stop at the brink of the abyss as was our previous experience. Instead we plunged in and began to fill the chasm, just as the oracle of Youthful Folly suggests is the way beyond the abyss.

There is a strong message to our cohort concerning the relationship with our teachers which was also very present during our retreat. The oracle counsels us to seek out an experienced teacher. This need was met at the Seabeck retreat in the person of RoseAnn Stevenson. RoseAnn guided nearly every group session we had at the retreat with the exception of Friday evening and Saturday morning with Mary Lynn Pulley. She provided a structured approach and a light hand as she allowed us to approach and then test our ability to deal with the group questions previously described.

The oracle’s caution to the student about questioning especially caught my eye in this respect. The oracle warns of questioning that is mistrustful or unintelligent and counsels silence from the teacher at these times. This very closely describes how our cohort often questioned RoseAnn this week. We would use questions about the negotiation process she had introduced to suggest it wasn’t appropriate to the topics we had at hand. We wanted her to defend her process. Instead she was willing to let it go and allow us to head in our own direction without her. We knew from past experience where that could lead (not good) and her act of not-answering led us back to a method we knew we could get her help with. She kept control of this process the entire weekend in this way. Allowing us to explore fully our group interest while intervening only when we needed the guidance of an experienced teacher.

Was the oracle of Youthful Folly of useful assistance in understanding the meaning of events at the GMP 98 retreat? Was it relevant to the happenings of the weekend?

The oracle provides a metaphor of our group, describing us as a youth who’s immaturity has paralyzed our ability to move forward in the face of danger. The metaphor extends to the danger which can be seen in working group processes when it involves confronting people issues directly and in a public forum. This is not something that people tend to be comfortable with in general. In our public group life we are trained to submerge our feelings about others and "get on with business". In our cohort environment we have not had this luxury. The design of the GMP brings the conflicts between people into play on a regular basis. Not to put people at odds over personal differences, rather, to show how group processes can impact and influence the behaviors of individuals in groups. Our cohort fell into the typical pattern of submerging feeling and allowing them to explode in a myriad of unrelated incidents. We all knew what was underlying these incidents, one needed only listen in the hallways during breaks. Yet, we could not bring ourselves to bring small private conversations into the group as a whole.

Given the above discussion I would have to conclude that the oracle does provide useful assistance and help in understanding the events of the September retreat module. It also points to our future development and provides a way to speak of how to pursue our objective. By keeping in mind the immaturity of our development and considering ourselves as a small spring at the headwaters of a great river further downstream we can see how a plunge into the abyss of our fears can achieve great ends. Further, the counsel for and about our teacher has also come at an opportune time. As we begin our last year of study, it is a good time to remind both student and teacher of the interdependence of their roles in progressing toward learning objectives together.

Tony,

Great analysis and strong metaphoric reasoning. I am not qualified to comment on the I Ching but your use of the message you gained from it seems to me to be insightful and useful. I hope this continues.

I also want to appreciate your strength, thoughtfulness and risk-taking during the weekend at Seabeck. I do not underestimate the impact on the group of your check-in on Friday. This was another way in which I saw the community mirroring its members so that strength in one will be reflected in strength in the other. I think you’ll have a good year together. Thanks!

Don

Appendix H Sample Reflective Essay Without Oracle Method

Reflective Essay for:

Tony Granillo

Graduate Management Program 1998

November Econ II - 1996

Prologue

It happens again…or perhaps it was programmed by my epilogue last month. In any case my reflective once more comes on Friday night and must be captured or I may not sleep!

* * * * * *

It’s the RELATIONSHIPS, STUPID!!!

I awake and can not sleep…

…the thoughts…

So much unspoken, so much to discover of this group. I tune out of the content and watch my classmates.

Am I the only one who sees this? Is it really there?

Why am I doing this?

How would things be different if I just let things be?

Things would work themselves out…through wu wei…or would they? They don’t work out at work when I ignore them. Not now that I can see them?

And I continue to bring them to the group…UNCOMFORT…to the surface…Because I see pain? Under the surface…Hindering our learning…That’s the paradox…the pain is there and the pain is not there.

It’s there whether we recognize it our not.

It’s not there unless someone points it out.

…and so I can return to bed now, these notes will allow me to sleep and I will write my reflective later. Having captured the thoughts I will know they can not escape.

It’s not to be.

I lie in bed, and the real point screams out at me…

IT’S THE RELATIONSHIPS, STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!

That is the content of GMP. It was also the content of the Executive Development Program at Wharton. And it’s the content of what I need to do at work!

IT’S THE RELATIONSHIPS, STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!

And we use the an imagined content - Economics, Finance, reorgs, outsourcing studies - to hide from the real content. It so easy to work on because its so hard and difficult. So painful all those imagined contents. So tough to solve. If only I dig in deeper. Work harder. Make more lists of problems. Identify enough action items. Then I’ll be able to solve all these problems that confront me in the work I have before me…

…then I can think about who these people are who travel in this game with me.

After I have learned the imagined content, after I know enough…

….then I can think about who these people are who travel in this game with me.

And "then" never comes. Only another question, another problem, another piece of imagined content. Such delicious pain. Another problem to solve…

….then I can think about who these people are who travel in this game with me.

Because I don’t really want to solve the real content, the real problem…

WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE WHO TRAVEL IN THIS GAME WITH ME?

How do they think? How do they feel? What are the daily life complications that color the words and actions I experience from them? What could they bring to the solution of the imagined content? What are they hiding because its not safe? Why do I create such unsafe environments that hide so much of the people around me, from me?

That’s the real content…of GMP, of work, of life!

And we get no time to deal with it. Not in GMP, not at work, not in life!

Why?

Because to say it brings the PAIN. The pain of knowing its there and not there.

And why not in GMP? Isn’t that one of its objectives? But how would we get such a curriculum accepted as a graduate program in MANAGEMENT? There would be no CONTENT for the accreditation boards to sanction. So, after we deal with the imagined content of GMP…

….then we can learn about who the people are who travel in GMP with you.

And "then" never comes…

So please! Don’t point it out to me and I won’t have to deal with it til I’m ready - NEVER!

And there it is, whether I want to recognize it or not.

The adaptive work of relationships. Understanding my fellow human being. Sharing my weakness so it can be safe for them to share theirs.

It don’t feel so good right now. And…

It sure feels good right now.

PARADOX, the only reality. "To be, or not to be…that is the question." It’s also the answer!

I have this sense that my cohorts (I love the image of that word!) see this crazy - maybe strong - person, who seems so easily (and irritatingly) to speak what’s on his mind. What they don’t see is the internal dialogue that keeps saying:

"Why do you do this to yourself? It hurts!!!"

"Hide yourself! Don’t bring these things up. People don’t want to see them."

"Why do you invite the looks of PAIN that ‘one more time Tony has to bring up MENTORS…or…NORMS!’? Can’t he just let it go away!!!!! WHY DOES HAVE TO PUSH IT!!!"

So why do I speak through this dialogue? Past this fear and pain?

Because of Wharton, I think. I lost a great deal of fear there, of these things. And as I speak these things and see this pain, in small ways and with small steps I see not-pain emerge.

Short snatches of conversation, from some, not all.

"Thank you for bringing it up."

"I really appreciate it when…"

"It makes it easier for me to do X, when I see you do it."

"Thank you for sharing why you do what you do, and how you think."

"You don’t drive me as crazy as you used to anymore."

And the pain, for me, remains because I know(?) that not all feel that way. That for some(?) all that exists is the PAIN, for them, of this irritating, loud-mouth who just won’t let it rest!

And also because, I made my decision long ago, even before Wharton, which in many ways has simply provided me a vocabulary to speak with...

…I will be who I am. I believe that who I am is of value to the world. If others do not, I can not do too much about that. If I try to be what I am not, I will not be me. I’ll be some other not-me that that is constantly trying to be what everyone wants…and failing. If what I am is not what those around me want, then I am prepared to live with the consequences, the hurt, the possibility of failure.

Because the failure of losing the inner peace of being true to me would hurt much more.

Epilogue

As I re-read and proof this on Sunday I feel better. Some of the time to deal with the relationships did occur. In the added community time on Saturday (a little), in the added community time on Sunday (a very small first step). It gives me some hope that the program will give me the practice I so desperately want in working the real content…of work, of life.

I also wonder where this process of reflection leads. I thought I’d been at it for some time with my journal, tai ji, Tao, I Ching. I see now how surface that has been (though perhaps deeper than others?), and I am anxious, excited, energized at the possibility of discovery that lies ahead!

Appendix I Oracle Spreadsheets

Spreadsheets are only available in the hard text version.